— Feature, Musings —12.31.2025 11:38 AM
It’s finally here! My predictions for 2026!
For 2025, I got some things right: Justin Trudeau would leave (Adrienne Batra and Brian Lilley still owe me lunch for that bet). The Liberals would have a leadership race and their numbers would improve (dramatically, as it turned out). The new Liberal leader would be an outsider (Mark Carney, take a bow). Doug Ford would win, big (and he remains a formidable political force).
But I got one thing very wrong: notwithstanding all the above, I thought Pierre Poilievre could still win. His polling lead was too big, I said.
Well, so much for that prediction.
My fallibility thus established, I herewith offer my predictions for 2026. I’ll try to do better this time.
1. Donald Trump will have a major health crisis. This one isn’t hard: the U.S. president is already clearly unwell. He can’t stand for extended periods, he has mysterious bruising and swelling in his extremities, he’s getting more MRIs than you get hot meals, and – whenever he opens his mouth – Trump genuinely sounds like he is experiencing actual dementia. There’s lots of Kremlinology going on, so no one knows for sure. But something’s up.
The consequence of it could be a silent palace coup, and there already signs that is happening. Or, there could be serious moves made on the 25th Amendment, to formally remove him. Either way, it isn’t just MAGA that is looking sickly. Trump is, too.
2. The Democrats will win. Full disclosure: I’ve actively campaigned for Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. So, you know I’m being truthful when I say I’ve been completely disgusted by how cowardly the Democrats have been since Trump’s return. With the exception of my preferred presidential contender Gavin Newsom, the Dems have been directionless, clueless and gutless.
Despite all that, and despite themselves, the Dems have been winning. In November’s races and in special elections, the Democrats have been crushing their Republican MAGA opponents in places where they haven’t been competitive in decades. Trump has become a major liability to his party, and he is going to get beaten like a human piñata in November’s midterms.
3. Carney isn’t going to get a trade deal. Not one worthy of the name, that is.
The issue isn’t the Prime Minister or any of the rotating cast of characters he picks to lead talks in Washington. The issue is Trump himself, for the reasons outlined above: the president seems to be losing his marbles. He’s not compos mentos, as lawyers like to say.
Carney and Trump could sign a deal on a Tuesday and – after, say, Trump sees a completely-factual commercial about tariffs on Wednesday – lose his mind and tear up the deal. He’s invoked bogus “national emergencies” against us before, and he will do so again.
My advice to Carney: keep doing trade deals with the rest of the world. Stay calm. And wait until Trump loses power, or is a resident of the funny farm, whichever comes first.
4. The AI bubble will burst. And, possibly, take us with it.
Ominously, artificial intelligence is already showing signs of self-preservation. As Canadian tech genius Yoshua Bengio has noted, chatbots are becoming independent and starting to “drive bad decisions.” Stories litter the Internet (for now!) of people being nudged toward violence by AI-generated “companions.”
But for most of us – writers, musicians and artists in particular – AI remains an elaborate plagiarism platform, one that doesn’t generate intelligence so much as steal intelligence and offer it up as its own. And, with so much capital invested in a concept that has so far been all lunchbag-letdown, a burst bubble seems highly likely. It’s happened before.
5. Things will get worse. Sorry, but they will.
And not just the weather or the cost of beef, either. Us. The enemy is us, as comic strip Pogo once memorably said. We are becoming less intelligent. We are becoming more violent. We are becoming less and less preoccupied with the common good.
The cause is what you almost certainly are using to read my prognostications: the Internet. The device you hold in your hands has been the biggest political, cultural, personal and economic revolution in our lifetimes. Since it became ubiquitous in the Nineties, the Internet has made all of human knowledge available to us, for free.
Instead of embracing that, humans have moved in the opposite direction, and become suckers for misinformation, disinformation, hate and conspiracy theories. We read less, and we yell more. It’s not good. Way to go, Al Gore.
Final prediction, then, gratis: I’ve now depressed you enough to drive you to an early drink.
