Here’s a shot of PV’s Sam Fryer and me at Grove Fest yesterday. Interesting shirt he’s wearing, there.

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…which is kind of cool, because my Brother of Another Mother Bernie Farber and I raised some money for Maccabi a few weeks ago in Ottawa, to help with travel to Israel.

Kind of wish I was going on to Israel with them. They all look so happy and excited.

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“Hell,” W.C. Fields once said, “I never vote for anybody. I always vote against.”

Fields, the legendary comedian and misanthropist, wasn’t talking about Canadian byelections, but he may as well have been. His line neatly summarizes how most folks approach byelections in Canada — or “special elections,” as they call them down south.

Joe and Jane Frontporch, in their wisdom, do not regard byelections (or even elections) as in any way special. Declining voting rates testify to this sad fact. More and more, folks don’t show up to vote — and those who do, more often than not, have an axe or two to grind.

That’s why ideologues — on both the outer reaches of the left and the right — tend to do better in byelections. If Joe and Jane Frontporch are simply showing up to oppose something, or because they’re in an elevated state of irritation, then it is only logical that governments so often get their keesters kicked in byelections.

Kathleen Wynne knows this. Last Thursday, Wynne’s Liberals were utterly crushed in ridings that had been Grit strongholds for a generation. In byelections in places like Windsor-Tecumseh and London West, for instance — previously held by long-serving ministers of finance and justice, respectively — the ruling party actually came third, after the New Democrats and the Conservatives. (Meanwhile, the Grits won big in Ottawa South — but only because the riding’s departed MPP, Dalton McGuinty, isn’t nearly as disliked as some would have us believe.)

Now, the Grits’ losses will raise questions about the suitability of Wynne’s handpicked candidates in Windsor and London, and the strategies of her strategists — as they should.

But, on balance, the five Ontario byelections mostly provided grumpy voters with an opportunity to beat the Ontario Liberals like a pinata. And, in so doing, possibly set the stage for another Liberal win in the fall of 2013 or the spring of 2014.

That may sound far-fetched, but Stephen Harper and Christy Clark wouldn’t think so. They know byelections plant seeds out of which general election victories are often grown. They’re a release valve.

Harper’s got byelections coming up in Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba — to replace Liberals Denis Coderre and Bob Rae, and Conservative Vic Toews, respectively. He doesn’t stand a chance in the first two, and in Toews’ old seat, Provencher — which has gone back and forth between Grits and Tories since Confederation — I wager a Conservative win won’t be as easy as it once was. But I’ll also bet that Harper isn’t losing any sleep over it. That’s because Harper, like all old pros, knows that byelections are a constitutionally mandated opportunity for people to vent their spleens, but not much else. The day after his party was humiliated by the Liberals in a Labrador byelection, Harper shrugged and went back to work.

Before that, in the 40th Parliament, Harper didn’t win in byelections in places like Winnipeg North or Hochelaga or New Westminster-Coquitlam, either. But he still went on to achieve a majority in the general election that came shortly afterwards, didn’t he? Yes, he did.

Byelections are a big deal to the chattering classes. The media (because they are easily bored) and the political classes (because they are emotionally disturbed) go on and on and on about the cosmic significance of byelections. But there isn’t any, really. Few folks show up to participate in ’em, and nobody remembers ’em a week later.

Still disbelieving? Take B.C. as an example, then. Between 2001 and now, the B.C. Liberals lost every single byelection to the NDP — with the exception of one candidate. Who? If you guessed Christy Clark, give yourself a gold star. Clark defied the byelection conventional wisdom not once, but twice. (The NDP should have pondered the general election implications of that, but clearly didn’t.)

Byelections? They’re a lot of fun to write about, and prognosticate about, but in the grand scheme of things they don’t amount to a hill of beans.

If W.C. was still around, you could ask him — they’re just an opportunity to vote against.

Not for.

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…accompanied by some old punk from Calgary!

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…about their gas plant “scandal.” Do these guys ever get tired of getting kicked in the head?

