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O lucky man

Justin Trudeau is the luckiest guy alive. Consider the evidence.

  • He starts slipping in the polls. Along comes Donald Trump to the G7 and insults him and Canada and makes Trudeau the most popular politician on Earth. Not just Canada. Earth.
  • He and his rookie government make rookie mistakes. Along comes Jagmeet Singh and Andrew Scheer, who proceed to make even more mistakes and underwhelm Canadians from coast to coast.
  • He gets in trouble with India and other stuff that makes him look unserious. Along comes Trump, again, who makes Trudeau seem positively Churchillian on any given day.
  • He doesn’t have big legislative wins, and he hasn’t won a new NAFTA, either. Along comes a broad-based voter consensus that the government that does less, not more, is the government that angers them the least.
  • He’s in trouble on his Left flank (pipelines, electoral reform). Along comes Doug Ford, who (irrationally) freaks out Lefties and will drive them back into Trudeau’s waiting arms.
  • He’s in trouble on his Right flank (deficits, taxes). Along comes John Horgan’s ilk, who (appropriately) anger Righties and who thereby make Trudeau look not so bad after all.
  • He gets into difficulty on any number of fronts (#MeToo, abortion, etc.). And along comes any number of politicians (see Scheer, Singh, above) who adopt positions that make Trudeau look exceedingly moderate and sensible.

It goes on and on. The guy just can’t lose for winning.

Comments are open.


Column: Kathleen put Kathleen first

Kathleen Wynne’s former cabinet colleague doesn’t mince words.

“Kathleen is all about Kathleen,” the former colleague says.  “That’s always her focus.”

One of her former fundraisers and advisors is similarly candid with this writer.  “I appreciate all the nice things you’ve been saying about me, but thought I should let you know I haven’t been involved with [Wynne] for months,” he says.  And he’s very happy to have nothing more to do with her, the former advisor says.

A former Liberal candidate, Jim Curran, is willing to let his name be used.  He is livid about Wynne’s ahistorical decision to concede defeat days before the vote, thereby consigning her candidates and caucus to political oblivion. Says Curran: “What Kathleen did to her candidates was pretty much the shittiest thing I’ve ever seen a leader do to her own, hardworking, selfless, dedicated candidates who have put their lives and families on hold for the party they believe in. It was absolutely selfish and totally disgusting.”

There are lots more stories like that, but suffice to say this: Kathleen Wynne lost.

She lost because her $70,000-a-month campaign Wizard ran the worst campaign in modern Canadian political history.  She lost because her war room was a joke – “the surrender room,” as someone said. She lost because she had no message to offer Ontario’s voters.  She lost because what messages she had – inter alia, “Sorry Not Sorry” – were juvenile and idiotic.  She lost because she thought she won in 2014 – when, in fact, Tim Hudak snatched defeat from the clichéd jaws of victory.

She lost because she gave up the political centre. She lost because she and her mercenary inner circle saw the Ontario Liberal Party as a vehicle for their personal ambitions – and now they have left it with massive debt, adrift, a shell.

But, mainly, Kathleen Wynne lost because of Kathleen Wynne.  She lost because something – Hubris? Self-delusion? Ego? – persuaded her to stick around longer than she should.  Something persuaded her that it was all about her.

Because, as her former senior cabinet colleague notes, to Kathleen, it is always all about Kathleen.

Now, there can be little debate that Kathleen Wynne was smart, she was driven.  No debate.  One does not become a Premier, generally, by being an idiot.  But, her intelligence notwithstanding, Wynne refused to see the writing on the wall.

It was there for all to see.  For two years leading up to the 2018 Ontario general election, Kathleen was the most unpopular Premier in Canada.  Angus Reid and other pollsters dryly reported on it at regular intervals: Wynne was deeply despised by Ontarians.  They wanted change.  They wanted her gone.

She didn’t seem to care.  Solipsism, or something, told her that she could communicate her way out of her dilemma.  She was, of course, the Premier who hustled to every Loblaws in Ontario to promote limited beer sales like it was the announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize.  She could communicate anything, she told herself.

