#LavScam fallout: governments defeat themselves

— 04.29.2019 07:23 AM

Three quick takeaways:

  1. LavScam has shredded the Trudeau government brand.  When Trudeau is his government’s brand, that’s a big problem. (For him.)
  2. Scheer and Singh played LavScam right.  They remembered that, when your opponent is destroying himself, don’t interrupt him.
  3. That “doing worse” number is brutal.

This:

A new poll conducted by Leger for The Canadian Press suggests the governing federal Liberals have lost ground to the Conservatives over the past month.

Overall, 31 per cent of respondents polled after the federal budget was released Tuesday said they would vote for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if an election were held now, a decline of about three percentage points from February.

That compared with 37 per cent who said they would back the Conservatives under leader Andrew Scheer, a one-point increase from February, while 12 per cent said they would vote NDP and eight per cent the Greens.

Scheer also jumped ahead of Trudeau on the question of who would make a better prime minister as the Tory leader got the backing of 25 per cent of respondents compared with 24 per cent for Trudeau, who has been struggling to contain damage from the SNC-Lavalin affair.

As for the budget, which the Liberals are hoping will help turn the page on SNC-Lavalin, 12 per cent of respondents said it was good and 19 per cent that it was bad, but 39 per cent said they didn’t really know about it.

And this:

OTTAWA — A new online poll conducted by Leger for The Canadian Press suggests the Trudeau Liberals haven’t convinced Canadians the country is doing better under their stewardship.

In all 46 per cent of respondents said Canada is doing worse since Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government was elected in 2015, while only 22 per cent believed the country is doing better and 27 per cent said things are the same.

Leger’s executive vice-president Christian Bourque said these numbers come despite economic indicators showing the country’s economy is performing better than in 2015.

Regional concerns particularly in Western Canada over the state of the oil and gas industry, are affecting the way voters are viewing the overall state of the country, Bourque said.

“In Alberta, for example, we see that 59 per cent of people believe Canada is doing worse, so there are regional issues affecting that overall number, but it is quite staggering,” Leger said.

Leger’s internet-based survey was conducted using computer-assisted web interviewing technology from Feb. 15 to 19. It heard from 1,529 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, who have the right to vote in Canada and were randomly recruited from the firm’s online panel.

 


Comments (14)

100 days of #LavScam: Trudeau has defeated himself

— 04.29.2019 06:36 AM

One hundred days.

 

A lot can happen in 100 days.  Because, per the saying, a week can be a lifetime in politics.

 

One hundred or so days ago, Justin Trudeau fired Jody Wilson-Raybould.  One hundred days ago, the Liberal leader – the one who claimed to be feminist, the one who declared himself the champion of indigenous causes, and the ethical epitome – terminated Wilson-Raybould because she refused to do what he wanted her to.

 

Because she – a proud, smart, courageous indigenous woman – refused to interfere in the criminal prosecution of a sleazy Quebec company facing innumerable corruption charges.  Because she had the guts and the principles to say “no” to a bunch of men who wouldn’t take no for an answer.

 

In the 100 days that have gone by since January 14, 2019, everything has changed.  The guaranteed second Trudeau majority?  Gone.  Polls now say Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives are ahead – or way ahead.  Trudeau, meanwhile, is viscerally disliked pretty much everywhere outside of Quebec.

 

Hell, in Prince Edward Island’s just-finished election, Liberals told Trudeau to stay away, because his very name was dragging them down. The PEI Grits still finished a distant third, a rump, behind the Tories – and the Greens!

 

Out in Alberta, most observers agree that Jason Kenney won a majority – and Rachel Notley lost a majority – because the latter leader had gotten too close to Trudeau.  And because the former leader had done all he could to associate Notley with Trudeau.  (It worked.)

 

In the hundred days since Justin Trudeau politically lynched Jody Wilson-Raybould, plenty of other things have happened, too.

 

  • The Globe and Mail published a series of stories detailing Trudeau’s apparent efforts to obstruct justice to help out SBC-Lavalin.  Trudeau called the stories fake.  But all of the Globe’s stories turned out to be true.  Every word.
  • Trudeau insisted he didn’t fire Wilson-Raybould from the job she loved – from the job she was great at.  He said her continued presence in cabinet was proof.  A day later, Wilson-Raybould quit his cabinet.
  • The clowns on the Justice Committee refused to let Wilson-Raybould testify about LavScam.  After a tsunami of political blowback, they reversed themselves.  
  • But the committee’s Liberal trained seals – and Trudeau – refused to let Wilson-Raybould testify about what Trudeau said and did after that fateful cabinet shuffle.  When, sources tell me, Trudeau threatened recriminations, and promised rewards, when he spoke to his former Minister of Justice.
  • Trudeau’s best friend and principal secretary – and the Clerk of his Privy Council – are both implicated in the metastasizing LavScam scandal.  Both insisted they did nothing wrong.  But both abruptly resigned.
  • The Liberals defeated each and every Opposition attempt to get the truth.  At the Ethics Committee, in the Justice Committee, in the House of Commons: in vote after vote, the panicked Grits continued to coverup.  They continued to stonewall.
  • PMO trotted out obscure Liberal backbenchers and banshees to defame and demean Jody Wilson-Raybould and her ally, Jane Philpott – who had resigned cabinet because she could no longer go along with the Trudeaupian sleaze.  One PMO attack poodle, Sheila Copps, actually calls Wilson-Raybould and Philpott pus-filled “boils.”

