— Feature, Musings —04.10.2024 11:29 AM
My latest: don’t assume, Team Tory
You can’t assume anything in politics.
That’s a Tip O’Neill truism. He had lots of them. Thomas P. O’Neill was a Democrat, and the Speaker of the House of Representatives for a decade in the Reagan and Bush years. He was the guy who came up with “all politics is local” line, too. You’ve heard that one.
From my current distant perch, I decided to run a poll that would be wildly unscientific. No random sampling, no weighting of results. None of that.
I started with a safe assumption: Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party is poised to win the next federal general election. Big time. For most of this year, he’s been ahead by double digits in the polls – sometimes even edging close to 20 points ahead. That’s not just a win. That’s a Grit-dammerung massacre.
So, I polled the Conservatives who follow me on X, a place where conservatives are very active. I asked them what is motivating them to vote Conservative, and I gave them four options.
After two days, three thousand people responded. More votes are still coming in. But so far, here’s what they are saying about why they are voting Conservative:
• Anti-Trudeau: 20 per cent
• Pro-Poilievre: 11 per cent
• Both options, but more the first: 42 per cent
• Both options, but more the second: 27 per cent
I’ve given people a week to respond, so things may move around a bit. But from the debut of the “poll,” the numbers have been pretty consistent. The vast majority of Conservative vote depends on Justin Trudeau still being there.
You don’t have to be a political scientist to see the danger, here. A pretty big chunk of Conservative support is opposition to Trudeau, not support for Pierre Poilievre.
I did the little X survey because it’s what my gut had been telling me, and my political gut is always more accurate than any pollster, 20 times out of 20. It rarely steers me the wrong way.
So, if the “poll” and my gut are right, one very important question arises: what happens when Justin Trudeau goes, as I believe he will before the next election?
Well, for Tories, it could get a bit bouncy. It could get kind of bad, even.
Here’s why. In elections, most people are what we call low-information voters. They don’t have. a lot of time for political nonsense. They may know something about a party’s platform, and they may actually remember their local candidate’s name (unlikely, but possible). But most of the time, the leader is the thing that matters most. Who the leader is – how he or she is – affects vote choices more than anything else.
That’s why wild things happen when parties change leaders. Take a look at our recent history.
In 1993, I was Jean Chretien’s Special Assistant and ran his election war room. When Kim Campbell became Tory leader that Summer, she instantly became the most popular Prime Minister in the history of Canada.
Hard to believe, I know, given that we reduced her party to two seats. But after the Tory leadership race was over, Campbell was ahead of us Grits in virtually every poll – in the month of July 1993, by double-digits.
Her mistake was calling the election right away, before people got to know her. Which, ironically, was John Turner’s mistake, too (I helped run his youth campaign, and I know).
Turner became Liberal leader in the hot Summer of 1984. He immediately went ahead in the polls – again, in multiple polls, by as much as ten points. He wanted to call the election right away; my future boss, Chretien, counselled him to wait, to let Canadians get to know him. He didn’t wait. He got massacred by Brian Mulroney.
Another example: Michael Ignatieff. For a brief time, I advised him, too. When he cruelly fired all of my friends, the people who made him leader, I quit. That’s not how a real leader behaves.
But before all that, when he won the Liberal leadership with 97 per cent of the vote in Vancouver, Ignatieff, too, was consistently ahead. Every single poll, in the late Spring and early Summer of 2009, showed Ignatieff ahead of Stephen Harper. Not by double-digits, but by enough to win a possible majority. He and his new team ran a terrible campaign and ended up in third place.
Same with Justin Trudeau (sorry, Tories). As soon as he became Liberal leader in 2013, the polls went his way. And so on and so on.
The moral of the story: when you get a new leader, all bets are off. It ain’t called a honeymoon for nothing, folks.
If Trudeau goes (and he will), and if there’s a shiny new Liberal leader (and there will be), things will change.
Trust me (and Tip O’Neill): in politics, assumptions are really dangerous.
Don’t assume this one is in the bag, Team Tory. It ain’t.
Nothing is ever in the bag, but one thing I would take to the bank is Justin’s ego.
He just can’t go.
