A Ford Nation poll, inaccurate 21 times out of 20

— 12.03.2017 08:01 PM

Look, I get along well with Doug Ford. I shouldn’t, given that I am a Bolshevik, in comparative terms. But we get along.

So.

There’s this poll that mysteriously appeared tonight, dropped on a Sunday night for what is called “rip and read” – designed to secure lots of uncritical play on Monday morning.

I won’t get into the nitty-gritty of the “poll,” because life’s too short. But here’s some of the stuff it says:

  • “When asked, if the election was held today who they would vote for Mayor, 38.66% of respondents support John Tory, compared to 32.91% for Doug Ford, 28.43% of voters are still undecided.”
  • “With John Tory’s lead of 5.75 percentage points what is significant from this massive sample is that in 2014 Toronto mayoral election John Tory won with a 6.55 percentage points lead with 40.28%, to Doug  Ford’s 33.73% and Olivia Chow at 23.15%.”
  • “With such narrow percentage difference between John Tory, Doug Ford and the undecided falling within the margin of error, the race to become the next Mayor of Toronto is up for grabs with less than one year before Election Day.”

Hmmm.

Along with being ungrammatical, and ridiculously self-promoting, here’s what is odd about this “poll.”

  • The outfit who cooked this thing up calls itself “The Firm Digital.” Ever heard of them before? Neither has anybody else.
  • Reputable firms always carefully describe their methodology. These guys don’t.
  • They get some pretty basic stuff wrong. For example, with a sample of this size, their margin of error is actually 0.78 per cent, not 4.1 per cent.
  • They claim to have done this gargantuan poll by telephone. But most Fortune 500 companies couldn’t afford to pay for a telephone survey with that many respondents. So who paid?
  • They haven’t included any tables. Why not? Every reputable polling firm always includes tables. What are they hiding?
  • Go to their website. It’s a splash page, basically. Nothing else. And if you Google Firm Digital, you see that the firm only started this year.
  • Oh, and this: their “CEO,”‘ Ramona Benson, has appeared for months playing a “reporter” in the videos of the rabidly anti-Wynne group, Ontario Proud. Not exactly neutral behaviour for a “pollster.”
  • Any reputable polling agency that my firm works with are registered with the MRIA – the Market Research and Intelligence Association. These guys aren’t.

Anyway: it doesn’t add up, folks. At all.

I’d say that something is rotten in Ford Nation, but you knew that already.


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Carleton U. reports on on this week’s lecture

— 12.01.2017 03:16 PM

Warren Kinsella talks Trump, Brexit and the far-right threat

Carleton alumnus Warren Kinsella returned to his alma mater on Thursday, November 30 for a public lecture on the rise of the far-right in the Trump/Brexit era.

Warren Kinsella gave a public lecture at Carleton this week on “The Rise of the Far Right in the Trump/Brexit Era: Lessons for Political Communication.”
Kinsella, who worked as a communications strategist on election campaigns for Hillary Clinton and Jean Chrétien, discussed the recent surge in anti-immigrant and anti-refugee sentiment in Western democracies and the implications for political communications.

“The beast is awake,” said Kinsella on the rise white supremacist and neo-Nazi movements across the country, a worrying trend which he described as “just the tip of the iceberg” given the lack of statistics on hate crimes in Canada.

Kinsella, who completed his Bachelor of Journalism at Carleton, warned that journalists need to avoid softening their language when reporting on these movements.

“Don’t call them white nationalists and don’t call them the alt-right,” said Kinsella, a Toronto-based lawyer, author and human rights activist. “They’re neo-Nazis and white supremacists.”

In answer to the question of how individuals can take action and fight far-right movements, Kinsella advocated for getting off social media and getting involved in local politics.

“A tweet is not enough,” Kinsella said. “A Facebook link is not enough. You need to show up.”

Following his lecture on campus, Kinsella spent the afternoon at Octopus Books to celebrate the release of his latest book, Recipe For Hate, which provides a fictionalized account of the clash between progressives and organized racism.

Kinsella’s breakfast talk was co-organized by the Communication & Media Studies Program, Department of Political Science and the Clayton H. Riddell Graduate Program in Political Management, with support from the Office of the Dean, Faculty of Public Affairs.

 


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He was just the office boy National Security Advisor!

— 12.01.2017 10:50 AM

Totally unimportant. Nobody remembers him. Michael Who?

To wit:

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s former national security adviser, Michael T. Flynn, is expected to plead guilty on Friday to lying to the F.B.I. about two conversations with the Russian ambassador last December during the presidential transition.

The charges were the latest indication that Mr. Flynn was cooperating with the investigation by the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, into Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election. Mr. Flynn was scheduled to appear in federal court in Washington at 10:30 on Friday morning.

A plea deal with Mr. Flynn brings Mr. Mueller’s investigation into Mr. Trump’s inner circle. Such an agreement suggests that Mr. Flynn provided information to prosecutors, which may help advance the inquiry.

In all seriousness, two things: one, remember this little shithead leading chants of “lock her up”? Remember all that? Schadenfreude doesn’t begin to describe it.

Two, I hope the rest of these racist, sexist, fascistic bastards – and President PissTape in particular – have a really, really miserable weekend.

I know the rest of us won’t!


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Punk rock, reaching across borders and the ages

— 12.01.2017 08:34 AM

Our record label CEO, Simon Harvey, sent me a note:

Well, this is cool. A friend in Vancouver just posted a picture, of a stack of great old singles he’s recently scooped, in the ’70s punk collector group. Joe Kidd– an early ’80s fixture who played in the most important Philippine punk band and is to that country’s scene as Biafra is to the US or Shithead is to Canada– posted this reply. I’m sending him both the Nasties EP and an SFH LP, of course!

You can read more about Joe Kidd here. And here’s his note to Simon!


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My U of C law prof is being appointed to the Supreme Court – and she is in my new book!

— 11.29.2017 10:12 AM

Amazing!

The newest addition to the Supreme Court of Canada will be Sheilah Martin.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Wednesday morning his nomination of Martin to fill the seat on the Supreme Court that will be left vacant when Chief Justice Beverley McLachlin retires on December 15.

Sheilah Martin was a great inspiration for me at the University of Calgary – even if she was a tough marker.

And get this, heretofore never revealed: that isn’t the only thing she inspired. Swear to God: one of the main characters in my book Recipe For Hate is based on Sheila Martin!

If that doesn’t spur book sales amongst the high court bar, I don’t know what will!

(This book tour, kicking off in Ottawa today, just got a lot more interesting.)


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