 

And on, and on. A hundred days later – a hundred days after he made the insane decision to martyr Jody Wilson-Raybould – pollsters say Justin Trudeau is heading towards inevitable defeat.

 

Of Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott?  The other parties are trying convince the pair to run for them.

 

Jody, polls say, is believed and supported by the vast majority of Canadians.  

 

And, one hundred fateful days later, Justin just isn’t.

 


Comments (6)

Go, Joe, go!

— 04.25.2019 07:12 AM

So, I’m going to be volunteering for the Democrats again this Summer.  And this is the candidate I’m going to be supporting, too.

Why Joe Biden?

I’m aware of his shortcomings.  Every candidate has ’em.  He’s one of the oldest presidential candidates in history.  He makes gaffes.  He’s been a bit too mano-a-mano in the past.  He’s run twice before, and lost.

But here are the five reasons why he’s still my guy.

  1. This is all about who can beat Trump.  He can.  Joe is tough, he’s experienced, and – as his campaign announcement video this morning makes plain – he is getting into this race for the best reason of all: to beat that sonofabitch who cheated his way into the White House.  And successive polls have shown that Americans know who Joe is, they like who he is, and they like him way more than Trump.
  2. Joe Biden has what it takes to win.  He never forgot his Scanton, Pa. roots, and he has the working class support to show for it.  He is loved by African-Americans for his unflagging support for Barack Obama.  He has stayed in the political centre, where most of the votes are.  Independents like him the best. He knows how to get things done in Washington, because he has experience – and he knows how to work with Republicans, too.  He’s the guy who can bring together the winning coalition.
  3. The United States is still the United States. If 2016 showed those of us who worked for Hillary Clinton anything, it’s this:  the United States of America is still a pretty racist and sexist place.  In 2016, I was so proud to work for an amazing, progressive, capable woman – but America (including American women) rejected her, in large part, because she was female.  To beat Trump in 2020, we need to campaign in the United States that exists, not the United States that doesn’t.
  4. Traditional assumptions about politics are gone.  If 2016 taught me anything else, it’s also this: everything is different, now.  Hillary had the best-organized, best-funded, best-staffed, best-led campaign I have ever been part of.  But it still didn’t matter: we still lost.  Politics has been upended, everywhere.  So, traditional assumptions about campaigns – whether Joe is too old, too politically-incorrect, too centrist – are kind of irrelevant, now.  Trump showed that.  Running the 2016 campaign again will get us the 2016 result.
  5. Again, with feeling: it’s all about beating Trump.  I don’t give a good goddamn if Joe Biden comes from Mars and eats green cheese on prime time TV: he is the only candidate who can beat that bastard.  The only one.  And, with a running mate like Harris or O’Rourke, he addresses any of his perceived weaknesses, and then some.

Joe Biden for the win.  Because we have to win.


Comments (54)

PEI politics

— 04.24.2019 08:27 AM

I was at the Raptors game last night when this result came in.  It was a shocker.  Three reasons.

  1. Once again, plenty of pollsters missed out on a sizeable Conservative vote.  (Federally, reliable pollsters tell me the same thing: Andrew Scheer – who was at the Raptors game and was cheered – is ahead by five points.)
  2. The Green Party has become a big factor – and, like the New Democrats (who were shut out in PEI), they steal votes from Justin Trudeau, not the aforementioned Andrew Scheer.
  3. There are just two Liberal Premier left.  The one in PEI couldn’t even hold his seat last night.  Change, methinks, is coming.


Comments (17)

#LavScam #LawScam #LibScam: thanks for your donation

— 04.24.2019 07:36 AM

Jody Wilson-Raybould worked to clean up the legal system.  Justin Trudeau and his PMO cabal work to dirty it.

Have these guys learned nothing from Lavscam?  Have they not considered the implications of dragging our system of justice through the muck?  Do any of them understand why the law needs to above grubby, secretive partisan deal-making?

Apparently not. Check out this blockbuster in the Globe and Mail:

The Prime Minister’s Office is using a private party database called Liberalist in its background checks on candidates for judicial appointments, a tool that allows them to see whether would-be judges have supported the Liberal Party in recent years, records show.

The Liberal Party designed the database to be used for partisan purposes, such as helping Liberal candidates track and reach their supporters during election campaigns.

However, confidential documents obtained by The Globe and Mail show the PMO’s appointments branch is also using it to look into the partisan background of applicants for judicial positions. The documents, which were provided by a source, were produced by the PMO and show the results of database checks on judicial applicants. Liberalist is the only one of the databases that is not accessible to the public.