In a setback to Progressive Conservative attempts to turn up the heat in the gas plant scandal, Ontario’s integrity watchdog has refused to probe alleged Liberal attempts to intimidate the speaker of the legislature.

Tory MPP Vic Fedeli had asked Integrity Commissioner Lynn Morrison to investigate emails sent by senior “operatives” to then premier Dalton McGuinty pushing for Speaker Dave Levac to reverse a ruling which they feared would precipitate an election in the fall of 2012.

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In the Sun, folks. The Sun. Quote:

TORONTO – Toronto Police were asking Mayor Rob Ford’s ex-staff questions about the mayor in the wake of the Project Traveller raids, the Toronto Sun has learned.

At least one former member of the mayor’s office staff was interviewed by police after the June 13 guns and drugs sweep that focused on a Dixon Rd. neighbourhood in north Etobicoke.

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Quote:

At a Friday news conference, Ms. Wynne blamed her party’s poor showing on Mr. McGuinty…”Some of the political management of that issue was not what I would have wanted it to be, and in fact was the opposite of what my approach would be.”

I cannot believe what I just read.

Is this accurate?

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It’s superficial, of course, to always declare political “winners” and “losers” the morning after.  But people (me included) like to do it.  It’s fun. And, in electoral terms, the fact is that there always are winners and losers.

Except last night in Ontario was more like the Olympics, to me.  Everyone won a little bit, and most everyone (with one big exception) lost something, too.  So here’s my Olympian take: gold, silver and bronze – plus a citation for two guys (and a polling firm) who won and lost, all in the same news cycle.

 

GOLD

Andrea Horwath: I’ve been saying for months that the Ontario NDP leader is the person most likely to be elected the next Premier, and last night all of Ontario got to see why.

She didn’t just win in Windsor-Tecumseh, a safe Liberal seat for many, many years: she massacred the Grits and the PCs, taking nearly 62 per cent of the vote – while the Grits received a paltry 11 per cent.  Same in London-West: the PCs had been so certain of winning, they actually sent Tim Hudak there to give a victory speech.

To Hudak’s shock, and the Liberal’s great surprise, Horwath’s candidate received 42 per cent of the vote – while the Grit’s “star” candidate barely got his deposit back, at 15 per cent. London-West, too, had been a Liberal stronghold – and it, too, had been previously held by a Liberal cabinet minister.  The magnitude of the NDP wins in those two previously-Liberal seats means that they will remain in the NDP column for a long time, perhaps for good.  Elsewhere, Horwath has reason to be happy.  In Scarborough-Guildwood, where the chattering classes had expected her candidate to be humiliated, she very nearly tied the second-place PCs.

Horwath is the most popular politician in the province.  She has a capable, underestimated staff.  And she has not been hurt by her walk-softly-and-carry-a-big-stick strategy of recent months.  She is the gold medallist coming out of last night.

John Fraser and the McGuintys:  I bet Sun News’ Brian Lilley a dollar, on-air, that John – Dalton McGuinty’s right-hand man in Ottawa South for more than a decade – would beat back a competent Ontario PC challenger.  And he did.  I also said, over and over, that the gas plant issue would not hurt John in that riding – because (a) the gas plant “scandal” mostly isn’t one, to most regular people, and (b) the McGuinty name is still a good one.  And people feel that family have done lots of good, in Ottawa South and beyond.

Some will suggest that John won despite Dalton, and not because of him.  But the McGuintys, and their formidable machine, were all over the Ottawa South by-election, every single day, knocking on doors and making calls.  And John – because he is an honest and decent guy – never hid the fact that he worked for Dalton McGuinty for years.  He was proud of it.

Last night’s outcome in Ottawa South wasn’t a huge win for the Office of the Premier (they had actually been campaigning in London-West and Etobicoke Lakeshore, this week, not Ottawa South).  It is a huge win – a gold medal! – for John Fraser and the McGuintys.  And it strongly suggests that the McGuinty-hating gas plant scandalmongering – by kooky Cavoukian, by partisan media, by the PCs – simply hasn’t worked.  If that issue had had any traction at all, it should have had traction in Ottawa South.

