Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats.

SWOT, it’s called, in corporate strategy sessions. What are our internal strengths and weaknesses? What are the external opportunities and threats?

In the federal general election campaign that gets underway today, you can be certain that the three main Canadian political parties have already done a SWOT, or something approximating it. It’s the kind of analysis that determines ad buy, debate strategy, messages, you name it. It’s important.

Here, then, is the SWOT for the 2025 election campaign. Clip and save.

STRENGTHS: The Mark Carney Liberals are winning. Their main internal strength, to the surprise of many, is Mark Carney. He may have the pedigree of a bland, boring banker, but the newly-selected Liberal leader has turned all that into a strength: at a time when the despised-by-Canadians Donald Trump is causing instability and uncertainty everywhere, Carney projects calm and predictability. Female voters, in particular, like him.

Carney has also been willing to take political risks. Going for a skate with the Edmonton Oilers could have been a disaster, if Carney had slipped and fallen on his keister – à la Tory leader Robert Stanfield and the infamous football fumble. Carney didn’t, and he won an approving quote from team captain Conor “Jesus” McDavid.

Pierre Poilievre, meanwhile, has strengths of his own. He’s got more candidates, more money, and more organizational muscle. He’s a highly disciplined politician, and has been getting himself ready for this moment for his entire life. With the exception of the Mango Mussolini and climate change, his priorities match those of most Canadians.

Jagmeet Singh? He, um, is good at TikTok.

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This is unexpected. Wish my folks were still here to see it.

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What are they really like?

When you are a political staffer – like this writer was, back in the Palaeolithic Era – you get that question a lot. People find out that you work for a notable politician, and they want to know the real deal: what is he/she like when the microphones and cameras are tucked away?

Mark Carney first.

On Monday, the newly-minted Liberal leader was asked totally legitimate questions about his “blind trust” by the CBC’s Rosemary Barton and the Globe’s Stephanie Levitz. Barton and Levitz essentially wanted to know why Carney didn’t disclose his financial holdings when he could have.

Levitz went first, querying Carney about the whereabouts of his millions. Carney’s response: “What possible conflict would you have, Stephanie?…Point final.”

Get that? “Point final.” That’s kind of the English equivalent of saying, in French, “This discussion is over, child.”

Barton wasn’t deterred by that. She said it “was very difficult to believe” Carney could have no possible conflicts of interest. At that point, Carney’s patrician mask fully slipped. “Look inside yourself, Rosemary,” he actually said. You are “trying to invent new rules,” he snapped at her. You are acting with “ill will,” he barked at the CBC veteran broadcaster.

Well, no. She was just doing her job. But in those few seconds, Carney revealed himself to be arrogant, pompous, evasive and condescending. He looked terrible; all that was missing was him gnawing at an apple.

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Justin Trudeau – finally, blessedly – is gone.

Mark Carney, the charisma-free zone who takes showers in three-piece suits, is the Selected Prime Minister. The polls suggest he could soon become the Elected Prime Minister. So, is Pierre Poilievre toast? Could he still win?

No, he’s not toast. Yes, he could still win. Ten reasons.

1. Poilievre has lots of money. In 2024, his Conservatives raised $41.8 million. That’s just about double what the Liberals and the New Democrats raised – put together. The year before, 2022, Poilievre had another record-smashing year, and raised $35 million – more than doubling what the Liberals raised. Now, money doesn’t always guarantee wins – recall the fates of billionaires like Ross Perot and Pete DuPont, for example – but the absence of money always guarantees defeats. Money buys ads.

2. Poilievre has organizational strength. Money alone doesn’t win elections – people do. And, right now, Poilievre has many more candidates nominated than his opponents. And, critically, he has a Tory-blue army on the ground, from sea to sea to sea. The Liberals, meanwhile, have entire ridings that exist in name only – they are effectively political ghost towns. To win, you need people to knock on doors, put up signs, and get out the vote. Poilievre has that.

3. Poilievre has a disciplined team. In 2015, Stephen Harper lost because of lack of discipline – substituting a focus on the economy for scaremongering about veils. His successors lost, in 2019 and 2021, because of lack of message discipline, too – Erin O’Toole embracing a carbon tax, Andrew Scheer allying himself with social conservative causes. This time around, Poilievre and his team have run a much tighter ship: there have been no big verbal missteps about abortion, equal marriage or other policy Vietnams. Voters have noticed.

4. Poilievre sticks to his key messages. When hunting bear, the legendary Romeo LeBlanc once said to this writer, don’t get distracted by rabbit tracks. Poilievre didn’t and doesn’t. After becoming leader in 2022, the Ottawa-area MP maintained a laser-like focus on pocketbook issues, and mostly stayed away from everything else. The top issue for voters was cost-of-living, too. It worked.

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