02.13.2014 08:49 AM

Baseless by-election blathering

So, the good people of Thornhill and Niagara vote today.  Here are my predictions, and I expect all of you to mock me if (when) I am shown to be wrong.

  1. Thornhill: Seriously? Harper was in Israel when this by-election was called.  Canadian Jews are conservative.  Hudak will keep it, Wynne will be second (but not close) and the NDP will only be kept alive by endangered species protection laws.
  2. Niagara Falls: This one’s the big one.  It was an Ontario Liberal seat for a long, long time.  The Wynne Liberals are going to finish in a distant third place, however, and the NDP are going to win it – and it’s right next door to Tim Hudak’s home riding, too.  For both Wynne and Hudak, an NDP victory will represent humiliation on a historic scale.  For Horwath, it means she’s a lot closer to being Premier of Ontario.

If I’m right – and of course, I am – it means a Spring election.  Niagara Falls will give Horwath what she needs to stare down  Sid Ryan and his ilk, who cravenly want to prop up Wynne as long as possible.

Who will win the election? The Ontario NDP, methinks.  That’s been my view for months, and all that has happened in the past year has reinforced that view.

 

23 Comments


  1. Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /nfs/c05/h06/mnt/72829/domains/warrenkinsella.com/html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
    john robinson says:

    For once you make sense! Funny that the day has come that it is writen the leader of the NDP would be at odds with a labour leader.


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      Warren says:

      At odds? She hates his guts. Won’t even share a stage with him.


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        Joe Harrington says:

        And with the OFL collapsing underneath him, things will only get worse.


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    Matt says:

    Can you really put that much stock in by-election results as a sign of things to come in a general though?

    Usually, not always but usually half (sometimes less than half) the turnout of a general election. Plus in this as in most by-election senario’s the results won’t change the balance of power.


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      Warren says:

      True enough. But it gives us some fun on a cold february morn, don’t it?


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    SD says:

    On the polling map, there was an ethnic division between Jewish and non-Jewish voters in Thornhill. Blue in the Jewish neighbourhoods and Red in the non-Jewish neighbourhoods.


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      Warren says:

      But do you think the PCs are actually going to lose?


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    Beth Higginson says:

    Re: Thornhill – not all Jewish people will be voting for the Conservative candidate today. My partner is Jewish and his mother will be voting Liberal today and I think a lot of her Hungarian Jewish friends will be doing so as well.

    I have canvassed in the Italian part of the riding and they were very receptive to Sandra Yeung-Racco as she is a current councillor. Her husband Mario Racco was the former MPP.

    The conservative candidate is new and tends to say things like the following:
    “I don’t think that, especially in the Thornhill riding, there’s too many families… that are working ­—…. at real minimum-wage jobs”

    http://www.yorkregion.com/news-story/4338455-thornhill-tory-candidate-martow-blasts-liberals-minimum-wage-plan-as-feel-good-message/

    There’s a postive nature of Kathleen’s and Justin’s message that resonates with people not the message of Stephen Harper or Tim Hudak

    http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2014/02/11/the_essence_of_harper_government_is_personal_cruelty_mallick.html

    It doesn’t’ mean there won’t be a fight – but I will be working on GOTV today and trying to help Sandra win.


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    Iris Mclean says:

    I truly hope your prediction re the general election is correct. The Libs deserve to be tossed, but the “smirking one” and his band of Harrisites make my skin crawl.


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    KenzoS says:

    My sad Liberal lament:

    In Niagara we will fall
    Thornhill will be scorned
    Spring brings a writ call
    And a loss unadorned

    oh well, here’s to hoping the Ontario tradition of voting federally and provincially in contradiction of each other, will continue.


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    Scott says:

    The Horvath myth will be exposed during an election. Once the media starts putting the spot light on her and her parties non policies she will crack.
    We have already started to see it when reporters ask her difficult questions and she loses her cool.
    She does not have what it takes to be Premier.


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      Warren says:

      I recall those words being said about Messrs. Chretien and McGuinty – in TV ads, even!


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        Reality.Bites says:

        And sure enough, M. Chrétien never became premier of Ontario!


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    Bluegreenblogger says:

    Once upon a time Ontario had a lack-lustre Liberal Minority, and a hangover from 40 years of Tory rule. They turned to the pile that did not stink (yet) for a new Government. They may be coming around to another kick at the can. Certainly the dippers baggage is less recent vintage. Hudak can just forget about being Premier. Wynn has an uphill battle. It will be an interesting year in Ontario.


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    Chris says:

    Ontario teachers (rank and file, anyway) won’t need much of a nudge to vote NDP en masse.

    Lots of disillusion with what has happened over the last two years.


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      Joe Harrington says:

      I think teachers will, en masse, stay at home on election day.


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        Matt says:

        Not a chance.

        That would risk a Hudak win, which would be very bad news for them.

        Besides, Wynne threw as much as $500 million at the teachers after she became Premier. She and the unions are buddies again.


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    Matt says:

    The Jewish vote stuck with the Liberals provincially in 2011 in Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre – Colle and Kwinter won by very wide margins. In St. Paul’s, Hoskins crushed his Tory opponent everywhere including the Jewish neighborhoods. Yet Thornhill seems to have become a Tory stronghold, both federally and provincially. Steve Paikin suggested after the last provincial election that the riding’s Orthodox Jews vote as a bloc and voted for the PCs – presumably they were still mad at the Liberals over school funding and probably saw Bernie Farber as too progressive. Poll-by-poll results seem to be confirm this; in Orthodox polls, in Paikin’s words, “the Ontario PC Party got almost all the votes.”

    http://theagenda.tvo.org/blog/agenda-blogs/what-really-happened-thornhill

    It seems to me that the Orthodox voting bloc is big enough to make the riding nearly impossible for the Liberals to overcome.


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    james curran says:

    Although internal shit shows and NDP victory in Niagara it would be really difficult for me to predict Gatesy beatin’ Joyce and Bart. Many Liberals weren’t happy with the “non-nomination” fight and may be secretly helping the Gates campaign. Lord knows he didn’t have any help to begin with. The Maves machine has been in full blast for almost a year. We’ll have to see if the Premier’s recent spendsaganza in Niagara (Hospital, race track, etc) pays off for Joyce.


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    Rick Barnes says:

    Wrong liberal won leadership. That is what changes the Liberals chances of winning general election.


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    chris g says:

    Hey Warren. Way to call ’em. I hear Forum needs a seer. You in?


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    Matt says:

    Thornhill – PC won by about 2000 ove the Libs. NDP very distant third.

    Niagra Falls – NDP won by about 1000 over the PC. Libs a very distant third with under 20% of the vote.


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    Kaiser Helmets 'n Motorbikes says:

    Had to check the datestamp on this post. Looks like a news report from this morning, not a prediction from yesterday… impressive. But Hudak wins a majority this spring!

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