He is the Liberal Party and in his own mind he is Canada too.
“He just can’t go”
I agree. What would Justin do? Who would employ him? China? Nope, they’re not stupid.
What new job would provide Justin with a private jet, a home, a vacation home, a chef?
What new role would provide him with $6000 a night hotel rooms?
Some liberals may hope Trudeau leaves, but I don’t think he will quit. And as for a palace coup, who would want to be Liberal leader with the Trudeau economic legacy hanging over them as they go to the polls?
If you believe the media, he is worth close to 100 million but no way does that provide the lifestyle he is currently enjoying. 9 figures just isn’t what it used to be. So he will need a large ongoing source of funds and I don’t think he has any groupies rich enough left to provide him with that. Because it is not 2015. I bet you Morneau would not lend him his French chateaux, for example.
How on earth could Justin be worth $100 million? Did he turn his blind trust over to Nancy Pelosi to invest it?
Think about it for a minute.
I don’t think it’s possible on a PM’s salary to amass a fortune of $100 million.
He must have another source of income.
Chrystia Freeland, that’s who.
Kim Campbell 2.0?
I think she would refuse the ‘honour’.
Douglas,
How much is she worth?
A legend in her own mind.
He’s probably going to go. I’ll support him if he stays, but I think he realizes his time is up.
Today’s housing announcement: yet another bid to magically turn the Liberal Party fortunes around.
Folks aren’t paying attention. They’re not buying anything he says.
But he’ll continue to hang in there because … he has nowhere to go.
It is mathematically impossible for them to build 3.9 million homes by 2030. If you passed grade 2 math, that would be obvious.
Can’t see Poilièvre and Co., thinking they have the next election in the bag.
They’re too savvy.
And they know the Liberals will be setting traps in the months to come.
As for PMJT, he’s not going to quit.
And neither Sachit Mehra (President, Liberal Party of Canada) nor National Director Azam Ishmael are going to tell their guy to step down.
If they did, he wouldn’t listen.
We’ll be going to the polls, October 2025.
Between now and then, this country is in for a very rough ride.
Run like you are losing.
Martin,
That’s what Harper did in both 2004 and 2006.
Worked in 2006.
This week the transposition study of the 2021 election was released. Under the same conditions, the new riding boundaries will give the CPC 7 more seats (126), the Liberals 157 (down 3), the NDP 24 (minus one), the bloc 34 (plus two) and the Greens 2 (no change). That is significant.
The Liberal Party knows its in trouble. Maybe the PM doesn’t want to go, but if big donors stop giving and powerful people start leaking information to the media, he’ll probably resign.
Warren,
“Both options, but more the first: 42 percent”
My choice.
Let me chime in on your scenario, which is still distinctly possible: first off, the more a leader says he’s staying publicly either means he’s really going but no timeline has been set as yet OR he is refusing to leave, but the pressure is on and BUILDING.
My money is now on scenario two, where Liberal pollsters are talking about a likely decimation that will make Michael’s numbers look like a victory lap. Secondly, Carney is still out there almost daily publicly subtly ramping up the pressure on HimselfTM to take a fucking hike yesterday.
Carney is well established in Big Money circles. Why would anyone with his cv walk away from that kind of income and influence to face a governing dumpster fire that is 20% behind in the polls?
People like Carney are better suited for a Coronation and friendly takeover of a well oiled machine with promise of government in the years ahead. 4 years leading a rump party in opposition isn’t very appealing, imho.
WV,
In a word, E-G-O.
Like all Liberals, Carney thinks he can walk on water and pull off another 2015. Never say never as Warren would say but nevertheless unlikely unless Pierre blows it in the campaign. If he listens to Ana he won’t. If he listens to Byrne…HA, HA, HA. Byrne, the CPC’s Telford. LOL.
Hilarious: The Carney Show, daily appearances with a media person just happening to record the moment.
This only pisses off PMJT, more.
Meanwhile, the Liberal caucus hides, the shameful, gutless wonders that they are.
PMJT’s strategy: play for time; watch the November Presidential Gong Show play out, south of the border; and pray for a Trump victory.
Trump was the Great Distraction, once before. It might help the Dauphin, a second time.