As justice minister, Jody Wilson-Raybould modified the process under which the federal government appoints judges to superior and federal courts in 2016, promising to increase the “openness, transparency, accountability and diversity of Canada’s judiciary.” In particular, the reforms gave greater independence to the seven-member judicial advisory committees (JAC) that evaluate the candidates for appointments.

However, sources said the process still includes a role for the PMO in vetting candidates further. The records show the PMO used Liberalist to evaluate candidates who had gone through the JAC process.

Of the donations made by these judges, $321,650.58, or 90.9 per cent of the total amount, was directed to the Liberal Party.


Comments (27)

How Trudeau elected Kenney

— 04.23.2019 06:42 AM

Last month, I was back home in Calgary to teach at the law school. So, I got together with a couple high school buddies – one a lawyer, one an engineer – at Michael’s on Tenth Avenue. (Michael’s has the best pizza in Canada, by the way. Hands down.)

We got to talking about the coming Alberta election, and what was going to happen. Some people at neighbouring tables chimed in. (Calgary’s like that.)

Here’s a summary of what I was told:

• they all respected Rachel Notley but disliked her party
• they didn’t really like Jason Kenney but figured they’d vote for his party
• they thought the rest of Canada didn’t give a shit about them
• they deeply hated Justin Trudeau

And when I say “deeply,” I mean deeply. One of my fellow Michael’s fans even suggested that it would be a bad idea for Trudeau to travel to Alberta. Because he might be placed at physical risk.

Seriously.

The conversation continued. My lawyer buddy, who works at a major construction and engineering firm, was unhappy about Trudeau’s slavish devotion to the fortunes of the oily Quebec-based construction and engineering firm, SNC-Lavalin. He looked at me.

“You know, Winkie,” he said, using the nickname my Calgary pals gave to me way back when, “My firm had to lay off more than a thousand guys last year. No one back East noticed. No one. If that had happened to SNC-Lavalin, it would’ve been all you’d hear about.”

He was right, of course. Albertans are right: if something bad happens in the Centre of the Universe, in the Montreal-Ottawa-Toronto axis, the whole country hears about it for weeks. But if hundreds of families lose their livelihood in Calgary, nobody in Ontario gives a shit, basically. Certainly not Justin Trudeau, who has repeatedly claimed to support Alberta – and then repeatedly done precisely nothing to help Alberta get oil to market.

I later tweeted what my friend said about those layoffs, and Ontario and Quebec’s total indifference to same. Jason Kenney was one of the many who retweeted what I said. It struck a chord.

And that, really, is mainly why Jason Kenney swept the much-admired Rachel Notley from power. Because Justin Trudeau and his government are now more despised in Alberta than was Trudeau’s father’s government, way back during the nadir of the National Energy Program. And Notley is seen, in Alberta, as having letting Trudeau get away with murder. The murder of Alberta’s economy.

Other factors were at play in last Tuesday’s night vote, of course. In politics, there always are. Jason Kenney brought together the warring factions of the Right, and avoided the vote-splits that helped Notley’s Crüe sweep to power four years ago. And, while the NDP leader was herself admired, her caucus generally was not. Notley had a Safeway employee, a yoga instructor and a bunch of twenty-somethings. Few had real political experience.

In 2015, Notley’s Progressive Conservative opponents also ran one of the worst campaigns in modern Alberta history. Nationally, the NDP was polling respectably in 2014. And Notley’s family was (and is) admired in Alberta. Her Dad was a much-loved former MLA who died tragically in a plane crash in 1984.

But, mostly, Rachel Notley lost because of Justin Trudeau. She trusted him, as did other Albertans. And she shouldn’t have. His early promises to Alberta were deceptions. They were intended to win him seats – but Trudeau clearly never had any intention of helping Alberta families survive.

My engineer buddy, who has had to lay off dozens of engineers, and take whatever work he can get, nods grimly at all this. He was born in Montreal, grew up in Manitoba and Alberta, and was always a Liberal. No more.

“He’s a liar,” my friends says, holding a glass of the best local stuff, Trad. “He’s a goddamn liar. He’s way more hated than his father ever was, in Alberta. And Notley is the one who is going to wear it.”

That was unfortunate, my engineering pal said, because he regarded Rachel Notley as “decent, smart and principled.” Many people in Alberta admired the NDP Premier, he said.

“But she was unlucky. She won when the bottom was falling out,” he said. “That’s not her fault. But her alliance with Trudeau, at the start, is something people will never forgive.”

And they didn’t. Once again, anything with the “Liberal” brand is anathema in Alberta, thanks to Justin Trudeau. On election night, the Alberta Liberal leader – a smart, hard-working constitutional lawyer, David Khan – was creamed, finishing a distant fourth in Calgary MountainView. His party was wiped out across the province, not winning a single seat.

Justin Trudeau may not have been on the ballot in Alberta, but he surely helped determine the result, more than any other Canadian politician. He helped elect Jason Kenney and defeat Rachel Notley. He did that.

My engineering buddy looked at me.

“Alberta hates Justin Trudeau,” he says. “And we are going to teach him a lesson in October.”


Comments (48)

Symmetry

— 04.22.2019 01:27 PM

The crazies on both sides don’t like it.


Comments (6)