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Brilliantly done. Kudos, HuffPo.

And why is this so important? Because her name is all that she had left.  By saying her name, by remembering her, we can – hopefully, maybe – ensure that something like this never, ever happens again.

 

 

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Have the hunted become the hunters?

This week, I spoke at a well-attended fundraiser for the Mississauga-Lakeshore federal Liberal association. Their impressive candidate Sven Spengemann was there, along with about 30 Grits. They were a great bunch – in part, because they didn’t throw any finger foods at me.

But there was another reason, too. They had that lean, hungry look about them – the look of political people who have grown tired of being the hunted, and were turning on the hunter.

Let us explain. For too long, progressives – and Liberals in particular – did not take Stephen Harper seriously. They underestimated him.

I cannot tell you how often I heard from Liberals – in 2005-6, 2008 and 2011 – that Stephen Harper was heading towards humiliating defeat. That he had a secret agenda to destroy Canada, and that he was going to lose because of it.

They’d say that Harper is a socially-conservative extremist who would ban abortion or gay marriage (he didn’t). Or that he would privatize health care and social programs (he didn’t). Or that he was a crypto-fascist with creepy eyes (he isn’t – and don’t be an idiot).

But Harper won the elections in each of those years. Creepy eyes notwithstanding, Harper’s political agenda wasn’t so secret – it was, in fact, right out there in the open, easily seen. It had two parts.

One, bring together the warring factions in the Reform Party and the Progressive Conservatives, and create a single, winning conservative force. He did that.

Two, drive the Liberal Party out of existence – with election law changes, with wedge politics, with whatever it takes.

But he didn’t do that.

The good Grits in Mississauga-Lakeshore are living proof. For one thing, they are still there, united, and election-ready. I therefore fully expect Spengemann will roll over the do-nothing Conservative MP who currently holds the riding.

For another, I didn’t detect the faintest whiff of arrogance or contempt in the hall at the beautiful Holcim Waterfront Estate. That is, none of them underestimate Stephen Harper’s political cunning. None of them hated him.

Liberals, instead, have acquired a grudging respect for Harper’s political skills. They have learned, the hard way, that you underestimate Stephen Harper at your peril.

And, as such, they are no longer the prey. They instead have Harper in their sights – and they had plenty of questions for me about what makes Harper tick, and what he is likely to do in the coming months.

For Harper, the weeks and months ahead loom large. For him, there is history to be made.

As my colleague David Akin has noted, Harper has – as of today – become the sixth longest-serving Prime Minister. As of today, he has surpassed Brian Mulroney’s tenure. If he makes it to the Spring of 2016, he will have bested the record of my former boss Jean Chretien – and become the fifth longest-serving Prime Minister.

Will he make it? Will he win the election that is supposed to happen in October 2015, but could come much sooner than that?

No one knows. But one thing is certain: the smart Liberals in places like Mississauga-Lakeshore don’t underestimate Stephen Harper. And they don’t hate him, either – they respect his smarts, as you should respect any political adversary who has survived for this long.

This much will become known, too: the Liberals, for so long the hunted, are now turning on the hunter.

And Stephen Harper shouldn’t underestimate them.

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Twelve years is a good long run.  He’d be a huge asset as Trudeau candidate.

Who think he’ll go federal?

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“There is nothing new or even original about this spread. Renowned French photographer Jean-Paul Goude just dug into his archives, pulled out some of his old favorites and recreated them with reality TV’s reigning It Girl. That’s it. At best, these pictures are recycled art, and at worst, they are lazy sensationalism — but innovative they are not.“

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This notwithstanding, I still don’t think so.

I will, however, be talking about this stuff tonight. Come!

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Justin Trudeau remains the man to beat. Like it or not, it’s a fact.

Herewith, ten reasons why:

1. Liberals lead: Lately, Stephen Harper has performed well. On ISIS, on the attacks on the CAF, on the improving economy: he has looked Prime Ministerial. But polling averages don’t lie. Even now, the Liberals remain ahead of the ruling Conservatives. And in the past two years, Trudeau’s party has bested Harper’s in virtually every single poll.
2. Trudeau wins: In all but a handful of surveys since he has become Liberal Party leader, Trudeau has been Canadians’ clear choice for Prime Minister. In some cases, he has bested Harper by as much as two-to-one. He is no flash in the proverbial pan. “Trudeau is for real,” says Ipsos’ Darrell Bricker.
3. Harper, Mulcair lose: An average of recent polls conducted by analyst Eric Grenier suggests “about 17 per cent of Canadians would select the NDP leader, compared to 28 per cent for Harper and 31 per cent for Trudeau.” Given the fact that the Liberal Party was reduced to third party status less than four years ago – given how an experienced incumbent Prime Minister always should be doing against a rookie Liberal leader – that is extraordinary.
4. Ad fail: The Tories continue to fight old wars. As with Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff, the Tories have spent millions on familiar-looking attack ads that sought to define Trudeau before he could define himself. They haven’t worked. Abacus Data says less than one in five younger Canadian believe Trudeau’s “in over his head.” Among older Canadians, it’s only one in three.
5. Surplus not news: Everyone has known that the feds have been in a structural surplus since last year. The Tories’ plans to trumpet this achievement, in coming months, is unlikely to reverse the downward arc of public opinion.
6. NDP fading: Tom Mulcair, says Brian Mulroney, is “the best Opposition leader since Diefenbaker.” The Parliamentary Press Gallery generally agree. But as Mulroney himself knows, the Commons is irrelevant to most Canadians. They see it as what is wrong with democracy, not what is right. In B.C., in Ontario, in the Atlantic provinces, nationally: the NDP brand is fading. And Tom Mulcair is no Jack Layton.
7. Change chosen: A recent Ipsos poll confirmed that the Grits lead the Tories by almost ten percentage points. But, most significantly, the desire for change is immense. “Only one in three voters, “noted Ipsos, “believe the Harper government has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected, while 67 per cent believe that it is time for another party to take over.” Justin Trudeau is, overwhelmingly, the agent of the desired change.
8. Money matters: For years, the Conservative Party has dominated political fundraising. They adapted, first and best, to changes ushered in by former Prime Minister Jean Chretien to clean up fundraising. But the Trudeau Liberals are catching up. By Summer’s end, the Grits’ 2014 haul was $3.7 million to the Tories’ $4.5 million. But a Maclean’s analysis found “the Liberals made significant gains in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia” – all provinces where the Conservatives have had fundraising strength.
9. Scandal scars: The cumulative effect of serial scandals – Duffy, Brazeau, Wallin, robocalls – has not been calamitous to the Conservatives’ fortunes. Scandals seldom are. But there is plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest that the ethical missteps are sapping both morale and popularity. With the Duffy trial slated to begin soon, this will only get worse.
10. War: On Remembrance Day of all days, we remember fallen heroes – but also that wars, while popular at the outset, are often far less so at the end. As the international effort against ISIS grinds on, will as many Canadians support it? Unlikely.

Could things change? Of course. But for now – as before – Justin Trudeau is on track to win.

 

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