09.10.2021 08:14 AM

With a week to go

31 Comments

  1. Phil in London says:

    Maybe I’m being a little picky but I do feel the Prentice situation a bit different from the other two.

    1) Prentice was coming off a leadership win and newly minted as premier. He was replacing a caretaker premier and the election was early but there was an argument he needed HIS mandate. Not unlike the justification of Paul Martin or John Turner. His election bid was 3 plus years into a majority mandate but I do agree he could have waited.

    2) Peterson’s was more opportunity minded like trudeau and he had no reason at all to ask for a new mandate. What makes his move perhaps more crass than trudeau is he had a real majority not a minority that the other parties would not topple.

    I would call Peterson’s the bigger blunder. Depending on September 20th trudeau could be close to a tie but Prentice’s biggest similarity was the scope of loss not the reasons for calling. He may have failed to justify his reasoning for a fresh mandate but the other two are purely examples of being opportunistic.

    Another dissimilarity Prentice and Peterson made way for someWhat historic change. No dipper government had formed in Alberta and Ontario and especially in Ontario have not come close again.

    O’Toole over trudeau – the only person in Canada seeing a huge difference is trudeau. Unless there is a major shift from the two traditional forces like a strong PPC showing or an NDP overtake of libs this is just one twit who fell in love with his face more than we all did.

  2. A. Voter says:

    A weak man is as strong as the group he belongs to. Trudeau is losing. The Liberal party is not. Atlantic Canada is swinging back to the Liberals. Liberals will likely win some urban Prairie seats now held by Conservatives. They aren’t projected to lose many seats in BC or Quebec at this point. Ontario is holding. Another Liberal minority. I’d like to be wrong. Where do people see Conservatives gaining seats?

    • Douglas W says:

      Agreed: Liberal brand, very strong.
      Doubt, they’ll pick up Prairie seats.

      Lose a few in the Lower Mainland; a few in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

      Drop about eight seats in Ontario.

      They’ll end up ahead of the Conservatives on election night.
      Libs 142, Conservatives 136.

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      AV,

      I may already be ancient at 60, but the Legault thing is simply unprecedented in modern times, other than ages ago with Duplessis. That may or may not swing non-La Métropole seats to the CPC.

  3. jsa says:

    Still thinking there’s an explanation for this ‘unnecessary, unwanted early election’. Trudeau is desperate to secure a majority – and soon. Why?

  4. As Doc once affectionately said to me, this is clear cut case of cognitive dissonance: where the same voters reward provincial governments during COVID-19 with an equal or greater mandate while seemingly about to flush this Prime Minister and his government down the dumper. Go figure.

    • PJH says:

      I grumbled a bit about having a provincial election mid pandemic in BC,,,,but I think we were all resigned to the fact that it was going to be with us for a while, so accepted it….we also had an NDP govt that had given us pretty good govt(being a minority govt…the Bolshies in the party were not allowed to go crazy) and so rewarded them with a majority(helped by one of the worst BC Liberal leaders and campaigns on record)….The Federal election is different….we here in BC are generally not enamored with M. Trudeau, wildfires were still running rampant in BC, and the new deadlier and more contagious Delta variant of covid had started to raise its ugly head in BC….so we were/are in no mood whatsoever for an early election, and consequently, I hope BC gives M. Trudeau a sound spanking….added bonus: making Ontario and Quebec wait til the votes are counted in BC til a party is declared victorious……a rarity but delicious just the same….

  5. Pedant says:

    FFS, Mainstreet’s new poll shows the Libs up by 1.

    The smooth-brained citizens of Canada are going to come through for the scumbag aren’t they? The trajectory is clear, the CPC hasn’t stopped the bleeding and if it keeps up, we’re looking at a Liberal majority 10 days from now.

    • A. Voter says:

      And today EKOS has the Liberals under 30 percent. Who knows what will happen.

      • Pedant says:

        Mainstreet now has Liberal +4.

        It’s going to be a Liberal majority.

        Canadians had better prepare, and those with talent had better plan an exit strategy. Trudeau is going to funnel massive amounts of wealth from people who work to people who don’t work.

  6. Leo Fleming says:

    See Nova Scotia. Liberals up by 20 points so they call an unnecessary early election. And Rankin was a whole hell of a lot more likeable than Trudeau.

  7. Derek Pearce says:

    I think it really depends on the 905. Tory votes are so concentrated in the Prairies that the CPC needs to be several points ahead of the Libs.

