09.17.2015 06:19 PM

CTV came up with a poll, so I did too

Apparently intent on repeating that little mid-campaign incident back in 2008 – you know the one, it led to Senator Mike Duffy – CTV is back at it again.

They’ve aggressively publicized a poll, mere hours before a crucial debate, saying that Justin Trudeau is way, way behind in his home riding of Papineau.

Now, you may have noticed that I don’t really linger by the phone, waiting for Justin Trudeau to call. We’re not close. There’s a reason for that.

But he – and, more particularly, CTV’s viewers – deserve better than this “poll,” this heap of horseshit, that was

[Wait for it.]


That isn’t the only problem with the poll. Here are a couple others, which you can check out yourself in the poll’s “methodology.”  Specifically, check out the weighting.

  • Look at what percentage voted Liberal in 2011, versus the number of people who voted NDP in 2011 in this sample.
  • If the poll was done properly, they would have sampled 28 per cent 2011 New Democrats as opposed to the 38 per cent they included in this sample.
  • Similarly, they would have included somewhere near 38 per cent 2011 Liberal voters, as opposed to the 14 per cent that they put in the sample here.
  • If anything, this poll shows that NDP voters are coming over to the Liberal column, not vice versa.


I think it’s appalling that CTV (who I like) has done this to Trudeau (who I, well, you know).  It’s appalling that viewers and voters have been let down in this way.

So my dog, Roxy, has commissioned a poll, too.  Here it is.  Vote early, vote often.

[polldaddy poll=9083296]


  1. bigcitylib says:

    You are an honorable man, more or less. Bit erratic, but…

  2. JPSD says:

    Breaking News:

    CTV is reporting that a poll showing numbers that are indicating Thomas Mulcair thinks that Thomas Mulcair’s chances of becoming PM on Oct 19 are 100%. This poll was commissioned by NDP.

    – – – – – – – – – – – –

    In all seriousness, this is a pretty lame-ass attempt by the NDP to try and distract from what was a hilariously brutal release of their campaign-promises costing. The smart and right thing for CTV to do would be to expunge any record of them trying to pass on an asininely partisan poll as legitimate. But since this poll will likely be forgotten after tonight once it gets eaten up in the news cycle by the post-debate discussion, its not going to have any relevance.

    Just pathetic that the CTV would be desperate enough for a “new scoop” to report on this and even more pathetic that the NDP thinks this is how they’re going to win this election.

    • Chris says:

      I’m not surprised at CTV. Look what they did to Stephane Dion. I haven’t forgotten and have never watch CTV again.

      • JPSD says:

        Yea, I probably won’t be watching CTV for a little bit just out of protest to their stupidity on this one.

        But it speaks volumes on whoever pulled this poll up and thought that from an optic stand-point, it was a good idea.

        It also really erodes the credibility of pollsters in general. Average voters are skeptical of polling, but finding out parties are commissioning polling THEN releasing it to the media for it then to be passed on as new, well, it doesn’t bode well for confidence.

      • Maps Onburt says:

        Stephane Dion did what happened to him. If he couldn’t do a simple sit down with a journalist and answer a few basic questions even with serial retakes, then he didn’t deserve to be PM. CTV saved us from that one…

  3. Chris says:

    Where are the methodologies posted? I cannot find them.

  4. Matt says:

    The Dippers have been planning this story for three days.

    From September 14th:


    All this does is prove yet again pollsters can make a poll say whatever those paying for it want it to say.

    • JPSD says:

      Actually, what this proves is that the NDP place way too much relevance on their own hubris-driven messaging than they do on reality based strategizing.

      Take a look at their new hot-shot spokesman/candidate, Andrew Thomson. They prop this guy up in a riding they haven’t a chance in hell of winning (nor does he live in), only because they want to stand their finance guy up against Harper’s finance guy, while simultaneously bleeding votes from the Liberals. If they actually cared about getting Thomson elected they should’ve parachuted him into a riding that is actually winnable, like they did with Chow. Except they don’t. They only care about parading him around like some sort of financial god so people don’t realize that they’ve got a bench as deep as a high-school debate team.

      Even at their best in 2011, the NDP came second to Trudeau in Papineau. This was when he wasn’t even the leader of the Liberals and the party almost collapsed nationally. Yet the NDP is so confident that their eleventh-hour prop-up candidate with a history losing, is going to knock-off Trudeau? Next their going to tell us they can take Stephen Harpers seat.

      Its like Mulcair keeps saying, “don’t let them tell you it can’t be done” …..because they’re probably right.

  5. Quito Maggi says:

    Warren, the poll is accurate, I have looked at the report and the methodology is clear, they have weighed for age and gender. This poll of Francophones is 100% correct. As we all know, Papineau is 100% francophone…..isn’t it?

    • Warren says:

      Thanks man. I will pass that along to my source.

      • Jnap says:

        Mulcair will do anything to win as many seats as he can. He stoops to personal swipes and “zingers” and now to a “poll” . It is always a risk for a party leader who thinks he has to be everywhere at once, that he doesn’t spend enough time in his own riding.

