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It’s big news, certainly.

And, naturally, Republicans will say that the death of the head of ISIS will make their leader a lot more popular. They will say it’ll get him re-elected as president. But are they right?

Well, the only recent precedent we have to go on is the killing of Osama bin Laden in 2011, which had been ordered by Barack Obama. It was pretty popular, too. Obama even made a controversial campaign ad about it in 2012.

Obama was re-elected in that year, but that probably had more to do with his opponent, and the improving economy, than the dead al-Qaeda leader.

Gallup, for example, found that Americans’ approval of Obama was up six points after the death of Osama bin Laden in a U.S. raid on the al-Qaeda leader’s Pakistan compound. Obama averaged 46 per cent approval in Gallup Daily tracking in the three days leading up to the military operation – and averaged 52 per cent in the days that followed. Gallup called it “typical for rally events.”

Ditto Pew. They found that the mission to take out bin Laden did nothing to diminish Americans’ concerns about Obama’s handling of the economy, Pew reported in the Washington Post.

There, 56 per cent of Americans said they approved of Obama’s performance in office overall, which was nine percentage points higher than an ABC News/Washington Post poll found in the previous month.

But on the economy, Pew said, Obama’s numbers remained pretty low and unchanged — only 40 per cent approved of his economic strategy, which was the lowest rating of his presidency.

And so on. The guy who recently left the Kurds to be killed by the Turks – and who thereby permitted the escape of scores of ISIS prisoners who had been held by the Kurds – now wants credit for killing Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi?

He’ll get some. But not enough to prevent his impeachment in 2019, and his loss of the presidency in 2020.

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Joey and Roxy, staying still for a few precious seconds.

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The day after the election, two things happened.

Shares in SNC-Lavalin – a company based in Quebec – went up, way up.  Up 14 per cent, in a single day.

And Husky Energy – a company based in Alberta – laid off hundreds of people.  I don’t know the exact number, but every news report said “hundreds.”

I didn’t find out about it from the media, anyway.  I found out from my best friend, who runs an engineering firm in Calgary.  He sent me an email.

The message was clear.  Trudeau gets re-elected, Quebec wins.  Alberta, and the West, loses.

A Quebec-based company – one Trudeau and his PMO arguably obstructed justice to help avoid a corruption prosecution – wins.  And a fine Calgary company – one that plays by the rules and even embraced the idea of a carbon tax – loses.

I was born in Montreal, as was my best friend. We grew up together.  We, and our families, were always reliably Liberal – even during the NEP.  Pierre Trudeau’s energy plan was a huge mistake, but he at least had a philosophical context for what he did.  And he had the intellectual faculties to explain himself.

His son, almost 40 years later, basically doesn’t.  The son stood at a podium in Ottawa and said he needed to pay extra attention to the West, now.  But he talked about the West like it was a foreign country, one he hasn’t visited yet.  One he’d like to check out before his AirMiles run out.

Nobody in the West believes him anymore.  As Matt Gurney wrote in the Post this morning, Justin Trudeau demonized Alberta and Saskatchewan throughout the election – their leaders, their way of life – and now he expects everyone to forget that, I guess.  He surrounds himself with advisors and ministers who heap contempt on the West and Westerners.

And who then clamber into big chauffeured limousines propelled by, you know, Western oil.

I’ve lived in Toronto for more years than I thought I ever would.  A couple weeks ago, I decided: I want out.  I want out of here.  

Westerners, starting Monday night, have started saying the same thing, in a way that they never did during the NEP.

As they watch Husky employees step onto Eighth Avenue, carrying boxes filled with personal belongings and potted plants, SNC-Lavalin investors probably don’t give a sweet damn.

But they will, they will.

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Elections produce mythologies and stupidities.  An example of a stupidity is that opposition research firms – like, say, mine – don’t actually do opposition research.

An example of a mythology is that Trudeau, Scheer, Singh and May won.  They didn’t.  They all lost what they most wanted: Trudeau, a majority.  Scheer, power.  Singh, more seats.  May, way more seats.

Another mythology that came out of this nasty, brutish and not-nearly-short-enough election: that Doug Ford sank Andrew Scheer.  He didn’t.

Now, some nameless nattering nabobs (naturally) have been hissing to reporters that Andrew Scheer would have done better if it wasn’t for Doug Ford, blah blah blah.  The problem with that is twofold: one, Doug Ford did what the Scheer people asked of him – he basically disappeared from public view.  He kept his head down, to avoid becoming an issue in the federal election.

Ontario’s Premier kept so quiet, in fact, he didn’t even say anything when Scheer’s folks insulted him, and invited Alberta’s Premier to campaign at three dozen events across Ontario.  And Doug Ford even kept his cool when the federal Tories okayed the greatest insult of all – they encouraged Jason Kenney to campaign in Doug Ford’s own riding, without giving him a head’s up.

That’s a big no-no. In politics, there are few greater insults than that: stomping through an ally’s turf without approval.  But even so: Doug Ford kept quiet, and he kept out of public view.  He kept his cool.  So, that’s reason number one that the Ford-sank-Scheer-in-Ontario theme is totally bogus.

Second reason?  This map.  Here’s how Doug Ford did in 2018.