Probably not, but it’s the only card Justin has left to play: he and only he can protect Canada against the Disruptor.
Douglas,
That’s almost as funny as HimselfTM’s pathetic attempt to get into AUKUS through the back door. Himself, everyone’s idea of a national security sieve. Too fucking funny. They want Japan in but not this clown.
Ronald, you’re insulting clowns to associate Him with them.
Shawn Fraser has a promising future.
Not if people don’t know how to spell his name right. He needs to win his seat back first. Good luck with that. And he is the guy that let all the immigrants in that caused the housing crisis he is now in charge of fixing. The Liberals have suddenly discovered there is gambling going on in their establishment.
Martin,
If Peter’s running, he’ll take it in a New York minute. So much for party leader Fraser…
I’m hearing Pete’s seriously thinking of running.
Douglas,
Peter has a good relationship with Pierre, so I for one, will be incredibly surprised if MacKay is not our candidate.
He would not even need to campaign.
Where?
Douglas,
Casablanca.
In case Douglas missed the reference:
https://youtu.be/SjbPi00k_ME?feature=shared
Justin and the rest of his peeps have just discovered that letting too many people into the country has driven up housing prices. No shit, Sherlock. And now they say they will build 3.9 million homes by 2031 and anyone who passed grade 3 math knows that is a mathematical impossibility. But the Tru-anons are all patting themselves on the back with self congratulatory nonsense. It is laughable.
And coming up-the dental roll-out disaster.
That maybe the case but it looks like Poilièvre is baiting Zoolander with Mark Carney referring to him as his common sense successor. This is IMHO baiting Zoolander to hold his position to try and put Poilièvre in his place.
I don’t think Pierre is worried about Carney either. Kind of a no lose situation for him.
I know better than to argue with a person with a winning record on election night.
But, but, but…
There is a very shallow talent pool of Liberals who could win a leadership race and become an instant contender. Most of the people most likely to run are chained to the current dumpster fire. And it’s hard to imagine M. Carney would be attracted to clean up the dumpster fire and turn it into an election day miracle. Especially when the public accounts are mired in a structural deficit and interest rates are eating away at spending room.
Freeland wants the top job, real bad.
If she gets it, the Conservatives might have a decent shot at 275 seats, and maybe win a few seats in Toronto and Montreal.
Douglas,
Yeah, Freeland, the person no one voted for at NATO.
Exactly. The next Liberal leader is going to have to explain why he’s different than Trudeau and that will be difficult to do by those who defended and justified his conduct. That’s what happens when you make your political party all about you. Its a similar situation in the States and the future of the post-Trump republican party.
– Poilievre’s biggest enemy right now is time… He’s had that lead (10-20 points) for about a year now I think… The idea that he will maintain that for two plus years consecutively is ridiculous. Things will tighten up, count on it.
– A PM losing an election by 20% is big news…. Squandering a 20% lead is equally big news… and don’t count on the next election not being framed around Poilievre’s squandered lead… There’s nothing voters enjoy more than watching a sure thing get blown to pieces. There’s a visceral / gladiatorial aspect to that sort of drama that will always capture the imagination of the low attention voter.
– Warren’s poll is legit and here’s why I say that: Tory partisans are much more inclined to juice up a poll than Liberals. Why? Because they tend to be over represented by cranky, embittered contrarians than Liberals. More inclined to vent their anger in an internet poll….whereas Liberals like to assume that they are winning all the time. Tories might find that offensive, but that’s my personal observation having worked many campaigns over the years. Add to that, Warren is not so popular in partisan Liberal circles these days… So I suspect the Tory numbers in that poll are actually a bit sweeter than exists in the real world.
That’s right Shawn, Poilievre isn’t a likeable guy, so he’s just spring boarded from Trudeau’s unpopularity. Peaked too soon and it will be interesting to see how much it tightens with a new leader – something I think is inevitable.
Don’t underestimate how patently irritating Poilievre is to most of the electorate. This former 20 year Conservative will not vote for the Pierre party under any circumstances. Given how passionately he fought under Stephen Harper to undermine Canadian democracy, he simply cannot be trusted. Honestly, Trudeau might be the lesser (but still incredibly shitty) evil here.
