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What I write sometimes makes people angry. Right and Left.

Here’s what I’ve noticed. It’s interesting.

I write about different stuff. Politics, music, culture, whatever. People react.

Sometimes I take a position that is notionally “progressive.” I’ll indicate support for trans kids, or taxing polluters, or vaccines.

Self-described “progressives” will react by saying nothing. “Conservatives,” meanwhile, will go apeshit and say I’m a communist, a pedophile, whatever.

But they will say those things to me directly. Right to me.

And sometimes I take a position that is notionally “conservative.” I’ll say I support capital punishment, or less taxation, or (these days) Israel.

Self-described conservatives will react by sending me messages about how delighted they are that I have joined their side, even though I haven’t joined any side. They always want to increase the size of their team. I think they always want validation.

The progressives are a different matter. When they read that “conservative” stuff, they again don’t contact me directly, almost ever.

Instead, they complain to my editors. They complain to my publishers. They complain to my clients.

They complain to whoever they think is my boss.

They do that to get me fired or disciplined or whatever. Mainly, they do it to get me canceled.

That’s the difference between conservatives and progressives, in my experience. The conservatives will get angry and abusive, but at least they do it to your face. The progressives get pious and indignant and vengeful, and they will try to get you shut down.

Both sides have assholes, in their own way. The critical difference is that, however: one side gets mad at you directly, and then forgets about it. The other side wants to end you, forever.

That’s how I look at the “woke” stuff. In definitional terms, being woke means opposing bigotry and injustice. I agree with opposing bigotry and injustice.

In practical terms, however, woke has come to mean: punish those who disagree with you. Make them bleed.

That’s what the Right and the Left have come to mean to me, at least insofar as my writing goes.

I don’t really give a shit about either extreme, but it’s certainly been interesting.

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Observing the braying, spit-flecked mob outside the doors to Toronto’s Park Hyatt Hotel on Monday night – replete with signs (falsely) accusing Israel of genocide, and hinting (clearly) at a desired genocide of their own – it almost seemed redundant to ask: what did the anti-Israel, pro-Hamas swarm hope to accomplish?

It’s a relevant question, too: like, what the Hell? Are you actually against books, pro-Hamas cabal? Have you, at long last, reached that low, that nadir?

Because that’s all that the tony affair at the Park Hyatt was about, folks: books. Canadian books, in particular.

The occasion was the awarding of the Giller, which is one of the biggest such prizes for writing in the world, with $100,000 going to the winner. It’s been going for years, now, and was started by the much-admired Jack Rabinovitch, a business guy who loved books. He named the prize after his wife and true love, Doris Giller, who had been editor at the books section of the Toronto Star. After Jack passed away in 2017, his daughter Elana Rabinovitch took up the mantle.

The finalists this year were from across Canada. There was Eric Chacour from Quebec, who wrote ‘I Know About You.’ There was Anne Fleming from Victoria, with ‘Curiosities.’ There was Guelph’s Deepa Rajagopalan, who was there for ‘Peacocks of Instagram.’ There was Conor Kerr, who is an Alberta guy and even wore his cowboy hat all night, picked for his book ‘Prairie Edge.’ And there was the winner, the soft-spoken and thoughtful Anne Michaels from Toronto, who wrote ‘Held.’

It was a nice event. Everyone there – former Toronto mayor John Tory, Canadian U.N. Ambassador Bob Rae, and a metric ton of folks sporting Order of Canada pins on their lapels – wanted to celebrate books generally, and Canadian books in particular. Who could be against that?

Well, the Hamas fetishists could be, and are. Last year, just a few days after Israel commenced its just and rational war against Hamas for slaughtering 1,200 Jews and non-Jews, some creeps disrupted the Giller ceremony. They jumped up on stage with signs that falsely accused the main sponsor, Scotiabank, of “funding genocide.” Screamed one: “We will not be silent anymore.”

Well, at this year’s gala, they were. There was more security present than at a typical Prime Ministerial speech, and everything went off without a hitch. No Hamasniks made it inside to cause trouble. Credit Elana Rabinovitch for that.

People at this year’s event – where Scotiabank’s name was absent – were clearly relieved. Some great books got promoted, and Canadian writing got celebrated. It was, as noted, nice.

But the question still nags: How can the ones who profess to be for Palestine be against books?

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The people are always right, John Turner said.

It was the evening of September 4, 1984 when he said that. Turner’s Liberal Party had just been crushed by Brian Mulroney’s Conservatives. On that occasion, so long ago, it felt like Turner was right. The people had spoken.

These days, we’re not so sure. These days, it’s pretty hard to believe that “the people are always right.”

In the United States, for instance, the people chose Donald Trump. It was a free and fair election, and Democrats have respected the outcome. The didn’t convene secret meetings of fake electors, they didn’t allege the election had been stolen, they didn’t instigate a riot at the Capitol.

But, in the days since the election, America and the world – and many within Trump’s own Republican Party – have been shocked by Trump’s selections for his cabinet.