The polls told a different story.  A while ago, this writer and others commissioned a poll by a reputable national agency.  It showed that the Ontario Liberal brand was popular.  It showed that mostly McGuinty-era policies were popular.  It showed that, with former cabinet minister Sandra Pupatello at the helm, the party could win another majority.

But, under Wynne, the poll showed that the Ontario Liberal Party was heading straight for the rocks.

Last Thursday night, the Ontario Liberal Party – formerly one of the most successful political parties in the Western world – hit the rocks.  It was reduced to barely a half-dozen seats and no party status.

To the end, Kathleen Wynne made it all about her. “I have not lost the passion for continuing this work,” she said.

But  Ontario long ago lost any passion it had for her.


OLP: the aftermath, and the future

The Wizard, and Wynne, have destroyed the Ontario Liberal Party.

A rump in the Legislature.  A massive party debt.  A terrible, terrible campaign – possibly the worst in Ontario political history.

So where do Ontario Liberals go from here?

I gave many years of my life to the Ontario Liberals.  They were my political home – until Kathleen Wynne arrived, that is.  When she arrived, all of the McGuinty/Chrétien Liberals were driven out.  We were maligned and shunned.  Offers of help were ignored.  Some days, Kathleen refused to even utter Dalton McGuinty’s name.

Now Kathleen and her Wizard – who was reportedly getting $70,000 a month to preside over the worst campaign some of us have ever seen – are gone, or going.  I like Kathleen, as a person, and wish her the best in her future endeavours.  But good riddance to Kathleen the politician, and her Wizard and her Board.

So where do we Ontario Liberals go from here?

Not so long ago, when it became apparent to some of us that a Wynne-led Ontario Liberal Party was headed for disaster, Daisy Group commissioned a poll by a reputable national agency.  We wanted to know what would happen if the OLP was led by the woman who should have won in 2013 – the woman who was knifed in the back after a shady backroom deal involving Messrs. Murray, Hoskins and Sousa.

Below are the key findings, never before seen publicly.  They show three things:

  1. The Ontario Liberals would have won last night, big, with Sandra Pupatello.
  2. The Ontario Liberals would have picked up support in precisely those places where the PCs and the NDP triumphed last night.
  3. The Ontario Liberal brand was strong – but only with Pupatello as leader.

So, you may ask yourself: can Ontario Liberals come back from last night’s disaster?

Yes. But only if Sandra Pupatello is leader.

And, if she wants the job.


Kathleen Wynne doesn’t think she should have resigned

On Saturday, five days before Election Day, the Ontario Liberal leader conceded the election. Usually, politicians wait until, you know, the actual vote has taken place.  But Kathleen Wynne insisted she was doing so because she wanted to help her party’s candidates. “I would never want to do anything that would undermine any of my candidates, any of those races. I have thought long and hard about this, believe me,” she said.

Her view: I’m helping out my caucus and candidates by throwing in the towel.  The view of many Ontario Liberals: bullshit.

One lifelong Grit, Jim Curran, wrote this on Facebook. He has given me approval to quote it:

I am voting Liberal anyway. What Kathleen did to her candidates yesterday was pretty much the shittiest thing I’ve ever seen a leader do to her own, hardworking, selfless, dedicated candidates who have put their lives and families on hold for the party they believe in. It was absolutely selfish and totally disgusting IMHO. I will continue to support my local Liberal candidate as the alternative is not acceptable to me. I’m for a party dedicated to a living wage for its citizens, free pharma for the young, dedication to making sure our kids get to go to college and dedication to building and expanding hospitals for our growing and aging population. In [my riding] I will be voting for [his candidate], LIBERAL.

I feel the same way.  I am disgusted by what Wynne and her $70,000-a-month “strategist” Wizard did.  But I am going to enthusiastically vote for my friend Arthur Potts, the Ontario Liberal candidate in our riding, because he richly deserves re-election.

