The rule I have always followed is this: in any letter or email, the message being conveyed is always contained in the second-to-last paragraph. The first part is just throat-clearing and the end part is just sign-off.
So, too stories about polling, it seems. The way I read it, the Star has finally figured out it look’s like a horse’s ass pimping all those Forum “Research” polls – the accuracy of which are discussed here and here – and they’re now hedging their bets. Thus, the second-to-last paragraph:
“Like most polling firms, Forum uses a proprietary weighting formula, which has been shared with the Star, to more accurately reflect the broader electorate. Raw data from this poll will be housed in the Political Science Data Library at the University of Toronto.”
So, if you want to see how wildly they’re off this time, you’d better start your trek through the snow to U of T, you hear?
Anyway. After talking to various pollsters and politicos, your Free Warren Poll™ is this:
- The Wynne Liberals are in third place in North, Southwestern Ontario and Eastern Ontario, and have been for some time;
- The chances of the Hudak PCs losing Thornhill, when the Libs bizarrely called the by-election at the same Stephen Harper was in Israel, are somewhere between slim and none;
- The Board are doing to the Ontario Liberals what they did ten years ago to the federal Liberals;
- The Hudak PCs, like the Wynne Liberals, are now both attacking the Horwath NDP in paid and earned, which tells you all you need to know; and
- The Wynne Liberal pollster has told cabinet that all they can now hope to hold is fortress Toronto, but they can hold onto government, if they pick up a few GTA seats – which is more on crack that Rob Ford is.
This Free Warren Poll™ is completely 100 per cent accurate, 20 times out of 20. You’re welcome.