, 07.28.2021 11:33 AM

My latest: ten reasons Trudeau wants to go now

Justin Trudeau wants an election sooner than later.


Because, you know, he could win it. Big. 

But, but, but: a fourth wave is coming. Jagmeet Singh’s NDP is surging. Canadians don’t like Summertime elections. The don’t-go-early examples provided by David Peterson and Jim Prentice. 

And, most of all, it may make voters really mad at Trudeau. The polling agency Nanos says nearly 40 per cent of Canadians are “upset” at the prospect of voting anytime soon. 

So, given all that, why is Trudeau jonesing for a vote now? Ten reasons. 

1. His opponents. Trudeau thinks he’s a better campaigner than his opponents, and he’s not wrong. He’s beaten two Tory leaders (one a majority Prime Minister), and he’s convinced himself Erin O’Toole will make it a hat trick.

2. The polls. He’s ahead in them, across the board. In some cases, way ahead. The Conservatives, in fact, may be as much as 12 points behind the Trudeau Liberals – which would see O’Toole resigning on election night, among other things.

3. WE forget. He made vaccine acquisition a fiasco, sure, and the WE scandal cemented the perception that he is corrupt. But voters generally have a memory span of minutes: they’ve forgotten much of that stuff. Besides, it’s a pandemic: most of us can’t recall what day it is, let alone what Trudeau did last year.

4. Dishonesty abounds. The good news for Trudeau haters: Canadians tend to agree that Trudeau is dishonest. The bad news: they think everybody involved in politics is a liar. Hollering that Trudeau is corrupt gets the Opposition nowhere, because voters believe none of them would be any better.

5. Midstream horses. There’s an old cliché about changing horses midstream. And it particularly applies to pandemic politics. Canadians may not be enthusiastic about Justin Trudeau‘s performance – and slightly more than half aren’t – but they’re even less enthusiastic about big political changes in the middle of a global public health crisis.

6. The aforementioned fourth wave. The experts say it’s not a question of if, but when. So when the fourth wave happens, Justin Trudeau would prefer it happens after his unnecessary, half-a-billion-dollar election. Not during or before.

7. The Liberal war room. Trudeau Liberals may be terrible at governing, but they’re pretty darn good at campaigning. They are prepared to say and do anything to win. Anything. If they have an ideology, in fact, it’s winning elections. Their opponents, meanwhile, I think losing is principled.

8. The media. We ink-stained wretches know that Trudeau is corrupt and dishonest leader. But, when Conservative partisans continually call us in the media similarly corrupt and dishonest, we have a tendency not to write nice things about them. All evidence to the contrary, reporters are human too.

9. Incumbency. With the notable exception of Donald Trump, incumbent governments have greatly benefited from the pandemic. Challengers haven’t. In government, Trudeau controls announcements, spending and decision-making. Power and the pandemic are his friends.

10. His ego. That’s what this election is all about. Justin Trudeau wants another majority because he wants another majority. He’s obsessed with his size, you might say, like adolescent males tend to be. And that’s why he wants an election now. Period.

Could he change course? Could he put off a trip to the residence of the newly-installed Governor General? Sure. Of course.

But my money is on an election now. 

Not later.

[Kinsella was special assistant to Jean Chretien.]


  1. Martin says:

    Appropos of nothing, but JT has ZERO cred on that Habs draft pick. And yesterday he also said in his presser when asked about wasted vaccines that they were trying to persuade other countries that our vaccine program was sciency. Did that have something to do with the story in the press today that the UK was not letting us in but letting in the US, not to mention he must have got Butts’ cue cards mixed up because the answer had nothing to do with the question.

    • Gary says:

      Mailloux is a disgusting human being at every possible level and I’m saying this as a lifelong Habs fan. Lets not lie.

      That being said, I have constantly heard rumors of Trudeau’s involvement in similar behavior over the years. Nothing concrete but plenty of intimations.

  2. Miles Lunn says:

    I would add Trudeau knows in next four years, lots of stuff will come which won’t make him too popular so wants to get his majority to avoid any fallout. Inflation rising, deficit out of control, CRB will have to be wound down and no one likes losing entitlements, housing prices out of control. These are all issues that if not fixed will bite the government in the ass. Right now people are happy to be vaccinated and life starting to return to normal so wants to go before those issues start hitting the fan.