There is Robert Kennedy, Jr., who famously opposes vaccines and says he has a worm in his brain (those two things may be related). Trump wants to put Kennedy in charge of healthcare for millions of Americans – which has many experts predicting a return of measles, polio and other preventable disease diseases.

There is Tulsi Gabbard, who has been an enthusiastic supporter of Syria’s genocidal regime, and has been credibly accused of being a Russian asset. Trump wants her to be America’s top intelligence official.

There is Matt Gaetz, who has been investigated for sex with a minor, illegal drug use and accepting improper gifts. Trump wants him to be America’s Attorney General.

There is Pete Hegseth, who has never had a military command role, and who has said he hasn’t washed his hands in a decade, because germs aren’t real. Trump wants him to run America’s military.

There is Elon Musk, the billionaire who has been secretly meeting with Iranian officials – which, as the New York Times has reported, has delighted the ayatollahs in Iran, who have called it “positive” and “good news.” Trump has brought Musk in for all kinds of meetings, without ensuring first that the X elf lord has a security clearance.

Up here, of course, we have a Prime Minister who has worn racist black face many times, who has never been cleared of groping a female reporter, and who has been found culpable in multiple corruption scandals. And who claims to be (a) anti-racist, (b) feminist, and (c) leading a responsible and ethical government.

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It’s the economy, stupid.

Democratic strategist James Carville famously uttered those words first, during the 1992 US presidential campaign. They’ve become the accepted political wisdom ever since.

What’s fascinating is that, in that election year, the economy should have worked against Carville and his candidate, Bill Clinton. In that election cycle, you see, Vice President George H.W. Bush’s verbal gaffes – “read my lips,” etcetera – seriously damaged the Republican’s public image, yes. But what is surprising, still, is that the GOP lost the White House despite significant GDP growth plus approval ratings as high as 89 per cent following victory in the Persian Gulf War in 1991.

Decades of data show that the state of the economy determines election outcomes, in the United States, Canada and across Western democracy. It’s the economy, stupid, as Carville said.

Incumbents – which Kamala Harris effectively was – almost always have an electoral advantage. But that isn’t true when there’s been a recession or some economic calamity. Like, say, a pandemic which retailers used as an excuse to gouge consumers.

As financial analysts Goldman Sachs observed a year ago, in what should have been a warning to the Biden-Harris administration: “Since 1951, when the constitutional amendment was ratified to limit presidents to two terms, the incumbent has lost when the election took place soon after a recession (in 1976, 1980, 1992, and 2020). The party in the White House also lost after a recession in two instances when the incumbent candidate was not on the ballot (1960 and 2008).”

Except, except, Democrats will protest: there wasn’t a recession in 2023-2024! There actually has been lots of growth!

So why did the economy kill the Harris campaign, then? (And, make no mistake, it did: “inflation is too high under the Biden-Harris administration” was the number one cited reason why Americans voted for Trump, exit polls reported this week. People crossing the border illegally was the second-ranked reason.)

Sorry, Democrats: what voters think is the reality is the reality. Whether, um, it’s the reality or not.

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It was planned.

The attacks on Jews in Amsterdam on Thursday — the beatings, the stabbings, the shooting of fireworks, the running them down with cars — didn’t just happen at the last moment, as Israeli soccer fans were leaving the Ajax-Maccabi Tel Aviv Europa FC match. It was planned, effectively and methodically. Just like the atrocities of Oct. 7, 2023 were, in Israel.

Half a dozen Jews were hospitalized. Many now are safely back in Israel, having been airlifted there by their government. In the Netherlands, meanwhile, the thugs — more than five dozen of them — have been arrested. It was a pogrom, just as Israel said: a violent riot, aimed at killing or expelling an ethnic or religious group.

In this case, Israeli soccer fans.

That no one was killed was a miracle. The footage online — and there is a lot of it, if you have the stomach for it — is graphic and real. Unlike Kristallnacht, the Nazi pogrom against Jews that started to unfold 86 years ago this week in Europe, the events in Amsterdam were in colour, and in real time. But the effect was the same.

The evidence of the planning is impossible to ignore. Four days before the attacks, on Monday, Spain’s AS newspaper revealed that a pro-Hamas group was planning a protest outside the soccer stadium, one that would target the Israeli team and its fans. Israeli intelligence warned the Dutch, but little or nothing was done.

Some of the online exchanges before the attacks:

• “Hang Palestinian flag in the city. They will come like rats …”
• “Tomorrow after the match at night … Jewish Hunt”
• “Who can arrange fireworks? Lots of fireworks needed.”
• “The hunt (has) started.”

Meanwhile, Yeshiva World News reported that “a significant number of the attackers were (ride-share) drivers who used their positions to locate and target Jews.” Attacks were then coordinated over WhatsApp, another favoured platform of Islamic extremists. SJP Amsterdam — a global pro-Hamas organization with branches on almost every university campus in Canada — was seen planning the attacks in advance, coordinating with their more then 4,000 followers.