Save one for me. I’m depressed, too, and I’m coming over.
Happy New Year everybody!!!!!
2026 Random thoughts:
1. Poilièvre easily wins leadership review; days later, a couple of Conservative MPs cross over to the Carney Liberals
2. America First movement undermines Republicans; party splinters; Dems run the mid-term table in November
3. Governors Newsom + Shapiro launch massive fundraising initiatives as they eye the Dems presidential ticket
4. Avi Lewis wins NDP leadership on the first ballot
5. Nathaniel Erskine-Smith wins Ontario Liberal leadership race
6. Premier Ford stumbles; whispers of regime change emerge in PC caucus
7. PQ romps to victory in Quebec provincial election; rest of the country shrugs
Douglas,
1. Absolutely agree. Pierre is being set up for a fall.
2. I think Epstein is undermining Trump but that won’t go anywhere until Trump is impeached by the House and convicted in the Senate. I think the Senate will make history and convict. Then will come his removal from office. After that it’s bye, bye, presidential immunity and off he goes to trial. That will be fun and will feel so good but not for Trump.
3. To win at the presidential level, they need another candidate that’s centrist and moderate in the mould of Bill Clinton.
4. If I was the NDP, I would want a second ballot win. At least go through the motions and avoid a coronation.
5. Not competent to comment.
6. Again, I’m not com petent to comment but if I was Kory I would already been working on new and innovative out-of-the-box campaign themes to win again. In short, Ford sheds his skin and is reborn again politically. Mind you, if Pierre implodes then Ford may have other more pressing priorities.
7. The PLQ needs to find the right leader. I’m already working on that. Then we need to use a modified Daisy Ad to fatally wound politically the PQ leader. Fortunately for us, PSPP is helping us with that. LOL. (I’m already sketching in my mind the Capitaine Paul ads.)
Ronald,
Shrewd observation, Epstein matter.
Trump is consumed by all things related to the sex trafficker/blackmailer.
It’s the file that refuses to go away and yes, it’ll ultimately lead to his removal from Office.
Unclear who will replace the Donald, but I doubt it’ll be JD (Just a hunch)
Douglas,
When Nixon resigned, it was constitutionally mandated that it was Ford. But Trump, if he feels like he’s going down (I know, a bad choice of words. LOL.) could pull an Agnew before he resigns. That’s the only way how Vance can be screwed.
1. Agree. I think we’re already there. If that happens, the most interesting thing will be how MAGA reacts. I’m convinced they will believe it is a set up… If Vance takes over, anyone who doesn’t like Vance will tap into that immediately. It will be an epic shit show.
2. Agree.
3. Agree with every word in that paragraph.
4. Agree. I am also getting skeptical about the legal side of AI. A few weeks ago I asked it a fairly simple question about a legal situation in my workplace and it responded immediately. However, I couldn’t help but notice that a group of humans – in this case, my co-workers – had a far better answer which required intuitive sense, imagination and informed skepticism about the applicable law itself…. all of which I didn’t get from AI. What stood out for me in particular was AI’s naivety about the legal system being perfectly functional. What I got from AI sounded like a grad school student who never spent a day in the real world.
5. This one I’m not so sure about. I’m sensing a backlash is coming to get internet foolishness under control. The reaction to all the fake twitter accounts was positive. That pendulum is slowly moving back I think.
6. I will add my own prediction. Trump and Putin either gone or on the edge of being forced out. Two parts to this: a) and b)
a) After the mid terms the table will obviously be set for impeachment. Do not assume Republicans won’t convict this time around. It is a completely different power dynamic with a lame duck president. That’s why it happened to Nixon. They will also be looking to exonerate themselves in the eyes of the public and history by pretending they eventually came to do the right thing.
b) In Russia there are too many families missing their young men at Christmas time. The losses are staggering. The economy is falling apart. Drones are falling on Moscow. This can only go on for so long…. A gangster leadership ought to receive a gangster end and eventually it will. Fast, brutal and extremely dangerous for the rest of the world. It will be much less dainty than impeachment proceedings in the well of the Senate.