    • Nick M. says:

      I agree about the medium or long term problems.

      But people are also happy not to having politicians gobbling up screen time right now.

      Average Joe:
      “I have to listen to all this electioneering because of opportunism? But the government of the day had no resistance in passing any legislation.”

  3. Gilbert says:

    I agree Justin Trudeau wants an election. Voters, though, don’t. If Erin O’Toole runs a good campaign in which he’s seen as intelligent, hard-working, reliable and humble, he has a chance.

  4. Warren,

    He will lose primarily for two reasons: Liberals think we don’t collectively mind when we are taken for idiots by quite deliberately trying to buy our votes with our own money, you know, the taxes we pay and the taxes this Prime Minister more than likely lawfully does not.

    And then will come, courtesy of the manila envelope, this PM’s “Zaccardelli Moment” — right smack in the middle of the campaign and that will put the final nail into the Liberals’ coffin.

  5. Another thing to consider is the threat level that any given CPC leader is considered by progressives: with both Harper and Scheer, one could categorize the perceived threat level as medium to high intensity. However, O’Toole (and MacKay for that matter) are middle-of-the-road Blue Conservatives with Red tinges so they are likely a low threat factor insofar as a plurality of progressives are concerned. Of course, when I write progressives, I mean those who won’t be voting Liberal. Many will go NDP but the CPC will nonetheless pick up a respectable share of those who want the Liberals out of power, thanks to Erin’s leadership.

  6. Doug says:

    I stated in a previous post that the two main reasons are:
    1) the electorate still has religious conviction that money is free. It has fallen for the lies that current deficits will not force future austerity. I raise religion as that is the only way to explain a belief that something can be created from nothing

    2) numerous scandals must be lurking under the hundreds of billions shoveled out the ddoor in a hurry. rrudeau is the luckiest celebrity ever (I refuse to accept him as a leader) in terms of nothing sticking. Luck always runs out

    Warren touched in it with his points 1 and 7 above, but how can Conservative advisors be so inept? Katie Telford and Gerald Butts may be pure evil, but tthey are geniuses. Where are the equivalents on the CPC side? Maybe the campaign help from the UK will finally provide a cohesive strategy

    • Doug,

      Telford and Butts geniuses? Then it must be the fingerprints of someone else who are responsible strategically for blowing the majority. Can’t be this Prime Minister: no one has been able to explain to him thus far what political strategy is.

      As for “help” from the UK, just think back to how much Harper’s “help” from Australia saved the day. Not. LOL. Only unsophisticated political nobodies or rubes choose to go that way. Not real professionals.

    • Lyndon Dunkley says:

      How to say you’re over 60 without stating your age.

      The deficit hawk of years gone by has become the chicken little of today.

      If you went back to 1980 and told an economist that in 2021 US debt would be $29T and Canadian debt would be $1.2T then asked for their expectation of the current price of a loaf of bread, a litre of gasoline and a house, the answers would be in the range of $50, $100 and $10million.

      Outside of the Weimar Republic, Zimbabwe, and maybe a couple short cycles in a few South American countries, the inflation associated fears of rapid money printing have simply not occurred. Is it simply a case of national debt spiraling out of control nearly everywhere – I don’t know. I do know that deficit hawk messaging has as much a chance of success as Otoole about to begin a 10-year reign as Canada’s Prime Minister.

      • Robert White says:

        The Conservatives needs to consider the debt & deficit trap as a Zero Sum Game. They lost the oil monopoly to the Liberal Green Finance revolution and a reduction in GHGs to reduce carbon via Net Zero targets on the Paris Accord plans.

        Cons are nowhere to be found on Green Finance, or GHG reductions. Jason Kenny is learning the hard way, and Harper & Manning are providing no direction for policy.

        Harper’s one hit wonder is in fact a liability for Canadians now that it has become a serial failure in the eyes of voters.


      • Lyndon,

        Take your pick: either the velocity of money remains low to non-existent which means moderate inflation or it accelerates and off we go into hyperinflation.

        Right now, we’re Japan: they’ve spent and spent but in a deflationary environment, so debts and deficits don’t matter — until they do, which means not now in Japan.

