09.26.2017 06:35 AM

Premier popularity, parsed 

From Reid. No big changes, really – which is good news for some, and bad news for others. Comments open. 

10 Comments

  1. Pedant says:

    Wynne : I thought she might have a rebound after the new housing policies introduced in April (improved rent controls, etc) as well as the amended labour laws that require 3 paid weeks vacation after 5 years of service to a company. But it seems Ontarians are steadfast in their desire to see the Liberals out. How close to the election do we need to be to declare a point of no return? Campaigns matter but this one may only matter in determining whether Premier Brown has a majority or a minority.

    Horgan : He is waffling on his populist campaign promises to rein in real estate speculation and foreign money-laundering via the housing market. Exasperation with the housing bubble and the perception that Christy Clark was a puppet for RE developers is what allowed him to get the necessary votes in the GVR and LM to squeak past the BC Liberals. If he renegs, just watch that popularity come crashing down to earth. Were that to happen, BC politics could be reshuffled such that both the Greens and the BC Conservatives could see significant gains.

    • Pedant says:

      Sorry, there’s an error in my comments above. The BC NDP actually didn’t squeak past the BC Libs overall (it was vice versa, with the Libs besting the NDP province-wide by 1,566 votes), but it was their better-than-expected strength in the GVR and LM that just barely denied the Libs a majority and allowed for the coalition government now in place.

  2. BlueGritr says:

    No surprise that Wynne’s up two points: Ontario economy is chugging along, and voters are starting to see that Patrick Brown is not up for the job. Expecting to see Wynne’s numbers (and the party’s polling) to continue to improve as we get closer to the vote next spring.

    • Terry says:

      Haha. Yes, 2%. Huge move. Is that even outside the margin of error? Wynne has been frantically lurching around the province, spending our money like a drunken premier, and her popularity hasn’t budged. I believe, and fervently hope, she’s toast.

  3. Miles Lunn says:

    A couple observations.

    1. While Horgan’s numbers may seem good, remember Notley, Pallister, and Ball were all north of 50% when first elected so he has far less room for error. If he governs like others his won’t look so good next year. Off course maybe with this in mind he will be more cautious, only time will tell.

    2. Gallant and Couillard who face the electorate in about a year are up and their approval ratings are similar to what both McNeil and Clark were this past spring and both of those two were right on the minority/majority line with Clark just missing it and McNeil just crossing. The good news for Couillard and Gallant is unlike in BC, I doubt the opposition will gang up to knock them out so as long as they win the most seats they are safe. For Wynne, her numbers are similar to Selinger in the fall of 2015 and we all saw what happened to him so with just over 8 months left, time is running out and unless there is a dramatic jump I cannot see how she can get back in with those type of numbers.

    • BlueGritr says:

      Wynne’s facing a hesitant Patrick Brown: that’s how she’s going to return to power (minority government).

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      Miles,

      I’m with you on Wynne. If progressives gel and vote NDP, Horwath is the next premier. If they stay home or split the vote, Brown gets in.

      • Miles Lunn says:

        True enough although I think with progressive government federally and one provincially I don’t think most mind a conservative one provincially as long as they are moderate. Ontario is more of a centrist than left wing province so parties on the right do win from time to time.

  4. Charlie says:

    I see Pallister’s self inflicted wounds are starting to show.

  5. Michael Bluth says:

    Notley is toast. Came into office in 2015 offering to balance the budget by 2019. Now her plan is to balance the budget in 2023?

    She only won because of the split on the right in Alberta. The conservatives in Alberta pick their new leader October 28th. That’s when the countdown to the next election and a new premier begins.

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