….which brings me to one of my own political maxims which fits Trump and Putin perfectly in 2026….
**Everyone thinks a forced change in leadership is impossible… until the moment it happens… and then everyone says “that was inevitable”.**
I think Ukraine may be the most difficult one to predict. It depends so much on so many variables. To take just one, Trump and the MAGA Idiots vs. The Adults In The Room.
It could go anywhere from relatively ok for Ukraine (in the shitty circumstances) to almost total disaster, eg something like Kissinger and Nixon’s craven sellout of South Vietnam.
I think few predicted Pierre Poilievre would lose. The resignation of Justin Trudeau, the comments by Donald Trump, and the loss of support for the NDP and the Green Party were also big factors.,
For items 1 and 2, your predictions sound good – but I’m a bit fearful of the backlash within the MAGA inner circle.
The U.S. has already shown an incredible tolerance (and/or indifference) for actions which not that long ago would have been unthinkable. It has shown that many Americans (or perhaps many people overall) have turned inward and only care about things which directly affect them. Many people also have stopped keeping themselves aware of the news (either because they believe it is “fake”, or they are just too lazy).
All of that has provided a lesson to those who wish to stay in power. Therefore, my corollary prediction to your #1 and #2 is that, if those things happen, even more authoritarian and autocratic measures will be taken by the MAGA Republicans before they actually depart office. They know much of the country will swallow it.
My prediction-FWIW-Brookfield will continue to be a great investment unless folks wake up. Might as well hedge your bets if the country is going for a shit. If you believe Carney and Ford, there are lots of ways to play the Ring Of Fire too if you have the risk tolerance to buy penny stocks that could go to zero. The serious money is not buying it, yet.
Warren,
1. I hope and pray every day that POS drops dead. That said, they will do what they did at Walter Reed when he had COVID after screwing with well, H., who was COVID-positive without knowing it. Pump him up full of experimental drugs and risky treatments. In short, he probably has to go there every weekend but they will do their damndest (why?) to keep that asshole alive. But agreed that cognitively-speaking, there is probably much less that they can do.
2. Showboater doesn’t impress me at all. Shitting on Trump didn’t work at all for Biden, Harris, Pelosi, Schumer, et al. People become disgusted after losing their health insurance and food stamps. Only then do they move as they just did in Iowa.
3. Agreed. We could get a deal tomorrow but we would have to give away our sovereignty, not to mention the farm.
4. I don’t know. If it’s independent and adaptive, at some point it should be capable to learn from its mistakes and course correct. But obviously, that day is not now.
5. If we have a major economic or military event, then we reflexively will rally around each other: recession, depression or war. Otherwise, I agree with you.
I predict it won’t end well for NYC:
https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-city-mayor-zohran-mamdani-key-quotes-speech-2026-1
He plans to replace “the frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism.”
He sounds like he is the Borg Queen.
The enemy is us, as comic strip Pogo once memorably said. We are becoming less intelligent. We are becoming more violent. We are becoming less and less preoccupied with the common good.
And we willing and stupidly imported that didn’t we. Strength through diversity right?
I predict the usual suspects will dismiss Mamdani’s Nazi salute as an innocent wave.
Martin,
I was giving him the benefit of the doubt for now but if this is true, then forget it. However, I would like context and perspective as it relates to that salute. Hopefully, the press will give me that.
We’re lucky Carney is there to save us from a bad deal signed hastily, which is exactly what dipshit PP would do. But I agree there probably won’t be a deal anytime soon, and that to normalize trade we have to wait for the moron in the states to leave the room.
So you agree he was a fool, a liar or a propagandist. And yet you cling to your PDS as a rationalization. That’s funny. Noted. Be Curious to know which one you think he is because he has to be one:
“Except for the fact that he is “the smartest guy in the world” and he literally said he could do it by the end of July so to rephrase a quote from our host, there are three possibilities.