    • Matt says:

      This CROP poll has a pretty small sample size though, no?

      I’ve noticed your company has sample sizes in the 650 to 700 range for riding level polls.

    • JPSD says:

      With all due respect, Quito –that’s utter bullshit.

      Because Papineau is a riding that is 100% francophone, that somehow provides legitimacy to this poll?

      As Warren pointed out, the sampling for this poll is a hugely perverted to give the impression that voters en-masse are moving in a direction that they are not.

      Then again, Mainstreet isn’t exactly at the forefront of unfiltered polling analysis either so I could understand where you’re coming from on this.

  6. davie says:

    I wonder who will get a senate appointment for running this one?
    Irks me that NDP is involved.

  7. Joe says:

    I haven’t trusted the Canadian corporate media for years and yes this includes the CBC. When they tell me the time of day I check my watch to make sure they’re not lying to me – AGAIN.

  8. Mike says:

    I would simply call this “poll” bullcrap. In 2011, Mr. Trudeau won Papineau quite handily despite the fact that the Liberals were on route to their worst electoral showing ever, so its very hard to believe that Mr. Trudeau would be in danger of losing in Papineau when the Liberals are at a minimum 10 percent higher nationally in public opinion this year. This poll, quite simply defies logic. Lets just remember that in 1993, and I’m sure Warren does, when the Liberals were on route to forming a majority, the media were suggesting that Jean Chretien was in grave danger of losing in Saint Maurice. We all know how that turned out (Mr. Chretien not only won, but held the riding until his retirement). In fact, it was Prime Minister Campbell that lost her own riding instead in 1993, when the media thought that she was safe. If anything, I would strongly suggest that if any leader(s) that are in trouble, it would be Mr. Duceppe and Mr. Mulcair.

  9. CanadianKate says:

    I met someone this afternoon who has been canvassing on the ground in Papineau for Justin.

    What is interesting is that he doesn’t live in the riding. Or the area. Or the province. Neither do I.

    It made me wonder if the rumours that Justin is in trouble there are true. Then tonight I see this post. The poll may be faulty but I’m beginning to think the rumours are true.

  10. JH says:

    Why can’t we vote for all of the above?

  11. Maps Onburt says:

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Justin lost his seat to the Orange Wave as the Liberals are not very popular in Quebec these days and Trudeau is fanning the flames against separatists outside of Quebec (he’s OK with me for that) but that poll (like every other one in the past six months) is crap. A pox on all their houses. Until Canadians stop paying attention to these things (and opening up the articles that rely or opine upon them, they’ll be more and more of them. No wonder 40% of Canadians stay home.

  12. e.a.f. says:

    well you didn’t give us the all of the above so I voted for one, but really, its all of the above. I know both the Liberals and the NDP want to win, but really, boys attacking each other, it just will result in a Con win and that benefits no one. The name of the game is A B C. As a life long NDP voter I will vote Liberal if their candidate has a better chance to win or Green, it is Vancouver island anyhow.

  13. Jim Curran says:

    this poll is akin (pun intended) to the skewed report David Akin spun the other night in that bullshit article. Could he be jockeying for the next senate appointment? Stating a party spent more money on something than they did the previous year does not mean they spent the money they PROMISED to spend in their budget or to the groups he mentions. But hey what do I know.

  14. Bruce Marcille says:

    I heard it on the CBC while driving and didn’t swerve into oncoming traffic. I dismissed it as the white-noise of modern politics without so much as a hiccup.

    And I flat-out want Trudeau to lose, a la Iggy, but you’d have to go back to “DEWEY WINS” to see a more obvious polling failure.

  15. Ropshin says:

    Before you dismiss the CROP poll out of hand look at the Mainstreet poll of Papineau released today. Justin leads by only 33 to 28.
    A national leader and two term incumbent polling only 33% in his own riding. That’s nothing to boast about.

  16. Andre Goulet says:

    A little background on the riding:

    Parc-Extension, which makes up 60% of the Papineau electorate, is populated with people from all over, including the Greek population (who vote Lib) as well as large Indian and Pakistani communities. It’s the most diverse neighbourhood in the city. Trudeau lost the Muslim vote with his support of Bill C-51 so he’s vulnerable here.

    The other 40%, just across ave. du Parc in Villeray, are Italian (also legacy Libs) and Francophone. The Liberal Party continues to be unpopular with a majority of French Quebeckers but the Italian vote is likely secure.

    Trudeau beat the BQ candidate by 8000 votes in ’08, a decent margin, and the NDP by 4000 votes in ’11, which isn’t a very comfortable margin in a riding this size.

    Legace-Dawson is well known in Montreal and won a strongly contested nomination against four other candidates. The NDP has calculatingly run a competitive opponent. You bet they’d love to take him out in his own backyard, which, it’s true, he’s never lived in and has no real connection to.

    He’s really in for a tough re-election fight.

  17. Ron says:

    It reeks of Lynton Crosby. So does the “old stock” thing.

    Keep it up cobber, fly that freak flag high.

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