It didn’t.

 

SILVER

Kathleen Wynne:  The honeymooon, which was an enduring one, is decidedly over.  Overall, Wynne’s vote tally dropped by more than 50,000, or almost 20 per cent.  Her personally handpicked star candidate in London-West wasn’t just beaten, he was eviscerated.  And plenty of Liberals are recalling, this morning, the old political adage: if the choice is the real New Democrat, or the pretend one, the real one will always win.

Wynne needs a Liberal economic narrative: presently, she doesn’t have one that I can see.  She needs to reassess her key strategists: after last night, it is clear that the decision to push out the McGuinty election readiness team (who won big in 2003, 2007 and 2011) was a big mistake.  And she needs to understand that making nice with the NDP, and giving Horwath everything she wanted (and then some), will always result in the NDP eating her lunch.

That said, many Liberals told me they were expecting to lose all but one – or all – of the five by-elections.  Wynne’s been given some breathing room, but not much.  She is a good person, and she’s a fighter.  She needs to get ready to fight the toughest campaign of her life, starting right now.

 

BRONZE

Tim Hudak:  Most of all, he needed to win in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, and he did that.  But he also needed to win in London-West and Ottawa South, and that he did not do.

His problem is that voters just don’t like him, and Hudak doesn’t know how to fix that.  His party’s problem is that there is no solution to the Hudak dilemma: apart from open insurrection, they have no mechanism to get rid of the most unpopular PC leader Ontario has seen in decades.  So they’re stuck with each other.

Against Horwath, he is toast.  He accordingly needs to drop the gas plant scandal hysteria, and start talking about his positive economic vision for the province.  He needs to borrow some of Harper’s smart strategists in Ottawa.  And he needs to step back a bit, and better promote his team (because some of caucus and candidates are impressive).

Will he do it?  I doubt it.  It’s not in his genetic structure. So, late last night, I was hearing from Conservatives that Hudak’s back to bitterly blaming organized labour for his losses.

Hey, Tim?  You and your staff need to take a hard look in the mirror: there’s your problem, big guy.

 

WINNERS AND LOSERS

Rob and Doug Ford: Late last night, everyone was crediting them for the win in Etobicoke-Lakeshore.  It was a big win – the first PC victory in Toronto since 1999 – and the Fords were revelling in the fact that they, and not Tim Hudak, were getting all the high-fives.

And then, two hours later, the crack video story was back with a vengeance, all over the front page of the Toronto Star.  The video is real, and the story isn’t going away.  Their nightmare isn’t over yet, not by a long shot.

Congrats and condolences, brothers Ford.  May your misery be long and deep.

Forum Research: They got it all wrong, again.  That’s the bad news.  The good news?  The Star will continue to use their stuff, uncritically.

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Quote:

“A Crown attorney on the Project Traveller case, Paul Renwick, would not answer questions.

Daniel Brown, Siad’s lawyer, said in an email that ethical and professional obligations prevent him from speaking about anything he may have learned during his time as counsel. “Likewise, my conversations with prosecutors about any of my clients would be protected by the same solicitor-client privilege.”

“Unlike myself, the Toronto Police are not bound by privilege and would be in the best position to answer questions about what evidence is in their possession,” Brown said.

Brown also noted that while he is still the counsel of record for Siad, he is planning to make an application to remove himself from the case, for unspecified reasons.”

There is a thing called Crown Disclosure. The Crown Disclosure rule is that Crown must disclose all material information that is in its possession or control, even if the evidence isn’t going to be called at trial or is inculpatory or exculpatory.

Here’s what I know:

• Siad possessed the video.
• The police got the video when they arrested him, using a search warrant.
• The Crown office was then given the video.
• The Crown disclosed the video to lawyer Brown. He has it.

Will the video come out anytime soon? I don’t know.

But what I do know is this: the video is in the hands of many people, now. And it has been seen by many more. And it shows Rob Ford smoking what appears to be crack cocaine.

It is real.

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Horwath’s looking like tonight’s big (surprise) winner. Wow.

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