See those swaths of blue?  Those are all the places where Doug Ford’s vote was located.  Places where Andrew Scheer did not win, and where Doug Ford did.

Ford’s party got less popular in their first year, true.  But so did the New Democrats.  Only the Ontario Liberals went up.  Since the Summer, Ford’s negatives have started to shrink, significantly.  His new approach to governing is paying off.

So, those are a couple reasons why the Ford-sank-Scheer claim is a myth: Ford wasn’t around, at all, when Scheer was.  And Ford’s historic Ontario strength is precisely in those places where Scheer – as we’ve learned – has none.

Andrew Scheer lost Ontario for lots of reasons, which are being documented by the pundits.

He didn’t lose because of Doug Ford.

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Well, everyone did, pretty much. This morning, it’s hard not to feel that way.

• Justin Trudeau was supposed to easily win a second majority. He didn’t. Blackface, broken promises and scandal – LavScam and Aga Khan, to name just two – have sullied his name, and reduced him to a minority.

• Andrew Scheer was running against a Liberal leader less popular than Donald Trump – a Liberal leader who was even hit with a massive scandal mid-campaign – and he still couldn’t win. The talking points about popular vote are sophistry – most of that vote came from the prairies, where it didn’t result in enough seats to win. We all knew he wanted to get rid of Trudeau – but we didn’t know what he’d do if he won.

• Jagmeet Singh was supposed to be the Jag-ernaut, the one everyone would turn to. But it didn’t work out that way. He lost Quebec seats and was shut out of places like Toronto, where he needed to win. His response to Trudeau’s blackface scandal was pitch-perfect – but he couldn’t translate that into a big victory.

• Elizabeth May lost, big. After multiple elections, after multiple tries, all she could do is add a single seat. As with Trudeau and Trump, it’s always dangerous to let your political party morph into a single person. She needs to go. And her party wants her to move on, too.

• Maxime Bernier is done, as my friend Brian Topp put it on TV last night. He’s done. And good riddance. Me and my firm were honoured to campaign against Bernier, who made common cause with racists, anti-Semites and white supremacists. His loss, his humiliation, was complete. May we never see his likes again.

• The West, my home, is again relegated to margins, as it was during the reign of Trudeau’s father. Trudeau didn’t seem to care about Alberta’s plight before, and he’ll care even less, now. Anger is rising in the West. There will be consequences.

• Unity, which wasn’t even on the ballot, lost. The separatists are back – visibly, in Quebec, less so in the West (for now) – and they intend to hold the future for ransom. The word “constitution” was used by the Bloc leader last night. Get ready to hear it many more times, in the weeks ahead.

• Canada lost. As in 1980, as with another Trudeau, Canada is deeply, deeply divided – with the West feeling powerless, and the East completely indifferent to that. We often claim to be better than America, but we’re like America, now – a nation divided, a nation moving apart.

Not very sunny ways, I know. And a (typical) overstatement, maybe. There are glimmers of hope in the detritus: Jody Wilson-Raybould’s huge win, Jane Philpott’s extraordinary dignity, the pollsters were finally right, the complete rejection of racist populism. But that’s about all I can see, on this rainy and cold morning.

I’m not sure where all of us are headed.

But it doesn’t feel like many victories await us there.

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It’s been quite a day.

So, a few things.

After a decade or more, I’ve deactivated Twitter and Facebook. I’ve had it. I may be back on social media, I may not. I don’t know.

I’m pulling back from other media, too. My family and my work colleagues don’t deserve what they’ve been going through. One of them even had to change her cell number today, it got so bad. Also, I’m sick. So, enough is enough.

I’m a lawyer; I’m not interested in getting disbarred. As Jody Wilson-Raybould knows too well, lawyers are not permitted to simply break vows of confidentiality. Only the client can let you do that. The client, here, hasn’t.

I’ve been researching, writing about, and opposing racism for more than three decades. Maxime Bernier and his People’s Party are indisputably racist. They are bigots. They have anti-Semitic and homophobic members. If someone wants to join forces with me to beat Bernier, I will always welcome it.

I’m proud to oppose bigots like Bernier, paid or not. And the client who wanted to expose and oppose bigotry? They deserve credit, not criticism.

The work we were doing ended many months ago. It was always going to be disclosed, by law. It was in no way inappropriate or wrong. Opposing organized bigotry is always appropriate and right. We were and are fiercely proud of the work we did.

We hired someone. That person made anti-Semitic, intolerant remarks and stole from our company. We got rid of that person. It doesn’t surprise me, in the slightest, that person would do something that would later assist Bernier’s intolerant political party. It’s what a hater would do.

All the journalists calling and texting: I get it. You have a job to do, and it’s the final weekend. But I’m just not going to respond anymore. So stop trying. Sorry.

Finally: I hold no party membership with anyone. I regard myself as an independent. As a firm, we have worked for every single political party – or candidates running under the banner of every single political party. Every one, except Bernier’s. We don’t help racists.

Any of you who are depicting Maxime Bernier as in any way a victim are assisting a racist. You are helping him. You should stop doing that.

That’s all I’ve got to say. (I had originally kept comments open, below, but I had too many people inviting me to kill myself. So comments are turned off.)

The picture above? It’s of my favourite places on Earth. It’s where you’ll find me.

Thanks.

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