  8. J.Ph. Brunet says:

    First Ekos after the lone debate in the language of the majority of Canadians.
    Trudeau’s Gravel of the Bulge is over. Heading down again.
    The Few Democrats on an upswing, but even with that the Maxiecrats are now within 5 points of them.
    Tories have flattened their ten-day swoon.
    Greens & Bloc — who cares.
    Hmm.

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      JPB,

      Yup, that could be it.

    • Pedant says:

      Mainstreat has Libs +4 in post-debate poll.

      It’s going to be a Liberal majority.

      Canadians had better prepare. Baby Boomers will be the winners since the Liberals will continue funnelling wealth from younger workers to older rich people. Their entire housing plan is designed to do exactly that, and Trudeau’s debt means nothing to them since they won’t be the ones paying it down.

      Anyone under 50 with marketable skills and without inherited wealth would be a fool to stay in Canada amidst a housing bubble, spiking cost of living, spiking income taxes, and stagnant wages.

      When the Liberals win their majority, I suspect the post-mortem will show it to have been due to massive support in the 60+ demographic.

      • Walter says:

        I don’t think this prediction is that far fetched.

        1) Under a corrupt Wynne, Liberals got a majority.
        2) Under McGuinty Gas Plant scandal, Liberals only reduced to minority.
        3) During Adscam scandals, Liberals only reduced to miniorty.
        4) Under Mulroney corrutpion, Conservatives reduced to 2 seats.

        History shows that Conservatives punish leader who are not honest and who stray from party values – this will leak enough votes to the PPC to lose CPC dozens of seats. Meanwhile, Liberal voters have a long history of having no moral compass and will vote for their party no matter what.
        Liberals might wind up with a 31% majority.

  9. J.Ph. Brunet says:

    Looks like it’s how much the NDP hurts the LPC vs. how much the PPC hurts the CPC.

  10. Gilbert says:

    The Liberals are strong in the cities, but I doubt they’ll gain seats in Ontario and Quebec. A lot depends on turnout. Will supporters of the liberals be highly motivated to vote? Will the NDP and Greens take votes from the Liberals? We also have to consider the undecided vote and the days remaining until election day.

    • The Doctor says:

      One thing I wonder about is the “lack of enthusiasm” factor. I’ve never seen a federal campaign with so few lawn signs, so few flyers, so few canvassers, phone calls etc. I think the Liberals have wide support as usual, because they are the default voting choice for so many Canadians, but I wonder about the firmness of that support and the overall willingness of those supporters to actually cast a vote. Not the same thing, but a bit like what happened to the Democrats in the US in 2016 (e.g., a lot of Democrat supporters were not terribly enthusiastic about Hillary, while Republican supporters uniformly hated her guts, and that was reflected in voter turnout).

  11. Peter Williams says:

    Liberal speak: We’re not going to tax the sale of your house, we’ll tax the capital gains on the sale of your house.

    Or in NDP terms: we’ll tax the profit you make selling your house.

  12. Peter Williams says:

    Liberal candidate wants $300 to appear at an event during this election. Later retracted.

    https://www.thestar.com/amp/politics/federal-election/2021/09/10/liberal-candidate-apologizes-after-requesting-300-fee-to-appear-on-election-related-community-panel.html?

    Taking lessons from Justin?

  13. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    EKOS: Conservatives +3

    Mainstreet: Liberals +4

    Nanos: Liberals +4

    • Pedant says:

      Liberals are headed for a majority. It’s over. The Conservatives haven’t been able to stop their slide, it’s been constant drip drip drip for over two weeks. I see no catalyst to reverse this. Even JWR’s book launch next week won’t do it – voters’ eyes will glaze over.

      The new Trudeau majority will have disastrous consequences for the country.

  14. Walter says:

    Liberals will win the most seats.

    Even if they don’t, they will form coalition with NDP and/or Bloc. Trudeau cannot afford to have O’Toole win as all his corruption (WE, SNC, Winnipeg Lab, Covid Contracts, Vice Admiral Norman, etc.) will be revealed.

    After bribing NDP and Bloc to come on board – Trudeau will prorogue and step aside. It’s a repeat of the 2011 Ontario election.

  15. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Forum: Conservatives +3

    EKOS: Conservatives +1

  16. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    TeamCorruptionTM is getting even more desperate. Every successive declarative statement in those ads is a bigger lie than the previous one…

    Who I wonder would expect anything less from those people. After all, they’ve made political careers by laughing at us and playing us for complete fools. Guess what losers, it won’t work this time.

  17. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Meanwhile, Himself says he never, EVER, asked someone to lie. JWR begs to differ. So, normally it would be she said, he said and that would be the likely end of it.

    Except…inquiring minds want to know: what about those recorded telephone conversations? Hum.

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