On “scandals”:

Gagnier will have zero effect on #LPC numbers, like Duffy had zero effect on #CPC’s. Scandals don’t move voters. http://t.co/XxBNicqlv2

— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) October 15, 2015

On how Harper could survive:

This scenario: @pmharper makes Throne Speech entirely about #TPP. #NDP will vote against, but would #LPC? #cdnpoli http://t.co/UZ16yY5vov

— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) October 15, 2015

On the nasty stuff flying around in the dying days:

A brothel on every street corner and medicinal marijuana in every, um, pot. https://t.co/aqc7R11Ub9

— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) October 15, 2015

On those who say Harper’s making a mistake hanging with the Fords:

To people who would never vote #CPC, sure. But in #topoli, Doug Ford would've won if campaign had gone 2 more weeks https://t.co/HvNcsV28vF

— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) October 15, 2015

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…and my SFH, who are getting together tonight, were the band who backed him the last time he took to a stage.  It was at the Festival of Friends, in his hometown of Hamilton.  We sucked (see the bad start), but he was awesome.  What a guy.

 

 

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• Look, I’m a Red Sox fan.  I ain’t jumping’ on no bandwagon.  But I’d fed the dogs, the wife was out with her girlfriends, the kids were all doing homework or out, and there were turkey leftovers in the fridge. So I watched the baseball game.
• It was the most exciting baseball game I’ve ever watched.  And that seventh inning – which people will be talking about until they die – was extraordinary.  And it got me to thinking: that seventh inning was like this election campaign.  And what good is a political analysis without some clichéd sports analogies, right? So here we go.
• The length of it, for starters.  The Jays-Rangers inning went for almost an hour, around 53 minutes.  This election campaign has dragged on for just about 80 days, which is basically two-and-half elections in one.  The average length of a major league baseball game inning is maybe 20 minutes, rule changes notwithstanding.  So last night’s seventh inning was, like the election, a hum-dinger.
• The game’s low point.  The deciding Jays-Rangers game reached its nadir – if you’re a Jays fan – when Toronto catcher Russell Martin threw the ball back to the pitcher – and it deflected off Shin-Soo Choo’s bat.  That, according to a bizarre MLB rule no one had ever heard of,  meant the ball was in play – and the Rangers’ Rougned Odor was allowed to score the tie-breaker.  The assembled Jay’s fans went nuts, with some idiots throwing full beer cans onto the field (and each other) – and delaying the game.   The Jays filed an official protest, but the run counted.
• The election’s low point? Well, for me, it was the niqab.  The Conservatives and the Bloc weren’t breaking any official rules when they raised the issue – they had the right to do so, I guess.  But they shouldn’t have done so.  It brought out the worst in many people (like the Jays fans), and it was an ugly way to get ahead (like the Texas Rangers).  That said, it inspired a bit of heroism – in particular, Messrs. Mulcair and Trudeau saying they disagreed, and at their own peril in their home province of Quebec, too.  The Jays got past the ugliness, and so did the politicians who spoke up for tolerance.  In the end, it didn’t hurt Trudeau electorally, and it helped Mulcair reputationally – I, for one, will always admire the NDP leader’s guts.
• Lotsa errors.  The Jays won, sure.  But if Jays fans are being honest with themselves, as they nurse hangovers this morning, they’ll admit the Rangers largely handed the game to them, with  a trio of bizarre errors in the seventh  – dropped balls, missed balls, and balls going awry.  That set the stage for Jose Bautista to send a rocket into left-centre field –  a three-run homer that put the Jays ahead 6-3. (I’m in the minority, but I didn’t like his little bat flip – he was entitled to do it, like Justin Trudeau musing yesterday about a majority, but it was potentially dangerous.)  And that was the game, pretty much.
• All of the teams competing in Election 42, however, had errors.  Not just one.  All of them offered up the saddest gaggle of candidates anyone can remember – truthers, anti-Semites, racists, stalkers, haters, Hitler comparisons and even a guy who peed in a cup when he thought no one was looking.  It was pretty pathetic.  It was a disgrace.  And they did it to themselves, too.  Unforced social media errors, right across the board.
• The big hit.  Joey Bats, natch.  He propelled the ball into the parking lot, and it will keep rolling through Toronto’s consciousness for years to come.  But all of us in Toronto – if we are again honest with ourselves – never expected it.  We expected to do what Toronto teams always do, which is choke.  Similarly, the Liberals.  After they squandered their pre-playoffs high, we (or at least I) expected them to continue to do badly when it counted, during the election. But Trudeau swung true – during the debates, mainly, after that CPC ad had lowered expectations about him to the sub-basement – and he connected.  The ad that pulled him down also made him soar.  Similarly Bautista – the Hellish seventh inning pissed him off, and he turned it into a win.
• Anyway, the foregoing is taking politics and sports comparisons to an absurd level, I know.  But Election 42 will always remind me of inning seven – the length of both, the low points that became high points, the errors, the big dramatic play.  That’s just me, of course, readying to retire KCCCC until Election 43 happens (or until the Lord takes me home to the field of dreams, whichever comes first).  What do you think, gentle baseball/politics fan?
• Oh, and in case you don’t think politics and baseball aren’t inextricably linked – the Jays are playing the Royals on Election Day! Can you imagine Major League Baseball doing this on a U.S. Election Day?