  7. Phil in London says:

    Planet Delusional is clearly well inhabited by many who wish for better. I’m not buying the people will punish logic – here are Five reasons why there WILL be an election soon (compared to only two dated examples – Peterson and Prentice being punished).
    1)Newfoundland and Labrador government win
    2)Nova Scotia pending polls point to a win
    3)New Brunswick government win to secure majority
    4)Saskatchewan government win
    5)British Columbia government win to secure majority
    I can’t recall – Warren how did Stock Day’s challenge to your boss to call an early election go?
    The best possible result for me is a Liberal thrashing – ain’t gonna happen.
    The more likely scenario is the Liberals do the thrashing and get very long in the tooth to loose big with a new PM in 2025.
    A wild card, a conservative victory seems slim to impossible and so the two remaining green voters and many vote-parking Dippers commit to Mr Singh and put him in string opposition to a Liberal minority.
    Mr. O’Toole will be gone before the writ is dropped by this I mean not that he will resign soon but the knives are already out to cut him loose. Conservatives (I’m closer to being one than any other party member) are stupid.
    Liberals have only to fear Singh and that anti-Canada party in Quebec. If I am JT I’m calling it ASAP

  8. Douglas W says:

    Often wonder if O’Toole is playing possum?

    If he is, Libs might be in for a helluva fight.
    If he isn’t, JT is looking at 200 seats.

  9. A. Voter says:

    I was told in May that the people who work for the returning officers were given a date in August not to be out of their ridings. The Liberals have everything lined up. I think the only threat to a Liberal majority is the NDP. I see no support for the Liberals among my social media friends, compared to post 2015 when everyone gushed over Trudeau. The real threat to the Liberals is if a reporter has a harmful story to break, not the Conservatives.

    • AV,

      Yes, progressives could break primarily in two ways: the old pattern where the NDP is high in the polls when the writ is dropped and then pancakes in the campaign as progressives rush to the Liberals, or the exception where progressives surged to Jack and it was going great for them right up until the CPC cop did his dirty work…in Quebec we didn’t give a damn but in prim and proper English Canada, well.

  10. Phil,

    If past is prologue and Biden is officially and credibly medically diagnosed with cognitive decline of of one or several forms, they will simply do what they did with Reagan — they will gatekeeper for him right up until the end of his first term. In Reagan’s case, he became largely mentally unfit during his second term.

    (If past is prologue is a shameless steal from Rick Rule. LOL.)

    • david ray says:

      If past is prologue then these are just a few of the things I remember from the Harper years and this Con lot would be no different.

      Toronto G20. 1.2 Billion wasted.
      Contempt of Parliament
      Missing Aboriginal women
      Veterans affairs
      Fair Elections Act
      In and Out scheme
      Enemies list
      Temporary foreign workers
      Omnibus bills
      Afghan detainees
      Maher Arar

      Yeah, I really miss Conservatives. Not.

      • Gary says:

        Those were media manufactured scandals. Name me a real scandal. Just one.

        Hell, the Afghan detainee issue increased Harper’s support.

  11. Nick M. says:

    I think Trudeau is in a pickle. And the tactician is out of moves.

    Way back in 2005-06, I did have several identified 2004 NDP voters, say they aren’t voting NDP, because Jack’s participation in forcing an election over Christmas break.

    I’ve learned a lot after knocking on thousands of doors. Canadians don’t like frequent elections if they can be avoided.

    I think the perceived obvious opportunism will hurt Trudeau at the polls. He has little argument for breaking the fix election date law.

    Jagmeet Singh has made the case public why Trudeau has no reason.

    And yet he can’t wait till fall, as it is assumed he will be toast with economic fallout, and the tough decisions a federal government will have to make.

  12. Robert White says:

    11. Government of Canada Liberal led Insolvency is defined via Corporate Finance whereby corporation meet the insolvency criterion if they can only run government via loans & deficits.

    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wants an election primarily due to the fact that Canada is insolvent and no federal party has a plan to get to solvency with only the Cons claiming they might look at balancing the books in a decade at best.

    The Trudeau Liberals know the jig is up when the Canadian taxpayers figure out that Trudeau has unleashed the largest degree of structural inflation ever unleashed by any Canadian administration via Parliament in our entire historiography bar none.

