Justin Trudeau wants an election sooner than later.

Why?

Because, you know, he could win it. Big. 

But, but, but: a fourth wave is coming. Jagmeet Singh’s NDP is surging. Canadians don’t like Summertime elections. The don’t-go-early examples provided by David Peterson and Jim Prentice. 

And, most of all, it may make voters really mad at Trudeau. The polling agency Nanos says nearly 40 per cent of Canadians are “upset” at the prospect of voting anytime soon. 

So, given all that, why is Trudeau jonesing for a vote now? Ten reasons. 

1. His opponents. Trudeau thinks he’s a better campaigner than his opponents, and he’s not wrong. He’s beaten two Tory leaders (one a majority Prime Minister), and he’s convinced himself Erin O’Toole will make it a hat trick.

2. The polls. He’s ahead in them, across the board. In some cases, way ahead. The Conservatives, in fact, may be as much as 12 points behind the Trudeau Liberals – which would see O’Toole resigning on election night, among other things.

3. WE forget. He made vaccine acquisition a fiasco, sure, and the WE scandal cemented the perception that he is corrupt. But voters generally have a memory span of minutes: they’ve forgotten much of that stuff. Besides, it’s a pandemic: most of us can’t recall what day it is, let alone what Trudeau did last year.

4. Dishonesty abounds. The good news for Trudeau haters: Canadians tend to agree that Trudeau is dishonest. The bad news: they think everybody involved in politics is a liar. Hollering that Trudeau is corrupt gets the Opposition nowhere, because voters believe none of them would be any better.

5. Midstream horses. There’s an old cliché about changing horses midstream. And it particularly applies to pandemic politics. Canadians may not be enthusiastic about Justin Trudeau‘s performance – and slightly more than half aren’t – but they’re even less enthusiastic about big political changes in the middle of a global public health crisis.

6. The aforementioned fourth wave. The experts say it’s not a question of if, but when. So when the fourth wave happens, Justin Trudeau would prefer it happens after his unnecessary, half-a-billion-dollar election. Not during or before.

7. The Liberal war room. Trudeau Liberals may be terrible at governing, but they’re pretty darn good at campaigning. They are prepared to say and do anything to win. Anything. If they have an ideology, in fact, it’s winning elections. Their opponents, meanwhile, I think losing is principled.

8. The media. We ink-stained wretches know that Trudeau is corrupt and dishonest leader. But, when Conservative partisans continually call us in the media similarly corrupt and dishonest, we have a tendency not to write nice things about them. All evidence to the contrary, reporters are human too.

9. Incumbency. With the notable exception of Donald Trump, incumbent governments have greatly benefited from the pandemic. Challengers haven’t. In government, Trudeau controls announcements, spending and decision-making. Power and the pandemic are his friends.

10. His ego. That’s what this election is all about. Justin Trudeau wants another majority because he wants another majority. He’s obsessed with his size, you might say, like adolescent males tend to be. And that’s why he wants an election now. Period.

Could he change course? Could he put off a trip to the residence of the newly-installed Governor General? Sure. Of course.

But my money is on an election now. 

Not later.

[Kinsella was special assistant to Jean Chretien.]

Comments (60)

Comments (0)

Dear Joe:

You don’t mind if I call you Joe, do you? I mean, I know you’re president of the United States and all, but I feel like we’re close.

Joe, you seem to have forgotten that I worked for you, for months. Even though I was way up here in Trudeaustan, unable to cross the border, I volunteered for you.

I was with you when you were seeking the Democratic presidential nomination, Joe, and everyone except me said you were going to lose. I worked for you when you defied all the nay-sayers, and won the nomination.

For months, Joe, I worked the phones for you. From my little farmhouse up here in Prince Edward County, I’d call voters all over the States for you. New Hampshire to Florida to California, and myriad points in between. I’d call, Joe. For you, big guy.

Did the voter need a ride to a polling station? Did they get the advance voting package from the town clerk’s office? Did they double-envelope it, and sign it, and mail it back? Were there any questions I could answer?

Hundreds and hundreds of calls, Joe. I did that for you. Because I have believed in you way back to 2008, when that young senator from Chicago picked you to be his running mate.

I have never doubted you, Joe — partly because you so reminded me of my former boss, Jean Chretien. But that’s a column for another day.

Anyway, Joe, since you became president, I’ve been good. I didn’t complain too much when you killed the Keystone pipeline, even though your country and mine both need it.

I didn’t gripe when you wouldn’t let COVID vaccines be shipped from America to Canada (we got a lot of ours from Europe and India).

But the border thing, Joe. I can’t let that one go.

This week, our toy prime minister announced that Canada would be welcoming fully vaccinated Americans starting Aug. 9. You? You sent out your press secretary to sniff that you wouldn’t do likewise. Said she: “I wouldn’t look at it through reciprocal intention.”

Seriously, Joe? Reciprocal intention? I mean, is reciprocal even a word? (It is, Kinsella. – Ed.)

OK, it may be a word, but it’s no way to treat your best friend and ally. We’re letting your fully-vaxxed folks in: why can’t you let in ours?

It’s not fair. It’s not scientific. Most problematic of all: it’s put me in a situation where I have to say something nice about Justin Trudeau and something critical about Joe Biden! (Told you, Kinsella. — Ed.)

Joe, your fellow Democrats in Congress want you to let us Trudeaupians in. So do Democratic governors and state legislators. So do chambers of commerce. So does everyone down there, with the possible exception of the GOP, which is as good a reason as any to let us in.

Look, Joe, we know you have a political problem. The Mexicans want the border reopened, too. But your predecessor, the Mango Mussolini, made the U.S.-Mexico border a hot topic. We get it.

So open it just to us, Joe. You have nothing to fear from Canadians. Even our hockey teams can’t beat yours.

I worked for you, Joe. I shed blood, sweat and tears for you. I believe in you, Joe.

But I need you to open up the border to us, big guy. If not for Justin, then for me.

I’ve got a Red Sox game at Fenway to get to, Joe, and I’m counting on you. Don’t let me down.

Yours faithfully, your humble volunteer,

Warren

Comments (19)