Sure thing. The problem with your “thesis” is that the younger voters he is now attracting don’t have the “benefit” of your PDS “experience”.
Poilièvre gets retail politics. His people get social media.
Patently irritating to most of the electorate?
He’s drawing strong crowds, and the party’s fundraising numbers are at record numbers.
Trudeau, the lesser evil? Says who? You and Justin?
Not to mention that, even if true, Jason’s guy is much more irritating to even more people. Back to the binary choice.
Martin,
Right now, we’re at the top of the hill. Pray for no earthquake. It’s very much our election to lose. Hope we don’t blow it.
I mean three parties do the premiers bullshit thing and then precisely nobody turns it into a bona fide non-confidence motion. Sort of like 1+ 1 = 3…
He isn’t that great. He operates a baloney factory and a rage machine that’s very likely to turn people off. His saving grace is that Trudeau has been around long enough that he unpopular, like happens to almost every leader – Trudeau is likely to step down and that’s a lot of bad news for Pierre Poison.
Face it folks, Warren hit the nail on the head, and conservatives – if Trudeau decides to resign, are gonna be vulnerable. People are getting sick of that angry, mouthy, lippy moron Pierre Poison. He’s an obnoxious, delusional and disrespectful little jerk.
Soon to be known as PM “obnoxious, delusional and disrespectful little jerk”. Cope.
They aren’t Tories either. Pierre and his gang at the baloney factory put an end to that party years ago. This election will pit a delusional extreme against the moderate middle – just wait and see where the chips fall when Canadians really focus on mr poison. Will they be battling Trudeau – maybe, but I doubt it. They’re like the lippy guys I used to wipe the floor with when I played sports – all noise until the games on, and they lose in the end.
Curious,
While the rest of us yawn, indifferent to your diatribe, at least you’re doing a great job of convincing yourself. Next.
Mackay and Harper put an end to the Tory party, taken over by a wing-nut fringe. The Proud Tories of Mulroney and Diefenbaker are long gone, replaced by a populist fringe party that entertains and promotes conspiracy theory – this isn’t the Tory Party, they’re long gone.
Curious,
Well, whatever it is, it sure isn’t having too difficult of a time cleaning your clock.
Re the public inquiry. Justin invokes the Sgt Schultz defence, “I know nothing”.
Incompetent, ignorant and apathetic.
Poilievre will be up against Frankie Bubbles or Sean Fraser, not Trudeau – it’s gonna be a close election.
Justin’s hubris does not enable him to believe he could actually lose to Poilievre. As well, his opinion, well earned perhaps, is that Canadians will believe his message yet again. He has defeated the past three Conservative leaders. So, why not go again?
As well, I agree with the comments above that his job carries too many perks and lifestyle advantages. Sadly, he may even try pushing the election into 2026. I believe a full 5 years is possible with a legislation change, which his NDP party would likely support.
RKJ,
Even with a fixed election date, the law allows for a government to go a full five years before dropping the writ.
Agree with nearly everything yoou said, WK, except the sentence which equates “low information voters” with not having enough time.
That’s not why most people are low-information voters. They are that way because they are lazy. It really isn’t any more complicated than that.
People have plenty of time to browse social media for hours. They have plenty of time to watch inane TV shows. They have plenty of time to play video games. Therefore, they certainly have plenty of time to inform themselves about political stuff, if they so chose.
Perhaps, instead of spending so much time on gender theory and other similar nonsense in schools, they should re-introduce what we called “civics” class. In other words, teach kids how our political system operates, and how to keep abreast of actual news.
Steve,
At least a plurality of people are relatively stupid. They prove it every day on our roads: serially going through red lights, quite deliberately pretending that a flicker was never invented, turning street corners in my lane instead of their own and driving like maniacs way above the posted speed limit on our streets.
No wonder so many are “low information” everything…
The single biggest argument against democracy: everyone else’s vote counts the same as mine.
Makes it exhausting knowing I’ve consumed countless hours of information and reviewed a great deal of policy to make an informed decision when millions of Canadians are simply going to base their decision on who best parrots their favourite slogans and hashtags, or worse, which one is prettier.