This morning, Kathleen Wynne was yet again on CBC Toronto’s Metro Morning, because she likes preaching to the choir.  Matt Galloway, who is a tough interviewer, demanded to know why Wynne didn’t quit the leadership a year ago.  Lots of us have been wondering that, although I was pretty much the only one saying so publicly.

Wynne dodged and weaved, but then she finally said she had consulted her “advisors and colleagues,” a year ago, but concluded that she “really believed” she could get re-elected.

Let’s examine that, shall we?

Exactly one year ago, here’s what the Angus Reid Group were saying about Wynne’s ability to get re-elected.

Not too good, eh?  Least-popular Premier in Canada.

But maybe she meant to say the year before that – in 2016.  So, here she is in May of that year.

A bit better, but not by much. So, what gives? Kathleen Wynne has been very unpopular for a very long time. What persuaded her to “really believe” she could win over the past couple years?

There are two possibilities, here. One, she is delusional, and totally removed from political reality. Having known her for a long time, however, I can tell you this is impossible. She is very, very smart.

The other possibility is one I have been hearing whispers about: Kathleen Wynne was being presented with numbers that were completely and totally wrong. Those bogus numbers persuaded her – and, beyond her, her cabinet and caucus, who never once rose up in revolt – that victory was attainable.

I think you all know where I am going with this.

Kathleen Wynne would have resigned a year ago if she had been presented with reliable, verifiable data. She would have have quit if she knew the truth. But someone didn’t give her the truth.

I wonder who that person is?


This is what $70,000 a month gets you

This is pathetic. It’s farcical.

And, as I will show everyone next week, it was completely needless.

If she had left a year ago – and if she had taken her pitiful Wizard and the Board with her – we could have won.

This is on them.

Kathleen Wynne on Saturday acknowledged that she will no longer be premier after the June 7 election and encouraged voters to elect Liberal candidates to prevent the NDP or PCs from securing a majority.

“Even though I won’t be leading this province as premier, I care deeply about how it will be led,” the Liberal leader said during a campaign stop in Toronto.

Public support for Wynne’s Liberals has plummeted since the election started on May 9, and Wynne said that a “confluence of things” led her to make her statement on Saturday.


About that huge, huge Globe investigative story: read it

Three things about this extraordinary investigative story.

One, it’s behind a paywall because journalists deserve to get paid just like you are.  Do you give away your goods and services for free?  Neither should they.  Cough up a few bucks and subscribe, for Chrissakes.  Don’t be cheap.

Two, this story is going to have an impact on the Ontario election – in a way that is very unhelpful to prominent Ontario Liberals.

Three, I left Navigator when Glen Murray arrived there, unbidden by me.  I despise him. His life is about to get very complicated, and deservedly so.

Snippets:

On March 23, 2013 – a Saturday – Mr. Murray travelled to the farm fields south of Bolton that Solmar sought to build on.

In an interview with The Globe last year, Mr. Murray acknowledged that he did not travel alone, but he declined to identify whom he was with, other than to say it was a “planner” or “consultant” for Solmar…During his site visit, Mr. Murray e-mailed his chief of staff, David Black, and asked him what powers he had, as minister, with respect to the housing development.

Mr. Black responded with blunt advice: “There is no action you can take.”

Mr. Black (who is now chief of staff to Infrastructure Minister Bob Chiarelli) declined to respond to questions from The Globe. But his e-mails to Mr. Murray – obtained under the Freedom of Information Act – show he was concerned that his boss was with someone from Solmar.

And that was potentially a big problem. Solmar had taken Caledon to the Ontario Municipal Board, the quasi-judicial body that has the power to overturn the planning decisions of cities and towns, and a decision had yet to be rendered. But the OMB can be overruled by cabinet – which is why, Mr. Black warned his boss that day, ministers are forbidden from interacting with developers currently before the tribunal.

