It’s the economy, stupid.

Democratic strategist James Carville famously uttered those words first, during the 1992 US presidential campaign. They’ve become the accepted political wisdom ever since.

What’s fascinating is that, in that election year, the economy should have worked against Carville and his candidate, Bill Clinton. In that election cycle, you see, Vice President George H.W. Bush’s verbal gaffes – “read my lips,” etcetera – seriously damaged the Republican’s public image, yes. But what is surprising, still, is that the GOP lost the White House despite significant GDP growth plus approval ratings as high as 89 per cent following victory in the Persian Gulf War in 1991.

Decades of data show that the state of the economy determines election outcomes, in the United States, Canada and across Western democracy. It’s the economy, stupid, as Carville said.

Incumbents – which Kamala Harris effectively was – almost always have an electoral advantage. But that isn’t true when there’s been a recession or some economic calamity. Like, say, a pandemic which retailers used as an excuse to gouge consumers.

As financial analysts Goldman Sachs observed a year ago, in what should have been a warning to the Biden-Harris administration: “Since 1951, when the constitutional amendment was ratified to limit presidents to two terms, the incumbent has lost when the election took place soon after a recession (in 1976, 1980, 1992, and 2020). The party in the White House also lost after a recession in two instances when the incumbent candidate was not on the ballot (1960 and 2008).”

Except, except, Democrats will protest: there wasn’t a recession in 2023-2024! There actually has been lots of growth!

So why did the economy kill the Harris campaign, then? (And, make no mistake, it did: “inflation is too high under the Biden-Harris administration” was the number one cited reason why Americans voted for Trump, exit polls reported this week. People crossing the border illegally was the second-ranked reason.)

Sorry, Democrats: what voters think is the reality is the reality. Whether, um, it’s the reality or not.

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It was planned.

The attacks on Jews in Amsterdam on Thursday — the beatings, the stabbings, the shooting of fireworks, the running them down with cars — didn’t just happen at the last moment, as Israeli soccer fans were leaving the Ajax-Maccabi Tel Aviv Europa FC match. It was planned, effectively and methodically. Just like the atrocities of Oct. 7, 2023 were, in Israel.

Half a dozen Jews were hospitalized. Many now are safely back in Israel, having been airlifted there by their government. In the Netherlands, meanwhile, the thugs — more than five dozen of them — have been arrested. It was a pogrom, just as Israel said: a violent riot, aimed at killing or expelling an ethnic or religious group.

In this case, Israeli soccer fans.

That no one was killed was a miracle. The footage online — and there is a lot of it, if you have the stomach for it — is graphic and real. Unlike Kristallnacht, the Nazi pogrom against Jews that started to unfold 86 years ago this week in Europe, the events in Amsterdam were in colour, and in real time. But the effect was the same.

The evidence of the planning is impossible to ignore. Four days before the attacks, on Monday, Spain’s AS newspaper revealed that a pro-Hamas group was planning a protest outside the soccer stadium, one that would target the Israeli team and its fans. Israeli intelligence warned the Dutch, but little or nothing was done.

Some of the online exchanges before the attacks:

• “Hang Palestinian flag in the city. They will come like rats …”
• “Tomorrow after the match at night … Jewish Hunt”
• “Who can arrange fireworks? Lots of fireworks needed.”
• “The hunt (has) started.”

Meanwhile, Yeshiva World News reported that “a significant number of the attackers were (ride-share) drivers who used their positions to locate and target Jews.” Attacks were then coordinated over WhatsApp, another favoured platform of Islamic extremists. SJP Amsterdam — a global pro-Hamas organization with branches on almost every university campus in Canada — was seen planning the attacks in advance, coordinating with their more then 4,000 followers.

CyberWell, an Internet watchdog that tracks antisemitism on social media platforms, had warned the platforms — X, Telegram, Instagram and the like — that gaps in their moderation efforts “contributed to the horrific coordinated attack against Israeli tourists in Amsterdam” on Thursday.

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The happiest Canadian, this morning, is Justin Trudeau.

Some conservatives will be happy, of course. There’s always been some Trump fans on Canada’s Right.

But the happiest guy of all? It is the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada.  Here’s why.

For months, now, Trudeau has been very, very unpopular. The gap has been as much as 20 points, for more than a year.

As such, he has thrown everything at the wall to see what would stick. Abortion, hidden agenda, foreign interference, you name it. But none of it has worked.

Until now. Until this morning. Until Donald Trump came “roaring back,” as the New York Times put it, with a big, big win in the electoral college. The Republican presidential candidate becomes the first to win the popular vote in 20 years.

But that’s American politics, which the commentariat will be endlessly debating for the next two years, until the 2026 midterms. Or, at least until JD Vance figures out a way to drive an aging Trump out using the 25th amendment.

This writer helped win a few major majority governments up here in Canada. Along the way, I learned that Canadian voters have a very different set of priorities. And, this morning, I guarantee you – absolutely guarantee you – that many, many of them are full-on freaking out.

Not Justin Trudeau.

Trudeau has been thrown a lifeline by millions of American voters who grabbed the steering wheel and yanked it to the right. At some point this morning, the Prime Minister will come out looking somber and serious. He will stand before a gaggle of microphones.

He will say three things. One, he will say that he has reached out to Donald Trump to offer his congratulations (I doubt he got through). Two, he will say that his government will continue to put the priorities of Canadians first, and continue to work closely with our most important ally and trading partner.

And then, third – in response to a question from somebody at CBC or The Toronto Star – he will say that it is now more important than ever before the Canada has a progressive team to protect Canada’s interests. He will say that part with the appropriate level of drama and passion. He will say “progressive” one hundred times, if he can.

And you know what? Many Canadians – who to this point have deeply disliked Trudeau – will agree with that. And, soon enough, the polls will reflect that.

Will it be enough to bridge a 20-point gap? Not right away.

But Trump’s MAGA Party now controls the Senate and soon will control the House of Representatives. He will have total dominance. In the coming months, Ukraine will slip under the waves, having been abandoned by the United States. Trump will look the other way as the Chinese Communist Party finally makes its move on Taiwan. In the coming months, Europe will turn inward and NATO will be on its way to becoming a Wikipedia entry, and not much else.

It’s at that point that Canadians will really and truly start to freak out. And they will start considering who they should be voting for.

I do not believe, not for a moment, that Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is indifferent to the fate of Ukraine, Taiwan, NATO or global stability. I think he has grown in his job. I think it would be unfair to call him a Trumper.

But politics isn’t fair. And Justin Trudeau is going to be working very hard to give Pierre Poilievre a shiny new MAGA tattoo. It may even work.

Sometime during the night, last night, everything changed. For the United States, for Europe, and even for little old Canada. It’s about to get really bouncy.

And, if you look closely enough, you will see Justin Trudeau suppressing a smile.

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