CyberWell, an Internet watchdog that tracks antisemitism on social media platforms, had warned the platforms — X, Telegram, Instagram and the like — that gaps in their moderation efforts “contributed to the horrific coordinated attack against Israeli tourists in Amsterdam” on Thursday.

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The happiest Canadian, this morning, is Justin Trudeau.

Some conservatives will be happy, of course. There’s always been some Trump fans on Canada’s Right.

But the happiest guy of all? It is the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada.  Here’s why.

For months, now, Trudeau has been very, very unpopular. The gap has been as much as 20 points, for more than a year.

As such, he has thrown everything at the wall to see what would stick. Abortion, hidden agenda, foreign interference, you name it. But none of it has worked.

Until now. Until this morning. Until Donald Trump came “roaring back,” as the New York Times put it, with a big, big win in the electoral college. The Republican presidential candidate becomes the first to win the popular vote in 20 years.

But that’s American politics, which the commentariat will be endlessly debating for the next two years, until the 2026 midterms. Or, at least until JD Vance figures out a way to drive an aging Trump out using the 25th amendment.

This writer helped win a few major majority governments up here in Canada. Along the way, I learned that Canadian voters have a very different set of priorities. And, this morning, I guarantee you – absolutely guarantee you – that many, many of them are full-on freaking out.

Not Justin Trudeau.

Trudeau has been thrown a lifeline by millions of American voters who grabbed the steering wheel and yanked it to the right. At some point this morning, the Prime Minister will come out looking somber and serious. He will stand before a gaggle of microphones.

He will say three things. One, he will say that he has reached out to Donald Trump to offer his congratulations (I doubt he got through). Two, he will say that his government will continue to put the priorities of Canadians first, and continue to work closely with our most important ally and trading partner.

And then, third – in response to a question from somebody at CBC or The Toronto Star – he will say that it is now more important than ever before the Canada has a progressive team to protect Canada’s interests. He will say that part with the appropriate level of drama and passion. He will say “progressive” one hundred times, if he can.

And you know what? Many Canadians – who to this point have deeply disliked Trudeau – will agree with that. And, soon enough, the polls will reflect that.

Will it be enough to bridge a 20-point gap? Not right away.

But Trump’s MAGA Party now controls the Senate and soon will control the House of Representatives. He will have total dominance. In the coming months, Ukraine will slip under the waves, having been abandoned by the United States. Trump will look the other way as the Chinese Communist Party finally makes its move on Taiwan. In the coming months, Europe will turn inward and NATO will be on its way to becoming a Wikipedia entry, and not much else.

It’s at that point that Canadians will really and truly start to freak out. And they will start considering who they should be voting for.

I do not believe, not for a moment, that Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is indifferent to the fate of Ukraine, Taiwan, NATO or global stability. I think he has grown in his job. I think it would be unfair to call him a Trumper.

But politics isn’t fair. And Justin Trudeau is going to be working very hard to give Pierre Poilievre a shiny new MAGA tattoo. It may even work.

Sometime during the night, last night, everything changed. For the United States, for Europe, and even for little old Canada. It’s about to get really bouncy.

And, if you look closely enough, you will see Justin Trudeau suppressing a smile.

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Campaigns matter.

That’s the old political truism, anyway. For a long time, politicos have believed that. To them, it’s like hockey: the regular season doesn’t matter, only the playoffs matter. You can be a bum in the regular season, but if you can get your act together in the playoffs, you might end up hoisting the Stanley Cup over your shoulders.

That’s the old political chestnut, anyway.  But it sure hasn’t been true in the 2024 U.S. presidential race, has it?

The Democrats’ Kamala Harris has run an excellent campaign. She entered the race late, she hasn’t made any big mistakes (Joe Biden has, however), and she has raised more than $1 billion in a very short time – the biggest fundraising haul in the history of U.S. politics.

The Republicans, meanwhile, have made mistakes aplenty.  Childless cat ladies, “island of garbage,” people eating dogs and cats, and on and on.  Their candidate, Donald Trump, hasn’t had a great time of it, either: he’s a convicted felon, an adjudicated sexual offender, a twice-impeached President and a serial denier of election results that have been certified by the courts, Congress and his former Vice-President. Oh, and quite a few of the people who worked for him from 2016 to 2020 are voting for Harris.

But you know what? It hasn’t mattered. They’re tied.

Trump isn’t just competitive against Harris – he’s very competitive.  Even though the Vice-President has run a solid campaign (and, full disclosure, this writer worked for her on it), and even though Trump has had a less-than-stellar campaign, it hasn’t changed much.  The race has been tighter than a tick.

But this writer still thinks Harris will win.

Now, put down your pitchforks and torches, Canadian Trump fans.  Hear me out. There’s one reason why Harris is going to win.  Not by a landslide, mind you.  But by enough to eke out a win the electoral college – likely several days after E-day.

It’s GOTV: get out the vote.

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