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I love this man. (H/T L. Vanstone)

I think I have a new favourite @BlueJays #Kawasaki pic.twitter.com/l0E30TaEzO

— Lyndsey Vanstone (@VanstoneL) October 15, 2015

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…and the cat is now out of the bag. If you’re ever out my way in West Yorkshire, I’ll give you a big discount on the Cheesy Gordita Crunch.  God bless.

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• Few will go as far as Mainstreet’s boss did last night (see here), but something happened over Thanksgiving. Clearly.  The election had turned into a referendum on Stephen Harper, and folks gathered over the weekend to talk about what to do about that.  The NDP wasn’t an option anymore – the niqab, plus this stuff, is likely why – so the ABC folks started moving towards the Grits.  And they’re still moving.
• Quebec voters could consolidate still, behind the CPC.  But with the NDP down to single digits in Ontario, just about, la belle province may be the Tories’ last hope.  It feels like folks have settled in.  They don’t seem to be in a mood to change their minds, after such a long campaign.  And their mood is clearly not terribly favourable towards the incumbent.
• Anyway, here’s three predictive things about all that.  First, my prediction (and that of three senior Liberal friends) back in February, which now may just come true.  Second, last night’s prediction, suggesting that the LPC is the only party that stands to “win.” Third, the first Adler-Kinsella get together on Canada Talks on SiriusXM last night.  Have a great one.

#LPC win even if they don’t win next week. #CPC lose if they don’t win big next week. #NDP lose next week, no matter what. #cdnpoli #elxn42

— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) October 13, 2015

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Last week Oshawa, this week Nepean.  Wow.

The NDP candidate in Nepean – a guy named Sean Devine – retweeted on October 4 the graphic below, actually comparing the Conservatives to the Nazis, complete with swastikas and all that. It is still up on his Twitter feed.

As before, it is Liberals who brought this to my attention, not Conservatives.  Liberals want to win, but they won’t stoop as low as certain NDP candidate are (increasingly) doing.  Just gross.

UPDATE: And just like that – poof! @DevineSean’s Twitter account has been vanished! Good thing for Sean that not one of us knows how to do screen caps!

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• I am at a Justin Trudeau rally – as media! Son One is a Trudeau maniac, and asked me to take him. So I am at the back with a notepad, ever-observant for the first Adler-Kinsella segment on SiruisXM 167 tonight!
• Trudeau has some very impressive candidates here – James Maloney, Ahmed Hussen, Arif Vitani and others. The event is at the Cadillac Lounge on Queen West and is well-attended. Pic below and more to come.

 

UPDATE: Trudeau is losing his voice.  He stuck to his well-known talking points, however, in a brief speech – taxing the richest one per cent, railing against “divisions,” Liberals are the only party that provides “a progressive voice,” lots of references to the “real change” stuff, and so on – and the crowd liked it.

The place wasn’t packed, but it was well-attended, I’d say.  Lots of young people.  I said to a couple candidates in attendance (one who worked for me in a McGuinty war room, one who worked with me on the Ignatieff effort) that if young people come out en masse to vote, Harper loses.  If they don’t, he wins.  That’s what it comes down to, in these final days.

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• You know why people are lining up in record numbers at advance polling stations? BECAUSE THEY ARE SICK OF THIS STUPID ELECTION AND THEY WANT IT TO BE OVER, THAT’S WHY.
• So, here’s a poll.  It’s really accurate and scientific.  Vote here and then you don’t have to in one of those inconvenient ones that require you to leave your house.
• PS – If Team Ekos and Team Nanos want to go at each other in comments, go for it.  I don’t know which of you is right, but I don’t think both of you are wrong.

[polldaddy poll=9122725][polldaddy poll=9122725]

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• Heading out to get a 20 pound bird. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving with you and yours. 
• Here’s a cartoon that succinctly brings together this weekend, politically and gastronomically. The farmer is the politician; the turkeys – they’re us!

  

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