You may not know it yet, but what NDP leadership candidate Brian Topp thinks matters. It’s true.

A Leger poll released Monday explains why. Topp’s main rival, NDP MP Thomas Mulcair, is heartily disliked by pretty much everyone — including members of his own party. Outside of Quebec, Leger found, only 3% of self-identified Dippers favoured the ambitious Mulcair. In the race to replace Jack Layton, party president Topp seems to be the acknowledged favourite.

That’s not all. To the chagrin of federal Conservatives and Liberals, the NDP brand remains impressively popular, Leger found. Nationally, the Cons are pegged at 39% — but the NDP remain highly competitive, at 33%. That strongly suggests the so-called Orange Crush was no mere blip. Nationally, the NDP remain a factor, and need to be taken seriously.

In Quebec — the province that propelled the New Democrats to a historically high showing in the House of Commons — the federal party still enjoys an astonishing 43% support. The Tories and the Grits are far behind, at 19% and 11% respectively. Topp was born and raised in Quebec, and knows well the crucial importance the province plays in both the House of Commons and in New Democrat backrooms.

Another finding in the Leger poll presents the well-liked Topp with a dilemma, however.

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…about which there will be no comment!

This time the Liberals set a bear trap for Tim Hudak’s Tories. The Grits had been badly trailing the PCs when the Liberals were putting the finishing touches on their platform. So Premier Dalton McGuinty and friends slipped the $12-million tax-credit program for hiring new Canadians into the Liberal manifesto to see if the right wing of the PCs would bite on this ethnically charged issue, according to inside Grit sources. They did.

Using the term “foreigners” has alienated the new Canadian vote and outraged the soft middle which Hudak had to capture to win a majority. The polls dramatically turned as the “foreigner” issue grew. While Hudak has now put the question on the back burner, the radical right of the Tories, namely eastern Ontario candidate Randy Hillier, is stilling screaming “foreigner.” That’s killing Tory chances of swinging Toronto area ridings with their large new Canadian makeup.

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Check this out:

Families Face Massive Hudak Hydro Hike
Hudak to Impose a 44% increase during the times families use electricity most

TORONTO, Sept. 19, 2011 /CNW/ – Today, it became clear why Tim Hudak’s handlers insist he stick to their talking points and avoid specifics. The first time on this campaign that Hudak went off script, he revealed some of the details behind his proposal to end time-of-use electricity pricing. The result: bad news and significantly higher costs for families who Hudak has deceived into thinking he was giving them a break.

Under questioning from reporters, Hudak came clean for the first time on the formula he will use to replace time of use pricing. Hudak said: “The flat rate is simply set as an average of the other rates.” (Media scrum, September 19, 2011)

The average of the three existing rates is 8.5 cents per kilowatt hour. That would represent a:

• 44% increase in “off peak times” representing 64% of residential electrical usage (from 5.9 to 8.5 cents)
• 4.5% reduction during “mid peak times” representing just 18% of residential electrical usage (from 8.9 to 8.5 cents)
• 20.6% reduction during “peak times” representing just 18% of residential electrical usage (from 10.7 to 8.5 cents)

What Tim Hudak has failed to admit is that most residential usage happens during off-peak times, when rates are lowest. It is business and industry who drives up the usage during so-called “peak times.”  Hudak’s failure to understand this basic fact will result in families paying the price of his ill-conceived policy.

QUOTE:
“Tim Hudak is planning a massive increase in the cost of electricity during the times families use it most.  Tim Hudak’s policy is ill-conceived. It risks families paying significantly more and would take Ontario off track.”
– Brad Duguid, Liberal Candidate (Scarborough Centre)

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Him: “Daddy.”

Me: “Hmmm?”

Him: “Your eyebrows are super long.”

Me: “Really?”

Him: “Yeah, Dad.”

[Long pause.]

Him: “Dad, you look like a catfish.”

Me: “Ouch.”

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I can’t stop Twitter from auto-refreshing in Safari.  It’s driving me crazy.  There. Said that in 140 characters or less.  Anyone got a fix?

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Tim made a brief reference to the Ontario race. Since that contest hasn’t been covered so much in these pages—and since the political significance of Jack Layton’s passing has been covered extensively—let me offer some perspectives on federal politics from inside the Ontario Liberal war room.

For those who still cling to the view that Stephen Harper is a Master Strategist, take my word for it—he isn’t. In fact, if Ontario Tea Party leader Tim Hudak loses on Oct. 6—and I believe he will—Harper is one of the three federal Conservatives who will share the blame.

Just a few weeks ago, you see, Harper and his hangers-on journeyed to Toronto for a back-slappin’, good-ol’-boy Conservative barbecue with far-right Toronto mayor Rob Ford. There, as someone videotaped the proceedings, Harper called for a Conservative “hat trick”—in effect, so that the same conservative cabal would run the province, the GTA, and the country.

Harper’s remarks were a disaster. The PMO scrambled, comically, to scrub the evidence from the internet, but it was too late. Ontario voters—female voters, in particular—saw what he said, and they didn’t like it. Hudak started a downward slide from which he has not recovered. Ontarians do not want the same wrecking crew running everything.

The second federal Conservative to hammer Hudak’s chances was Harper crony, and MP, Scott Reid. With his immense personal wealth, Reid bankrolled a coup against progressive Ontario PCs, and helped finance his Ontario Landowner Association pals Randy Hillier and Jack MacLaren. With Reid’s help, Hillier and MacLaren split the Ontario PCs into two warring camps. And Hudak’s inability—or unwillingness—to deal with the resulting rebellion led to his two predecessors, Ernie Eves and John Tory, to denounce the Ontario PCs. The party is now like the federal Conservatives in 1993—Reformers on one side, and truly progressive Conservatives on the other. Both sides despise each other.

The third federal Conservative to play a role in the destruction of Hudak—who, remember, had a double-digit lead over my party for a year—was his campaign manager, tobacco lobbyist Mark Spiro. Spiro, who advertised the fact that he was a member of Harper’s war room, approved the disastrous anti-“foreigner” strategy that has laid waste to PC fortunes in Toronto, Ottawa, London, Windsor, and anywhere else with a significant ethnic demographic. Seeing his party’s fortunes crumble, Spiro has frantically tried to erase the anti-immigrant xenophobia, but—so far—it hasn’t worked. One poll has placed the PCs in third place in Toronto.

There are still two weeks to go in the Ontario race, and we provincial Liberals are running like we are way behind. We will be relentless.

But if we get the honour of a third term, I believe that it is three federal Conservatives—Harper, Reid and Spiro—who will have helped us do it.

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August 2, 2011: Stephen Harper calls for a “hat trick” – for Conservatives to run the country, the GTA and Ontario. Almost every day since: Conservative operatives scramble to suppress any record of Harper’s statement.

Download this video, and share it with others before voting day on October 6!  You can download the file here.

Download also found here.

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Past behaviour is the truest indicator of future behaviour.  Also, this is one of the best Ontario campaign 2011 Internet vids yet, IMHO.

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