    Economically speaking, we are staring at a system wide deflation of the money supply once Trudeau has bought off every Canadian with peanuts as financial incentive. CERB recipients like the worker holidays, and everybody knows there will be a fourth wave when the fall hits and people start to move back indoors for the fall rainy season.

    The only reason we are relatively safe in the hot summer months is due to a lack of humidity via heat waves that are breaking historical records for temperatures recorded.

    Once the fall hits everyone will realize that the Liberal Party really doesn’t know what they are doing financially or economically. The Conservatives have failed us yet again, and Poilievre will be next leader of that party as soon as O’Toole gets the boot via leadership convention again.

    Heck, Conservatives can’t even run a leadership convention that works well enough to produce a viable leader. O’Toole had the smarts and blew it.

    And frankly, Scheer was a better campaigner & leader by the numbers.


    • Robert,

      The CPC will run the tables and get out 99.99% of our vote. The Liberals and NDP not so much. Ditto for the Bloc. So, O’Toole is far from dead and let’s see how he does in the campaign before prematurely burying him politically.

      • PJH says:

        Two words: Flowing locks…….

        • Doug says:

          Yeah he is playing up the beefcake image again. There was a video of JT getting his second vaccine dose… Wearing a mask, he rolled up his sleave ro reveal a well muscled arm cosmetically enhanced by culturally appropriated tattoos. His other hand was carefully placed to draw attention to the bulge beneath his too tight pants. Post vaccine he embraced Sophie in an almost soft porn like kiss. I didn’t see the pre-vaccine setup but suspect it included taking the knee, sanitizing his hands and at least a few on cue smiles for the camera.

          Wonder is he will go for any shirtless runs and photo bomb underage girls along the Stanley Park seawall.

    • Gary says:

      Lets not pretend that vaccines didn’t play a huge role in cases declining. Mississauga is reporting that a huge majority of hospitalizations are among the unvaccinated.

  13. Phil,

    If himself goes down, the Carney machine is ready and waiting to fill the gap. Of course, you and I may share the same view of central bankers and their 1984-style monetary policy but hey, he is who he is. Big Brother is waiting in every major capital of the Western world. Don’t worry, top-down central control and observation of an individual’s personal finances MUST be a good thing. LOL. (Memo to myself: I need to sell the Brooklyn Bridge again.)

    • Gary says:

      Carney will never run. He got his balls cut off by Poilievre on live television and quickly ran off to where he came from. He’s finished.

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:


        Then why go out of his way to come out as an enthusiastic Liberal rather than remaining apolitical? Remember, the Carney bubble has been floated out in Liberal circles before. And why isn’t he running in the upcoming election? Sounds like a mighty fine piece of political strategy considering the JT train wreck. It’s called ever so subtle divorcement.

        Carney’s people already know that they can take Freeland in a walk. Mighty powerful justification for continuing to remain in the spotlight and navigate just below the radar.

      • Martin says:

        Everyone needs to watch that. “Thank-you so much”. Gold.

  14. Nick,

    Harper broke the fixed election date in 2008. Worked out great that time.

    • Nick M. says:


      Though Harper could claim to have an excuse, he made the case that parliament was dysfunctional under the minority. Harper could pretend he had a legitimate reason.

      Under this current minority government, weirdly the juvenile behaviour seems to be only from the party in power, with their obstruction of committees and such. Trudeau can’t pretend to have a legitimate reason.

      • Nick,

        IF they have half a brain, if, in the PMO, they know perfectly well that the number one threat to their staying in power — not just winning another majority — comes not from the CPC, NDP, BQ or GPC. In fact, it comes in the form of internal manilas coming straight from a pissed off and unjustly humiliated stakeholder: here’s a hint, it starts with three letters.

  15. Martin says:

    I’m with the government and here to help.


    We are way behind the US and the UK getting these people out because of form filling bureaucrats. JT should take 5 minutes out from his vanity tour and deal with this. He is going to have blood on his hands.

  16. Winnipeg Hardcore circa 1980 says:

    hmmm. who to vote for
    Liberals: corrupt
    Conservatives: corrupt with the stinking albatross of social conservatism that apparently the majority of Canadians don’t like.
    NDP: socialists that will make the Liberal debt seem like like a lost penny.
    Greens: Shot themselves in the foot and are socialists (BTW probably infiltrated with Liberal spies).
    PPC: the scuttlebutt is that there are racists in the party
    Communists: communists
    Bloc: only available in Quebec

    Where is the Rhino party when you need them?

