— Musings —10.14.2024 08:28 AM
My political gut
Always trust my gut over polls. My gut is telling me Harris is slowly losing the election.
I’m a war room guy, so I always favor bringing the heat. Harris hasn’t.
Maybe the Dems figure the polls will panic their vote. All I know is: whatever they’re doing? It hasn’t worked.
I definitely thought she’d be pulling consistently ahead in the polls by now. But she just isn’t.
One theory that will give comfort to Democrats is that pollsters, having been burned twice by Trump election over-performance (vs prior polls), are overcompensating this time by overweighting pro-Trump demos in their samples. I’m sure there’s at least some of that occurring.
The Republicans released a pretty good ad over the weekend. It’s simply 4 minutes of Kamala using the exact same meaningless gobbledygook word salad phrase dozens of times. Really encapsulates why many just aren’t interested in what she has to say, since she says little if anything that is substantive or direct. This isn’t analogous to, for example, Poilievre’s incessant “Axe the tax” (it’s even starting to annoy *me*, and I’m a supporter) which is simply a repetition of a clear and specific policy goal. Add to that the fact she clearly hasn’t prepared answers to what should be obvious questions – what is your first 100-day plan, etc.
Does ANYONE really know what her priorities are, policy-wise?
The only questions she is comfortable answering involve abortion. She shines on that issue, whether you agree with her or not. But that may not cut it.
Harris, slowly losing: yes.
Trump, controlling the narrative.
Speaking the language of voter concerns: affordability + immigration.
Harris must counter, and say: here’s how I’ll be different from my boss.
But she seems reluctant. Hence the slide.