Musings —11.02.2010 08:16 AM—
From Yaffe’s column:
That said, Conservatives hold so many more seats than Liberals, they’d have to lose an awful lot to be defeated. Not likely, given they’re polling ahead of Liberals in seat-rich Ontario — by nine percentage points.
With the greatest of respect, I think that Barbara, Gerry and many others have misread the tea leaves, as it were, in campaigns here and South of the border. Anger, as I’ve said a few times before, is a political commodity that’s been around since Jesus was a little feller. Voter anger lurks behind every second door in every riding in every single campaign. It gets a lot more ink during bad economic times, to be sure, but it ain’t anything new. In and of itself, anger isn’t what wins you a race, either.
No, what “wins” – in the Calgary and Toronto mayoralty races most particularly – is the best-run campaign. Organization , discipline, message.
The Liberals, methinks, are underestimated on the campaign front. Chretien was, too, as I recall, in 1993. And we ended up doing not badly, I think.
In the campaign, everything gets equalized – most notably, the amount you have to spend and the share of media coverage you get. With parity, Ignatieff will do a lot better than the chattering classes expect.
What do you think, folks?