Bloodbath. Destruction. Massacre. Decimation. Wipeout.
Use whatever synonym you like, and it’ll apply. The Liberal Party of Canada – at one time, the most-successful political machine in Western democracy – is heading inexorably towards a defeat of truly historic proportions.
Some of us have been warning, for a long time, that this day was coming. Justin Trudeau, we opined, had turned the Liberal Party into a cult – a cult of personality. We said that, when he fell – and he would, because every leader does, if they’re in power too long – he would take the whole party down with him.
We said that the Trudeau Liberals had become tired and old. That they overpromised and under-delivered. That they had become a top-down movement – and were no longer a bottom-up political party. That they had become what they came to Ottawa to change – division, disunity, hyper-partisanship. That they couldn’t stick to a position if their lives depended on it – as with Israel, which they support or don’t support, depending on the weather.
But, even after all that, the latest numbers are just shocking.
They come to us from Nanos, a firm that the Trudeau government itself uses. It’s one of the best. And here’s many seats will change as a result of Nanos’ latest poll.
• Conservatives: projected to win 210 seats, which is 91 more than they have now
• Liberals: projected to win only 53, a drop of 107 seats
• New Democrats: projected to take 39 seats, which is 14 more than they presently have
• Greens: Nine seats, which is a pickup of seven
• Bloc Quebecois: no change
Take another look at that. Pierre Polievre’s Tories are projected to win four times as many seats as Justin Trudeau’s Grits. Four times!
Every party in the House of Commons is likely to pick up seats in the next election, as well – or, in the case of the Bloc, hold what they have. But the Trudeau Liberals, according to this Polling Canada seat model of Nanos’ numbers, are bleeding to everyone else – the Tories, the Dippers, the Greens. They are being crushed on the Left and the Right.
TruAnon winged monkeys will say, and have, that the next vote is a long way off – and that’s true. They will say that the Tories are peaking way too soon – which is arguably true. They will say that Trudeau remains their best asset, because he’s beaten the Tories thrice – and that he’s a great campaigner.
Not true. Not anymore.
If modern politics is a “daily campaign,” and it is, then Trudeau has been losing that, every single day. He and his cabal have been buffeted by too many stories about mistakes, missteps, and malfeasance. It’s impossible to credit them with a single clear win in 2023. There isn’t one. They’ve lost the daily campaign.
Similarly, Justin Trudeau can no longer be regarded as the Liberals’ secret weapon. He in fact is their biggest problem.
Way back when, this writer worked for Jean Chretien. I was pushing Chretien one day to do some press on an issue. Chretien declined. “Young man,” said he, “I don’t want or need to be in the media every single day. If you do that, people will get sick of your face.”
And that, in a Chretienite nutshell, is Trudeau’s biggest problem of all: overexposure. He’s been in our faces too often, too long. When his days were sunny, Trudeau would benefit, with Rolling Stone cover stories, and fawning media profiles. He got all the credit.
No longer. With the economy and the national mood faltering,Trudeau is now taking all the blame. In politics, you have to take the good with the bad, and Trudeau is now experiencing much more of the latter than the former.
Thus, the polls. Thus, the seat projections, which suggest 1984 and 1993-sized upsets are imminent.
For despondent Liberals, what is the only way out? Simple.
Justin, just go. For the love of God, just go.