The happiest Canadian, this morning, is Justin Trudeau.

Some conservatives will be happy, of course. There’s always been some Trump fans on Canada’s Right.

But the happiest guy of all? It is the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada.  Here’s why.

For months, now, Trudeau has been very, very unpopular. The gap has been as much as 20 points, for more than a year.

As such, he has thrown everything at the wall to see what would stick. Abortion, hidden agenda, foreign interference, you name it. But none of it has worked.

Until now. Until this morning. Until Donald Trump came “roaring back,” as the New York Times put it, with a big, big win in the electoral college. The Republican presidential candidate becomes the first to win the popular vote in 20 years.

But that’s American politics, which the commentariat will be endlessly debating for the next two years, until the 2026 midterms. Or, at least until JD Vance figures out a way to drive an aging Trump out using the 25th amendment.

This writer helped win a few major majority governments up here in Canada. Along the way, I learned that Canadian voters have a very different set of priorities. And, this morning, I guarantee you – absolutely guarantee you – that many, many of them are full-on freaking out.

Not Justin Trudeau.

Trudeau has been thrown a lifeline by millions of American voters who grabbed the steering wheel and yanked it to the right. At some point this morning, the Prime Minister will come out looking somber and serious. He will stand before a gaggle of microphones.

He will say three things. One, he will say that he has reached out to Donald Trump to offer his congratulations (I doubt he got through). Two, he will say that his government will continue to put the priorities of Canadians first, and continue to work closely with our most important ally and trading partner.

And then, third – in response to a question from somebody at CBC or The Toronto Star – he will say that it is now more important than ever before the Canada has a progressive team to protect Canada’s interests. He will say that part with the appropriate level of drama and passion. He will say “progressive” one hundred times, if he can.

And you know what? Many Canadians – who to this point have deeply disliked Trudeau – will agree with that. And, soon enough, the polls will reflect that.

Will it be enough to bridge a 20-point gap? Not right away.

But Trump’s MAGA Party now controls the Senate and soon will control the House of Representatives. He will have total dominance. In the coming months, Ukraine will slip under the waves, having been abandoned by the United States. Trump will look the other way as the Chinese Communist Party finally makes its move on Taiwan. In the coming months, Europe will turn inward and NATO will be on its way to becoming a Wikipedia entry, and not much else.

It’s at that point that Canadians will really and truly start to freak out. And they will start considering who they should be voting for.

I do not believe, not for a moment, that Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is indifferent to the fate of Ukraine, Taiwan, NATO or global stability. I think he has grown in his job. I think it would be unfair to call him a Trumper.

But politics isn’t fair. And Justin Trudeau is going to be working very hard to give Pierre Poilievre a shiny new MAGA tattoo. It may even work.

Sometime during the night, last night, everything changed. For the United States, for Europe, and even for little old Canada. It’s about to get really bouncy.

And, if you look closely enough, you will see Justin Trudeau suppressing a smile.

Comments (22)

Comments (2)

Campaigns matter.

That’s the old political truism, anyway. For a long time, politicos have believed that. To them, it’s like hockey: the regular season doesn’t matter, only the playoffs matter. You can be a bum in the regular season, but if you can get your act together in the playoffs, you might end up hoisting the Stanley Cup over your shoulders.

That’s the old political chestnut, anyway.  But it sure hasn’t been true in the 2024 U.S. presidential race, has it?

The Democrats’ Kamala Harris has run an excellent campaign. She entered the race late, she hasn’t made any big mistakes (Joe Biden has, however), and she has raised more than $1 billion in a very short time – the biggest fundraising haul in the history of U.S. politics.

The Republicans, meanwhile, have made mistakes aplenty.  Childless cat ladies, “island of garbage,” people eating dogs and cats, and on and on.  Their candidate, Donald Trump, hasn’t had a great time of it, either: he’s a convicted felon, an adjudicated sexual offender, a twice-impeached President and a serial denier of election results that have been certified by the courts, Congress and his former Vice-President. Oh, and quite a few of the people who worked for him from 2016 to 2020 are voting for Harris.

But you know what? It hasn’t mattered. They’re tied.

Trump isn’t just competitive against Harris – he’s very competitive.  Even though the Vice-President has run a solid campaign (and, full disclosure, this writer worked for her on it), and even though Trump has had a less-than-stellar campaign, it hasn’t changed much.  The race has been tighter than a tick.

But this writer still thinks Harris will win.

Now, put down your pitchforks and torches, Canadian Trump fans.  Hear me out. There’s one reason why Harris is going to win.  Not by a landslide, mind you.  But by enough to eke out a win the electoral college – likely several days after E-day.

It’s GOTV: get out the vote.

[To read more, subscribe here]

Comments (5)

Politics is show business for ugly people. It’s an old line, one for which many claim parentage.

But it’s true. And there’s been quite a bit of ugliness pinballing around in recent months. Because, too often, it works.

In 2016, Democrats didn’t believe ugliness could prevail. In that U.S. presidential election year – where, full disclosure, this writer worked for Hillary Clinton in three different states, including her Brooklyn headquarters – nobody believed that Donald Trump’s style of politicking could possibly succeed.

Trump called Clinton a criminal. He called for her to be locked up. He said Barack Obama founded ISIS. He said Mexicans were rapists, and attacked Jeb Bush for marrying one. He said John McCain wasn’t a war hero because he got caught. And so on.

Nobody believed that kind of ugliness could win an election, let alone a presidential election. But Trump did.

Eight years later, Democrats aren’t taking any chances. They’ve quoted Trump’s former chief of staff, who has called Trump a fascist. They’ve slammed Trump at every opportunity, sparing no adjective. Meanwhile, Trump’s Republican Party – because they are, indisputably, his party – held a big rally at Madison Square Gardens on the weekend and permitted all kinds of ugly things to be said.

Like that Puerto Rico is a “island of garbage” floating in the ocean. Like that Kamala Harris is “the antichrist” and “the devil.” And, as the Times of Israel noted, antisemitic jokes – most notably, the comedian who said that “Jews have a hard time” spending money. Because, presumably, Jews are cheap.

That kind of ugliness – the ugliness of antisemitism – has been everywhere, in the past year. CyberWell, an Israel-based watchdog that tracks antisemitism online, has issued a report that concludes antisemitism has surged by almost 40 per cent in the eleven months since the murderous attack of Hamas of October 7.

Says CyberWell’s brilliant founder and executive director, Tal-Or Cohen Montemayor: “It’s important, especially since there’s a lot of fanfare around the next administration in the United States and potentially in Canada – it’s very important if you care about what’s happening in your society – that the way to address [antisemitism] in a systematic way is to look at social media reform. We cannot shy away from it just because it’s the tech sector. In fact, the opposite. It’s the key to safer and and more stable societies at this point.”

[To read more, subscribe here]

Comments (3)