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Dear Alberta:

Yes: I was Special Assistant to that dastardly Liberal Prime Minister, Jean Chretien. Yes: I worked on the presidential campaigns of the two Democratic Horsepeople of the Apocalypse, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton. And, yes: while I may have grown up in Alberta, I haven’t actually lived in Alberta for years.

So why should Albertans (generally) and UCP folks (specifically) listen to Yours Truly?

Well, listen or don’t listen. That’s up to you. But some tell me my campaign record ain’t entirely bad: I have helped win six majority governments, federally and provincially – and I helped secure 70 per cent of the vote in the last Toronto mayoral race, one of the biggest city contests on the planet.

Oh, and this: I love Alberta, and I enthusiastically support Western oil and gas. And I strongly feel that another Alberta NDP government is a bad, bad idea. Because Alberta New Democrats may claim to also support the province’s most important sector – but Alberta’s NDP is formally part of the federal NDP. And the federal NDP hates Western oil and gas.

So, the NDP can’t be permitted to form the next government in Alberta. How to prevent that?

Well, let’s look at how the United Conservative Party got so unpopular, shall we? Let’s examine why a sitting majority Premier was recently forced out by his own party, and why an Alberta NDP win remains a strong possibility.

There are four main reasons. One is this: Alberta has changed. The homophobic, xenophobic tendencies of some in the UCP have alienated urban Alberta voters – who are much more diverse and tolerant than some in the UCP are prepared to accept. So, the UCP needs a leader who attracts the support of Albertans of every colour, faith and sexual orientation.

Two: discipline – as in, lacking it. As Jason Kenney discovered the hard way, the discipline that was the hallmark of the Stephen Harper years, federally, has been sorely lacking in the UCP. Consultation with caucus, and respect for caucus, went out the window – and civil war broke out, big time. So, the UCP needs a leader who knows Harper-style discipline – but also Harper-style caucus management.

Three, knowing which fights to have with Ottawa – and which fights to avoid. Like it or not, energy is a shared jurisdiction between Ottawa and the provinces. It’s right there in the Constitution. That means finding a Premier who knows and understands Ottawa – but isn’t cowed by the federal Liberals, as Rachel Notley government would always be. A Premier who can go toe-to-toe with Justin Trudeau.

Fourth and finally: the UCP needs a winner. Danielle Smith is nice enough, but she did a secret deal with the Alberta Tories, and thereby blew apart Wildrose. Brian Jean is genial – but he loses more than he wins, and he has shown that he is better at division than unity. So, the UCP needs a leader who can win, and has a record of winning every election she has ever run in.

She? Yes, she, Alberta. Michelle Rempel-Garner.

Full disclosure: I know her. I like her. She’s a friend.

But, objectively, Rempel-Garner has what the UCP needs to win again. She fights for tolerance and diversity, and is better-aligned with modern Alberta. She was a senior Harper minister, and knows the value of discipline – and how to maintain it without alienating caucus. She knows the corridors of power in Ottawa because she’s been a longtime MP – but no one knows how to get under Trudeau’s skin better (trust me). Finally, she’s a winner in a way that Smith and Jean never were and never will be.

Will she run? No idea.

But she should.

Sincerely,

Warren

[Kinsella is a proud Albertan, and would still be there if the NDP hadn’t wrecked the place.]

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Random Ontario election observations, the morning after:

Centrism matters: Ontario PC Leader Doug Ford stuck resolutely to the political middle, which — in Canada, at least — is where all the votes are. Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca yanked his party too far to the ideological left. Today, Ford is still premier, stronger than ever, and Del Duca has resigned, unable to even win his own seat. Pierre Poilievre should take heed, but won’t.

Reaching out matters: During his election night victory speech, Ford explicitly appealed to “federal Liberal” voters, saying he welcomed and needed their support. As the stunning results rolled in on Thursday night, it was apparent he already had it. Ford has created a political coalition that is ideologically broad enough to include those who traditionally vote for Justin Trudeau, and those who voted previously for Mike Harris. That is an extraordinary political achievement.

Personality matters: Ford’s campaign message — Get It Done — was meaningless. Get it done? Get what done? By whom? When? What worked, instead, was Ford himself — he has honed an affable, amiable political persona that is populist in the true sense of the word: People can picture having him over for a barbecue, and they know he’d help clean up at the end.

Visuals matter: Visually, Ford ran a campaign that was bright, buoyant and blue. Del Duca’s campaign, meanwhile, was sweaty and awkward, and Del Duca himself was ribbed for wearing a Walmart-style vest that was blue — his opponent’s colour! Visuals matter because voters receive most of their political information — and make their political choices — based on what they see and hear, not what they read.

Campaign competence matters: Del Duca lost multiple candidates to scandal because he and his campaign team didn’t bother to properly vet them. The resulting micro-scandals threw him off-message for days. In some ridings, the hapless Ontario Liberal leader simply had no one running for him. In Ottawa, meanwhile, Ford needlessly lost an incumbent candidate because his campaign team refused to let him be seen in the capital in the immediate aftermath of a devastating wind storm — a storm that left tens of thousands without power.

Leaders matter: Ford ran the table — getting re-elected with a second huge majority, and forcing the election night resignations of both his main opponents. NDP Leader Andrea Horwath arrogantly stuck around too long, and voters simply got tired of her. Del Duca, meanwhile, was never a leader — he was just a former political staffer and lobbyist, and it showed. He was incapable of projecting leadership and inspiring confidence. Ford, meanwhile, became a leader — and was re-elected — by his performance during the pandemic, where he wildly exceeded everyone’s expectations.

Friends matter: With progressive policies and the promise of work, Ford and his much-liked labour minister worked tirelessly to capture the support of trade unions — and they got it, much to the astonishment of Liberals and New Democrats. By making unions his friends, Ford dismantled the powerful Working Families coalition, and thereby hobbled the Grits’ campaign.

Campaigns matter: Campaign strategists like to say that, but it isn’t always true. Sometimes, the best-funded, best-run campaigns can flounder — while penniless, hapless campaigns can capture hearts and minds. Doug Ford won — and won for his party and team — because he is a HOAG: A Hell Of A Guy. He was the very centre of his campaign, and he has shown himself to be a likable, easy-going sort of politician, one who — like Ralph Klein, Mel Lastman, Rene Levesque and my former boss Jean Chretien — won by being a plain-spoken regular guy who can make a mistake and admit it. By being understood, by connecting.

Voting matters: More than ten million Ontarians were entitled to vote. Less than two million voted for the victorious PCs, and slightly more than a million each for the Liberals and New Democrats. That means only about 43% of eligible voters did so — a shockingly low number. If democracy is to have any meaning, that needs to change. Now.

— Warren Kinsella advised a trade union active in the election.