My latest: America at war – with itself
Okay, I’ll take the wheel, here. Just for a bit.
Why? Well, you guys don’t come here to get my analysis of how well the Secret Service do their job. Although, if you ask me, I think the Secret Service will be considered a full-fledged member of the Deep State before the sun goes down tonight. If they aren’t already.
I’m not an expert on the Secret Service or how to protect Presidents, Premiers and Prime Ministers. I’ve gotten lots of credible death threats over the years, too, so I’ve interacted with police and security experts. And I learned, long ago, to defer to their expertise and judgment. But man oh man, are the Secret Service in for a rough Summer.
And you don’t come here for my take on U.S. gun laws, either. I consciously stopped commenting on mass shootings in the United States years ago. I figured that, if the mass murder of twenty five-year-old kids at Sandy Hook didn’t change them, nothing would. Not the shooting of presidents or presidential candidates, either.
They’ll continue to kill each other, because they are a nation at war with itself. Where a twenty-year-old who hasn’t even voted yet can get his hands on an assault rifle.
So, you don’t come here for any of that. You come here to get my political take, because I’ve been involved with political stuff for a long time. So, here it is. Five things.
One, it’s 113 days until Americans line up to vote. Donald Trump was already ahead, and he’ll be even more ahead now. But – but, but – it’s 113 days, which is several lifetimes in politics. So he’ll say or do something outrageous, and it’ll tighten up again, a bit.
But, as Brian Lilley and Charles Adler and Tasha Kheririddin said this morning, it’ll make Trump’s base even more convinced that he is the literal messiah. It’ll firm up his vote, big time. And he’s going to enter the Republican convention this week even stronger than he was before. Which is to say, strong. The vote may be 113 days away, but he’s the one to beat, right now.
Two, Joe Biden – who I worked for last time – has pulled his ads, changed his schedule, and is laying low. He was already going to lay low during the GOP convention. Sure. But, now, Democrats are going to be agonizing over every damn thing they do. Their internal debates – which had already spilled out into the open, after Biden’s disastrous presidential debate – are going to get a lot more challenging.
Abortion and Trump will continue to work for them as a strategy. That hasn’t changed. But the other attack? The one about the importance of democracy? That one is now a lot harder. Republicans will say American democracy is ruined and, after an attempted assassination of their candidate last night, lots of people will agree with them.
Three, I think NATO, the EU, America’s allies and American governmental institutions will start treating Trump like he’s already president. You can see that in their post-shooting comments last night. They think he’s won, now. They’re going to start changing their approach to Trump. They didn’t want Trump, but they think Trump is what they’re going to get. So, light’s out, NATO, Ukraine, Taiwan and free trade. Those are gone when and if he wins, and they all know it.
Four, Justin Trudeau. Canada’s Prime Minister is running out of time, and he has run out of moves. All that he had left was a possible Trump win. Because – sorry, Team Tory – many Canadians won’t want Pierre Poilievre in the Prime Minister’s Office when Donald Trump is in the Oval Office. They’ll want an alternative to the craziness they believe, correctly, is coming our way.
Is it enough to narrow a twenty-point gap? No, not right now. But it’ll make a difference. Canadians are big believers in alternation – Team Red at one level, Team Blue at the other level. Hell, even Calgarians do that – they’ve been electing Tory Premiers and Liberal mayors for decades.
Trump coming back will spook Canadian voters. And Trudeau will make full and frequent use of a second Trump presidency. Believe it.
Five: we live in a dangerous world – a world more dangerous than I can ever remember. As someone said to me when we went out for dinner last night, we are seeing things in 2024 that we all thought we’d never see again.
And an assassin’s bullet made everything more dangerous.
We are heading into a dark, dark place, my friends, and no one has the wheel.