1. He actually believed he could sort out T. That would make him a fool.
2. He wanted us to believe he could sort out T. That would make him a propagandist.
3. He knew the fact that he could sort out T was false. That would make him a liar.
Take your pick. Those are the only three choices.
In the meantime, my best advice is to buy Brookfield. You’re welcome.”
Martin,
The moment he started to unofficially advise Trudeau on economic matters, that proved he was all three. He deliberately pretended to be a Trudeau Liberal with their leftist slant just to get his foot in the door and then he waited for the coup so he could swoop right in. I wonder how many degrees of light were between him and the 25 dissident MPs. My guess is not many. This guy loves playing us all for fools. It already worked once. He will see to it that it works again at a time of his own choosing. I imagine that Wayne’s memories will be highly instructive in that regard…
Damn it. Memoirs.
Warren,
Welcome to “Marco’s” War ! They, as usual, haven’t a clue what will come next. They easily extracted Maduro but there is no Plan B, not to mention more ominously, a Plan A. Typical Trump. So, if Maduro’s supporters fold, that will be great for Rubio in 2028 while giving Vance a fit. Notice how he seemingly was nowhere to be found at the press conference. But if it goes the way of troop occupation and an ongoing guerilla war by Maduro’s supporters, then it will make the chaos in Afghanistan during the withdrawal look like an afternoon tea party. Lots of American blood will be spilled in Venezuela. Definitely not good for Republicans and MAGA , if it happens.
At least Chevron is smiling. Poor Danielle. Oh, well.
Anyone that is surprised at this clearly did not watch Mission Impossible in the 60s. The US government has been in the business of regime change throughout its entire history. Indeed, this plan was basically sanctioned by Biden when he upped the reward and I am convinced the planning started under him. When it comes to foreign policy, IMO, the president is merely a figurehead. Gore would have gone to Iraq. No question.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change
MP Steven Bonk recently reported that Brookfield is responsible for a lot of deforestation in the Amazon rainforest. He also mentioned Brookfield was fined a lot of money by the Brazilian government for having employees in conditions similar those of slavery. My prediction is CBC won’t mention it.
The story has been around for a while and they have yet to mention it.
https://x.com/StevenBonkMP/status/2006788390025572799?s=20
Do you think for one second that a GS banker actually gives a shit about stuff like that?
Gilbert,
Yeah. Still waiting for them and their ilk to cover Democracy Watch’s private prosecution attempt in court against Trudeau that the Ford government allegedly killed. Tick tock, tick tock, tick tock.
Here’s a different prediction
CUSMA will be ended in favour of a bilateral trade agreement
The hill that Trump knows Carney (or any Canadian politician) will die on is supply management.
That’s all he needs to kill CUSMA is the Canadian side to refuse to compromise on that one issue.
Another prediction
Western alienation will increase after Carney pulling out all stops and offering everything to Quebec to keep the PQ from winning the provincial election.
I also have to wonder if anyone had Trump successfully extraditing Maduro on their bingo card?
Must protect those mutli millionaire quota owners. It is hilarious folks haven’t figured out whose side these former GS bankers are on. And if they are over 65, they likely have sharp accountants that make sure they get to keep their OAS but I digress.
What’s wrong with being a rich farmer – we have plenty of rich lawyers and bankers, so why the fuck wouldn’t a farmer be rich too – what’s the problem with rural Canada having a sustainable system for milk that pays its farmers and provides a consistent and safe supply of milk – in my family we were all Dutch farmers and yeah dairy is what most Dutch do – and it’s good for the economy in rural Canada so what’s the problem with that.
Joseph,
As you know, Trump has spoken publicly about his preference for a bilateral so they will be going through the motions on USMCA and then find an excuse, any excuse, that they can use as a pretext to kill it. A bilateral is a no-go as Trump’s eventual conditions would undermine our sovereignty so no new agreement is in the cards.