    • Gary says:

      Just vote conservative man. Social Conservatives are a media construct created by Gerry Butts. They have no power and zero ability to change laws around marriage equality and reproductive rights. Just vote Conservative..it’s the only truely Canadian party anyway.

      • Doug says:

        Social policy is a figment of Liberal strategists’ imagination. Society always leads on social issues, never government. Social issues are easier to turn into emotional motivators. Politics is a form of marketing which is the art and science of manipulating rational decisions into emotional ones.

        The social conservatives within the CPC coalition appear inordinately strong because the party can’t decide for what it stands.

        I just want three things out of federal politics:
        1) Inability for government to borrow for non-capital items. Payments to individuals or employees do not deliver recurring benefit and should never be debt funded

        2) More literal interpretation between Provincial and Federal jurisdictions, as that would promote accountability

        3) Moves away from group rights. Citizens can never be equal if government has obligations towards groups such as public sector unions, French speakers, the founding provinces or indigenous narions. If it takes one time payments to buy out the groups, get on with it

  17. I doubt they will call it until mid-September, at the earliest. What with Nova Scotia going on August 17, they’ll want to give Nova Scotians at least a month’s break before they drag them to the polls a second time.

    But the real factor will be the polls: they’re dropping (for now): IPSOS = Liberals +6; Mainstreet = Liberals +2; Angus Reid = Liberals +3. Can’t wait to see the next Léger numbers.

    They face a quantifiable malaise in the next campaign and they know it. Their support is now a mile wide and slowly heading for an inch deep. That’s what has them pretty worried and showing pause. In short, they aren’t nearly as cocky as they used to be. And with good reason.

    • The Doctor says:

      O’Toole needs some sort of positive message or program that can resonate with voters. That was part of the genius of Harper’s GST cut (even though I opposed it personally). It was something punchy and memorable that voters could understand.

      If O’Toole doesn’t do that, I doubt he’ll succeed. This Liberal corruption thing, however true, just doesn’t seem to have a ton of traction with voters. And having no discernable positive program to push leaves the CPC open to the Liberal attack machine, however hackneyed and eye-rolling it is (the Hidden Agenda! Women will be frog-marched out of abortion clinics!).

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:


        Liberals in the Trudeau age take voters for gullible imbeciles. It didn’t work for long when Martin tried it. Harper wanted nothing do with abortion restrictions. He sensed quite correctly that most Canadians would have none of it. His actual personal preference will remain a mystery. O’Toole on the otherhand is unambigously pro-choice. Harper refused government consent for private members’ bills. O’Toole will also do that so abortion restriction bullshit will never work as a true wedge issue for the Trudeau Liberals, but they’ll still give it the old college try.

        • The Doctor says:

          I’m reminded of H.L. Mencken’s quote that nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people. Same thing applies here, sadly.

          • Ronald O'Dowd says:


            PC suggests I shouldn’t smile but I can’t for the life of me resist. LOL.

            I wonder. Why will Trump and his so-called fraud commission do with those countless newly arrived millions? Why not find any meaningful fraud, of course. And then, where does that money go? I could go further but as a lawyer I’m already somewhat allergic to potential libel suits.

  18. Robin says:

    There is a another lurking danger for Trudeau and why he should go earlier than later: As vaccine efficacy wanes, fully vaccinated are left with a weakened immune system and at risk for ADE (antibody dependent enhancement) when infected again with covid. ADE will make covid variant infection for the fully vaccinated much deadlier. If Trudeau waits and ADE arises, getting re elected will be the last of his worries.

    • Gary says:

      Go back to Infowars loser

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:


        Just because Robin articulated a fine piece of political strategy doesn’t necessarily mean she or he supports or will even vote Liberal.

        I can theoretically come up with strategy for this Prime Minister but I’ll never vote Liberal in the next campaign.

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:


      One also wonders about Israel’s three-dose policy and Pfizer’s public pronouncements on same.

