04.29.2019 07:23 AM

#LavScam fallout: governments defeat themselves

Three quick takeaways:

  1. LavScam has shredded the Trudeau government brand.  When Trudeau is his government’s brand, that’s a big problem. (For him.)
  2. Scheer and Singh played LavScam right.  They remembered that, when your opponent is destroying himself, don’t interrupt him.
  3. That “doing worse” number is brutal.

This:

A new poll conducted by Leger for The Canadian Press suggests the governing federal Liberals have lost ground to the Conservatives over the past month.

Overall, 31 per cent of respondents polled after the federal budget was released Tuesday said they would vote for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if an election were held now, a decline of about three percentage points from February.

That compared with 37 per cent who said they would back the Conservatives under leader Andrew Scheer, a one-point increase from February, while 12 per cent said they would vote NDP and eight per cent the Greens.

Scheer also jumped ahead of Trudeau on the question of who would make a better prime minister as the Tory leader got the backing of 25 per cent of respondents compared with 24 per cent for Trudeau, who has been struggling to contain damage from the SNC-Lavalin affair.

As for the budget, which the Liberals are hoping will help turn the page on SNC-Lavalin, 12 per cent of respondents said it was good and 19 per cent that it was bad, but 39 per cent said they didn’t really know about it.

And this:

OTTAWA — A new online poll conducted by Leger for The Canadian Press suggests the Trudeau Liberals haven’t convinced Canadians the country is doing better under their stewardship.

In all 46 per cent of respondents said Canada is doing worse since Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government was elected in 2015, while only 22 per cent believed the country is doing better and 27 per cent said things are the same.

Leger’s executive vice-president Christian Bourque said these numbers come despite economic indicators showing the country’s economy is performing better than in 2015.

Regional concerns particularly in Western Canada over the state of the oil and gas industry, are affecting the way voters are viewing the overall state of the country, Bourque said.

“In Alberta, for example, we see that 59 per cent of people believe Canada is doing worse, so there are regional issues affecting that overall number, but it is quite staggering,” Leger said.

Leger’s internet-based survey was conducted using computer-assisted web interviewing technology from Feb. 15 to 19. It heard from 1,529 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, who have the right to vote in Canada and were randomly recruited from the firm’s online panel.

 

14 Comments

  1. the real Sean says:

    PM Zoolander experiences polling data differently than everyone else.

  2. Charles says:

    The problem that it is very unlikely Sheer will pull a majority. And defeated by a minority Conservative, Trudeau will form a coalition with NDP to hang in power. We saw it B.C. were defeated Liberals refused to leave. Besides, such an entitled narcissic elite as Trudeau believe he was sent with a heavenly right to “save” his subjects (us) and the planet with his social engineering agenda.

    I believe we will be stuck with at least another 2 years of this government. This will give enough time for Trudeau to finish his corruption implementation legacy in all states affairs: judicial, legislature and polotical. Afterward, it will be too late to undo, if Canada survives.

    • Mike Jeffries says:

      Indeed, Scheer is surrounded by leftist in the Liberals, NDPers, and Greens.
      None of them will support a Con minority if a Liberal/NDP/Green gov’t can form!
      Scheer has no chance with those polling numbers.
      Scheer needs to find a reason for Canadians to choose him over them all. One ring to rule them all!
      And, it isn’t rocket science. Like Alberta, it is jobs and the economy.

    • During the Harper minorities, the Liberals supported him unconditionally for most of the period. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Liberals do it again.

    • Charles,

      Do you think the NDP are idiots? What do you think would happen to the NDP brand, in a subsequent election, if they propped up Trudeau? They would be decimated.

      • Charles says:

        Ronald, This will be the only time the NDP will ever get closer to be part of a Canadian government. They wouldn’t’t mind supporting Trudeau. And Sheer cannot fight against all lefties + the Media, bribed with the fresh 600$ millions from the Liberals.GEU4

      • Trudeau would probably step down after losing the election, so the NDP could support the Liberals without supporting Trudeau.

      • Gord says:

        Being the junior partner in a coalition is usually a losing proposition. Either you get punished by your own base as a “sellout” (eg the Liberal Democrats in Britain), or if the government is unpopular you get dragged down along with the main party (eg Irish Labour), or if the government is popular, the larger party gets all the credit and you get squeezed out (eg the FDP in Germany, the Ontario NDP after propping up Peterson).

        If I were the NDP, I’d be very leery of a coalition. Confidence and supply in exchange for some key concessions might make more sense.

  3. Miles Lunn says:

    While one poll, some interesting regionals and looking at others I think Trudeau should be very worried.

    1. Doing horrible in the Prairies as one might expect but when you have an area with 2o% of the population that hates your guts that makes the math a bit more difficult

    2. Ontario usually votes opposites and Doug Ford is not very popular yet despite this still tied or trailing in Ontario and if you cannot win Ontario tough to win nationally.

    3. BC is all over the map, but hardly numbers to be optimistic about, but not as bad as elsewhere.

    4. Lead in Quebec is dwindling and the whole plan was to gain seats in Quebec to offset losses elsewhere. More likely hold seats in Quebec, lose elsewhere if things don’t change.

    5. Trailing in Atlantic Canada. That’s right, trailing the Tories in a region that they won by a whopping 40 points 4 years ago. Even if polls are wrong in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals in 2015 won by similar to margins to what Tories won Alberta by, this would be like the Tories tied or trailing in Alberta. Sure things were going to tighten up here and it was unlikely to be a repeat of 2015, but not this big a drop.

  4. Angel Martin says:

    I’m sure Warren remembers, in the run up to the 1993 campaign, Campbell started polling competitively and Chretien made the famous Nervous Nellies comment.

    Scheer hasn’t made the sale yet, just like Chretien hadn’t before the ’93 campaign started. It was the missteps by Campbell/Tory/Gregg during the campaign that turned the ’93 election into an extinction level even for the Progressive Conservatives.

    Let’s see if the 2019 Liberals can match or exceed the campaign “mastery” of Campbell/Tory/Gregg ’93.

    Based on the last few months, I’d say it is possible.

    • Angel Martin says:

      that’s “extinction level event”

    • Gord says:

      Bingo. Chretien was dismissed as “yesterday’s man” going into 1993, as I recall. Campbell was riding high just off the summer barbecue circuit.

      Realistically, the Tories were going to lose that election – too much Mulroney baggage. But they could, and should, have salvaged enough seats (50-60) for a credible Official Opposition. It was the combination of an inept Tory campaign (“Is this a Prime Minister?”, “Elections are no time to talk about serious issues”), a masterful Liberal campaign (the Red Book, the War Room), and two convenient alternatives for alienated PC voters (Reform and the Bloc) that turned 1993 into an “extinction level event” (good choice of phrase).

      The Liberals have had some horrible campaigns in their day as well – 1984 and 2006 spring to mind (I’m still shocked that Martin managed over 100 seats despite that trainwreck of a campaign) so it’s definitely not out of the realm of possibility.

      If the Tories frame the ballot question as trust and leadership, they could win, but Scheer is still a blank slate to many Canadians. Having closed-door meetings with oil execs isn’t helping.

  5. This is already Scheer’s election to lose. If they don’t bozo the campaign, demographics will take care of the rest and Scheer will get his majority.

    Ontario has already kissed off the Liberals.

  6. Derek Pearce says:

    So much of it has to do with how pissed with Ford the Ontario electorate is by the time October rolls around. Remains to be seen. Ford is far from beloved but he’s not totally despised either.

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