• Few will go as far as Mainstreet’s boss did last night (see here), but something happened over Thanksgiving. Clearly.  The election had turned into a referendum on Stephen Harper, and folks gathered over the weekend to talk about what to do about that.  The NDP wasn’t an option anymore – the niqab, plus this stuff, is likely why – so the ABC folks started moving towards the Grits.  And they’re still moving.
• Quebec voters could consolidate still, behind the CPC.  But with the NDP down to single digits in Ontario, just about, la belle province may be the Tories’ last hope.  It feels like folks have settled in.  They don’t seem to be in a mood to change their minds, after such a long campaign.  And their mood is clearly not terribly favourable towards the incumbent.
• Anyway, here’s three predictive things about all that.  First, my prediction (and that of three senior Liberal friends) back in February, which now may just come true.  Second, last night’s prediction, suggesting that the LPC is the only party that stands to “win.” Third, the first Adler-Kinsella get together on Canada Talks on SiriusXM last night.  Have a great one.

#LPC win even if they don’t win next week. #CPC lose if they don’t win big next week. #NDP lose next week, no matter what. #cdnpoli #elxn42

— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) October 13, 2015

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Last week Oshawa, this week Nepean.  Wow.

The NDP candidate in Nepean – a guy named Sean Devine – retweeted on October 4 the graphic below, actually comparing the Conservatives to the Nazis, complete with swastikas and all that. It is still up on his Twitter feed.

As before, it is Liberals who brought this to my attention, not Conservatives.  Liberals want to win, but they won’t stoop as low as certain NDP candidate are (increasingly) doing.  Just gross.

UPDATE: And just like that – poof! @DevineSean’s Twitter account has been vanished! Good thing for Sean that not one of us knows how to do screen caps!

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• I am at a Justin Trudeau rally – as media! Son One is a Trudeau maniac, and asked me to take him. So I am at the back with a notepad, ever-observant for the first Adler-Kinsella segment on SiruisXM 167 tonight!
• Trudeau has some very impressive candidates here – James Maloney, Ahmed Hussen, Arif Vitani and others. The event is at the Cadillac Lounge on Queen West and is well-attended. Pic below and more to come.

 

UPDATE: Trudeau is losing his voice.  He stuck to his well-known talking points, however, in a brief speech – taxing the richest one per cent, railing against “divisions,” Liberals are the only party that provides “a progressive voice,” lots of references to the “real change” stuff, and so on – and the crowd liked it.

The place wasn’t packed, but it was well-attended, I’d say.  Lots of young people.  I said to a couple candidates in attendance (one who worked for me in a McGuinty war room, one who worked with me on the Ignatieff effort) that if young people come out en masse to vote, Harper loses.  If they don’t, he wins.  That’s what it comes down to, in these final days.

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• You know why people are lining up in record numbers at advance polling stations? BECAUSE THEY ARE SICK OF THIS STUPID ELECTION AND THEY WANT IT TO BE OVER, THAT’S WHY.
• So, here’s a poll.  It’s really accurate and scientific.  Vote here and then you don’t have to in one of those inconvenient ones that require you to leave your house.
• PS – If Team Ekos and Team Nanos want to go at each other in comments, go for it.  I don’t know which of you is right, but I don’t think both of you are wrong.

[polldaddy poll=9122725][polldaddy poll=9122725]

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• Heading out to get a 20 pound bird. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving with you and yours. 
• Here’s a cartoon that succinctly brings together this weekend, politically and gastronomically. The farmer is the politician; the turkeys – they’re us!

  

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• I’m feeling good, better than New Democrats feel. Picked up our Raptors tickets, ate at the Patrician, sent off the (final) book, got set for the first SiriusXM show, cleaned up before my Mom and cousin and others arrive, our great friends Ian and Jill are getting married, and I’m still married to a genius feminist supermodel. Not bad. 
• All that I have to pass along is this: Months ago – when the NDP were on top – I and many others could not figure out why the Cons were not aiming their well-oiled attack machine at Tom Mulcair and Co. I expressed puzzlement that to CPC friends.
• Said one senior CPC guy: “We need Trudeau 10 points lower than he is at the moment.” I didn’t understand that then, but I do now: the CPC never lost sight of the fact that the Liberal brand – notwithstanding the missteps of its various leaders – has staying power. It was their main threat. 
• I still think we are looking at a Conservative minority. Their core vote votes more often, and is made up of what David Cameron’s guys call “Shy Tories” It’s a growing constituency that hides from the pollsters, but comes out of hiding on election day.
• That said, I give big credit to both the CPC and LPC war rooms. The former never lost sight of their real target – and the latter never wavered from pushing the “change” mantra. The NDP? Well, the NDP aren’t turkeys, but they can be forgiven for feeling like turkeys on this 2015 Thanksgiving weekend.

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He’s blocked.

[Cheers from both the Left and Right erupt.]

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The NDP candidate in Oshawa, Mary Fowler, apparently thinks so.  She promoted the crap below on Twitter.

She did that a few weeks ago, so we checked again just before I posted this, to see if she had changed her mind.  She hadn’t.  So: her ongoing and enthusiastic approval of this sort of thing – to be clear, a picture equating Hitler with Harper – is a bloody disgrace.

And, an interesting side note: it was Liberals who sent this to me, not Tories.  They may disagree with Harper, but they think the NDP candidate in Oshawa needs to be making a full retraction and an apology, immediately.  And they’re right.

You can contact Mary Fowler here. Let her know what you think.

 

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• It’s cold, it’s wet, I’m sick of this election, and I’m sore from lifting a dock (long story, etc.): So here is your KCCCC day in tweets.  You’re welcome.

I’ve told #LPC friends angry about #CPC Niqab politicking to study history. It’s revealing. http://t.co/5kjvFgTsTV #elxn42 #cdnpoli

— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) October 9, 2015

Never do my Twitter notifications get as animated as when I’m RT’d by Ezra Levant or Warren Kinsella.

— Blake Robert (@BRinYWG) October 8, 2015

@Alduceppe Sondage Leger Francophones Qc seulement: NPD 31% Bloc 28% PLC 20% PC 20%

— Jean-Marc Leger (@JeanMarcLeger1) October 9, 2015

Ladies and gentlemen, it seems we’ll have a race for the last 10 days. #elxn42 http://t.co/jzLOlacOq0 pic.twitter.com/3Kcabw0uhS

— Bryan Breguet (@2closetocall) October 9, 2015

AND THE BEST TWEET OF ELECTION 42 IS…

@kinsellawarren KCCCCCCC Day 3,249 – we are almost out of hard tack & rum; crew are getting restive – pray for us

— Janii Stadelmaaan (@josspaperdesign) October 8, 2015

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