  19. Robin says:

    If allowed a 2nd comment, in the unlikely event that O’Stoole won, the big banks and UN Globalists like Carney, Blackrock, Brookefield, Cdn oligarchs from Quebec & Maritimes would all be there “to help”, and O’Stoole would be there for them. End result is nothing good for the electorate as they are screwed either way.

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:


      This comment reminds me of our other thriving jewel, The Irvings. Another great success story with power and influence and the canny ability to wield same. I doubt Brison would disagree.

  20. Douglas W says:

    Agree with Ronald. Conservatives, holding fast at around 31%.

    Gotta figure out a way to win at least half of the GTA.

    If the Libs win 50 of the 54 GTA ridings once again, they’re holding onto power.

  21. Robin says:

    Trudeau’s support is a mile wide, but only an inch deep. He just stacked the senate with 5 new partisans. I can’t help but think this signals that rather than risk losing power in an election, Trudeau’s draconian legislation like Bills C-10, C-36 and who knows what else is coming, will now sail through the senate.

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:


      Am I mistaken? Are there not three independent blocks of Senators who make up the majority? It was my understanding that most if not all of the recent appointments were independents? But I’ll admit that I didn’t follow it closely.

  22. Ronald O'Dowd says:


    No question there are pre-writ “advertising” rules already established by Elections Canada.

    Take it from someone who’s been there, trying to give the heave-ho to the leader is a lost game unless your polls have cratered — and O’Toole remains competitive.

    For my part, I’m not rocking the boat. I’ll save my comments for after the election and they will reflect how the CPC campaign went.

    IMHO, it’s ALL about political strategy: most CPC leadership aspirants have a great deal of trouble divorcing themselves from their mediocre strategists. If Erin fails to hire Daisy, that’ll prove it once again…he’ll have listened to his strategists alone. Sure, they got him the leadership but what have they already done to put the CPC in first place in the polls pre-writ? Exactly. All political strategists are only as good as what they’ve done for you LATELY. End of story where political strategists are concerned.

    As for Poilièvre, I’ve still not gotten the straight goods about what happened with that demotion-lateral move? For Erin’s sake, he’d better be lily-white on this one, otherwise.

    PP is smart enough not to become Dalton Camp. But others, perhaps not so much. O’Toole better have been totally above board with PP, PM and others otherwise as they say, karma’s a…

  23. Patrick says:

    His benefit plan left too many in the cold – people at risk who had worked hard all their lives left to suffer unstable housing – because they had cancer or were injured or recovering from surgery their timing was off so they were forced to live in unsafe conditions while in a vulnerable state . Then they’re discriminated against by pseudo status clubs pushing FC alee pretense – should have been a guaranteed income benefit – instead he played a class game and entrenched inequality – dire outcome for some – the benefits excluded hard working Canadians who were unfortunate, got sick or had cancer or surgery *- the kind of benefit every cancer patient needs went to healthy young people who weren’t at much of a ris

  24. Patrick says:

    His benefit plan left too many in the cold – people at risk who had worked hard all their lives left to suffer unstable housing – because they had cancer or were injured or recovering from surgery their timing was off so they were forced to live in unsafe conditions while in a vulnerable state . Then they’re discriminated against by pseudo status clubs pushing FC alee pretense – should have been a guaranteed income benefit – instead he played a class game and entrenched inequality – dire outcome for some – the benefits excluded hard working Canadians who were unfortunate, got sick or had cancer or surgery *- the kind of benefit every cancer patient needs went to healthy young people who weren’t at much of a ris

  25. Patrick says:

    The kind of class structures benefits created in the pandemic -i worked harder finished my education and have been kind to those less fortunate – voted liberal and I support the charter and all the liberal values – in the pandemic they destabilized life and fed people with too much to eat – created uncertainty for the duration of the pandemic and destabilized life for people whose only fault was the timing of their sickness or disease – we have to seperate benefits and health coverage from employment – cancer and surgeries aren’t the fault of their victims – cabinet ministers use.canvrr as an excuse to.fly around yet cancer patients get absolutely nothing – should be ashamed.mr.trudeau

  26. DAVE STEVENS says:

    TRUDEAU has the same mentality as the homeless only he was born with a silver spoon in his mouth never had to work a day in his life. there is no reason for them being homeless,. there is no reason for no money there are jobs everywhere . they want the people that are working to pay for them being lazy’ why work when you are spoon fed

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