, 03.21.2018 07:06 AM

Fish where there’s fish


…that’s something I say so much about campaigns that my staff have heard it a billion times. Talk about the stuff voters want you to talk about. Manage the dialogue.Thus, this from Campaign Research:

“The PCs have a significant lead over both the OLP and the ONDP. This is because the policy issues that matter the most to the electorate also happen to be the policy planks that Doug Ford is seen to be performing much better on. If Doug Ford and the PCs remain focused on these policy planks, the PCs could hold onto their lead…Kathleen Wynne and the OLP are outperforming in a significant way on some of the policy planks, but at this point those policy planks are not seen as being as important.”  – said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research Inc.

So, ipso facto, the current situation: Doug Ford is way ahead of Kathleen Wynne because he’s talking about the issues people care about. Wynne, not so much.

That’s also reflected in the latest Angus Reid, seen here.

Which brings to mind an anecdote from a few months back, when various Ontario Liberal folks were getting plenty nervous. A couple meetings were convened, at which the Ontario Liberal leader and her “chief strategist” described how they would win.

Basically, they told the assembled Nervous Nellies that, if they talked a lot about the sex-ed curriculum and stuff like that, they’d do smashingly. But no one, I’m told, asked this question: “But what if the campaign is about affordability and our perceived indifference to regular folks who don’t drive Volvos and listen to CBC and live in the Annex?”

Of such things are victories made. The other guy’s.

When you talk about stuff people don’t care about it…well, you know what happens then.


7 Comments

  1. Kelly says:

    Premier Horwath. Folks are just tired of Wynne. After 79 days they will be tired of Ford.

    • Matt says:

      The policy planks the Libs are pushing that people don’t care about, or should I say people consider less important are the same policy planks the NDP are pushing.

      So, while sure anything can happen, Premier Horwath is probably not likely.

      She is more popular than her party, Wynne is less popular than her party, and Ford is about even with the popularity of his party.

      It’s Goldylocks and the Three Bears election.

    • Pedant says:

      They won’t get tired of Ford if his musings about eliminating the provincial income tax below $30K make it to the revamped platform. They – the forgotten, heavily indebted, and struggling middle class – will very much be excited to see him any chance they get and cheer from the rafters each and every time.

      You think the NDP’s taxpayer-funded dental care, for which most middle class already have employer-funded coverage anyway and therefore only benefits those who already take the most from the welfare state, can compete with that?

  2. Bre says:

    bring back Sorbara

  3. Bre says:

    …how can her team think this is going to work..this buy buy approach will end in bye bye alright ..forgetting issue of future funding…why did you not fix before

    https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/03/21/kathleen-wynne-announces-21b-in-new-mental-health-funding-over-four-years.html

  4. Dork in East York says:

    Good points on the botched Liberal strategy.

    I think a slim majority of Ontarians oppose more socially conservative platform issues like reopening the sex-ed debate, but I don’t think it will be the issue that gets voters to the ballot box.

    Much like the election south of the border, identity politics wedge issues don’t turn votes when people perceive (rightly or wrongly) that their bills are going up and it is harder to get by.

    I think there is considerable economic anxiety that makes it difficult to be an incumbent, particularly at a provincial/state or federal level. Add in Liberal Party fatigue (four terms – longer than the Rae years and Common Sense Revolution combined) and an endless list of scandals, I don’t even think that the Ontario PCs can mess this election up.

    I’m anticipating a massive 80+ PC seat majority, with the Liberals down to as few as 15 seats, mostly in wealthier urban ridings in Toronto, Ottawa and a few university towns.

    • Peter says:

      Can you imagine what it must be like being an adviser to Ford and spending every day holding your breath and praying he doesn’t blow it with one stupid remark or fall into some clever trap set by the other side’s war room? It would age me ten years at least.

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