“I hope you are not in the Bolton area with anyone who might have an active OMB case,” Mr. Black e-mailed to Mr. Murray. “Ministers meeting with active OMB appellants can be grounds for the Premier to ask for your resignation because it can look like you are trying to influence the outcome of an OMB case.”

…But his interest in Bolton did not fade. On April 18, Mayor Morrison and two of her staff drove to Queen’s Park at the request of Mr. Murray.

According to Ms. Morrison and another staff member present that day, Mr. Murray scolded them for what he said was poor planning. He had a specific idea, too: The swath of land south of Bolton should be designated for homes .

Next, Minister Murray asked all of the aides, including his own, to leave the room. All of a sudden Ms. Morrison found herself in the type of meeting she had long refused to take – one without witnesses. And what unfolded next reminded her why.

“In my opinion, he threatened me,” said Ms. Morrison, who recounted the exchange, over several interviews with The Globe. “He told me that he had some complaints against me that were very serious and that he could make them go away if I changed those lands to residential.”

Ms. Morrison, then in her 10th year as mayor, insisted she had done nothing wrong, and that Mr. Murray could do whatever he liked with those “complaints.”

As he prepared to leave the room, she says, the minister repeated one more time that she “had better” permit homes on that land.

The kicker, about the Premier who received a complaint from a Mayor about one of her Ministers making a threat – and the Premier who did nothing about it, and why:

There is another person whom Ms. Morrison says she told about the encounter: Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne.

In December of 2013, she heard Ms. Wynne on the radio claiming, in the wake of a massive ice storm, that she had spoken with all the mayors in the GTA. Ms. Morrison – who had lately become disenchanted with politics and had decided not to seek re-election the following year – became enraged: She had never heard from the Premier in the storm’s aftermath.

And so she sent the Premier a letter that made a pointed reference to a TV ad, filmed in Caledon, that showed Ms. Wynne out for a run. “Perhaps you have forgotten that Caledon is one of the GTA municipalities, not just a scenic location north of the city to film jogging commercials.”

Not long after, says Ms. Morrison, Ms. Wynne called her and said, “I got your letter … I don’t understand why you’re so upset.”

“I’ll tell you why,” the mayor replied, and chronicled Mr. Murray’s conduct. She says Ms. Wynne told her “I’ll be dealing with him.”

Ms. Morrison said that, at the time of that phone call, she didn’t realize that Solmar had donated $20,000 to Ms. Wynne’s 2012 leadership campaign – a sum that was among the largest contributions it received.

It was the last time she spoke with Ms. Wynne. 


Hate hits Toronto neighbourhood

Warren Kinsella, a former Liberal strategist, author and lawyer who is currently writing a book about the growth of hate groups among young people, said the posters are concerning, in part because of how detailed they are.

“There’s swastikas, lightning bolt, the SS death head symbol,” Kinsella said, noting the posters also include more obscure references.

Author Warren Kinsella believes someone who has knowledge of neo-Nazi imagery and neo-Nazi lingo is responsible for the posters. (CBC)

“For example, on one poster there’s a reference to 14 — that’s the 14 words, which is about securing a future for white children. There is a reference to the number 88, and 88 represents HH in the alphabet, which is ‘heil Hitler.’ So it is somebody who has knowledge of neo-Nazi imagery and neo-Nazi lingo and needs to be taken seriously as a result.”

Kinsella said a concerned parent in the area called him about the posters, but didn’t want their name published. He said that shows people are already unnerved by what they’re seeing.

Link here.


About that “sorry not sorry” ad

Whoever came up with this fetid, squalid, shambolic atrocity should be – in the memorable words of a certain Campaign Wizard™️ – hauled into the village square and pilloried. It is among the worst I have ever seen – and that’s saying something.

This is what $70,000 a month gets you, folks. Thankfully, the lot of them will be finding a new line of work in ten days’ time.


That’s not a campaign, that’s advanced rigor mortis

The last time a campaign did something this stupid, you may recall, was 2005-2006.

That campaign was run by The Wizard™️.

And we all remember how it turned out, don’t we?