Carney can do nothing to stop Quebec from becoming sovereign if we so choose. The 1995 federalist model can’t and won’t work. That’s why it all rides on who the PLQ chooses as their next leader. Party members need to make the right choice and that person’s mandate has to be unequivocal to unite the party and hope to forestall the PQ’s election. People think PSPP’s election is a given. It’s not, if we have the best leader and play our cards right in Quebec City.
I was expecting a Venezulean invasion but not so quickly. Trump did it the stupid way. So, guerilla warfare against an American administration, or its local surrogates, is a virtual mathematical certainty. That last line is for Martin!
It really gets under my skin when people have the nerve to complain about farmers making too much. At least they earn it. In a world of overpaid accountants and lawyers and doctors what the fuck is the problem with real people making a living instead of a useless stuffed shirt. Fuck this bothers me when there are so many people making way more than the rt are worth – what’s the fucking problem with farmers making a living instead of a dink with a degree.
Curious,
I can’t speak for accountants but I will add the following regarding lawyers: first off, the hourly rate charged at major law firms across the country by the most senior professionals cannot reasonably be justified. There needs to be far more competition but the law societies don’t want that. They want a restricted monopoly that can pig out. In addition, not enough lawyers are confident enough in their abilities to say fuck you to their firms and go out in the deep end by founding their own firms. If they do, they can lower the hourly rate and yet make more money than when they were at a big firm. Most of the profession exists to serve commercial and corporate clients. That will never change.
Finally, the system is designed to be a two-tier justice system: top talent for corporations and other legal entities, not to mention the rich, while the little guy has to go to small claims or lose his or her rights when they can’t afford going before a superior or provincial court because of the way the billing system is designed. Fortunately, there is so pro bono out there while other lawyers work on contingency but neither of those options are widespread enough to insure adequate legal representation before the courts. The system has priced out most people: the little guy and the middle class and that isn’t about to change ever. So…vote out your provincial government if they don’t take legal reform seriously. After all, we have the power of the ballot. Compent legal representation inaccessibility is a crime and a human rights violation.
Generally speaking, a large number of politicians have been lawyers and they write the legislation. No such protection for accountants. The fact that Arthur Anderson was put out of business after Enron and folks at places like GS(where people like Hodgson and Carney cut their teeth) didn’t go to jail after 08/09 instead of landing on their feet as politicians is nuts. Tax legislation is getting so complicated, the big problem for accounting firms is getting sufficient insurance coverage for erros. The industry will eventually be only 5-6 big firms who will self insure. Rates sure won’t come down at that point.
Ronald I know it’s a lot of hard work and I respect it, it’s just that so many people work
Really hard and they are underpaid – farmers actually earn it
You know I could have gone to law
School – I could have been an
Accountant I’m good with numbers but very few could handle a days work with my family – you’d go home
Crying to your mommy.
Good lord. I don’t even know where to start with any of this. But at least I seem to have got your attention. First of all, my “mommy” would have been 95 Friday and has been gone for 33 years on Jan 1 and I still miss her. I wish I could go running to her but that’s not going to happen and I digress. And you sure are making a lot of assumptions about my background nameless faceless, person.
Secondly, I would generally agree with you about a lot of the professions but certainly not doctors. If anything, they are underpaid. Haven’t you been reading my posts about bankers? It is beyond hilarious that you have given them a pass on account of the fact that your boy is one.
Thirdly, there is no artificial government barrier to entry in any of those professions. Of course there is nothing wrong with being a rich farmer. I am talking about one particular subset of them that is subsidized by the government and said subsidy keeps prices high. I am well aware how hard non quota owning farmers work and what they earn. Very few of the quota owners I know and have dealt with get their hands dirty. They have people for that.
The typical dairy quota owning farmer is worth close to 5 million dollars and makes about 250,000 a year, The business model also relies on the greater fool theory(kind of like sports franchises). Paying for the quota at the prices the government is propping them up at does not make any sense as an investment and folks only pay for it at those prices because they know the government will keep them propped up.
This is shades of the Rosedale couple keeping some of their OAS to pay their landscapers despite making 350000 a year. Who is going to speak for them if not Curious!