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Heading out to a fancy dinner and then a party with the most amazing woman. She’s beautiful and brilliant.

Have a great evening, all – and an even better 2018!

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My former Sun colleague Antonella Artuso got in touch with me to seek my opinion on the coming Ontario and Toronto elections. Her story is here.

And my full response to her excellent questions are here:

Provincially, the Ontario Liberals have a very unpopular leader but a very durable party brand. The Ontario PCs have a not-bad brand, but not nearly enough people know their leader. And the Ontario NDP have a very popular leader – but few folks trust their party in the role of government.

The election will come down to the campaign. Campaigns matter. And I’d say any one of the three parties has a shot at winning – if they have the best campaign.

Municipally, I know both John Tory and Doug Ford and like them both. Doug’s problem is that John is seen as a decent and honest guy – and an antidote to the crazy Ford Nation years. John’s challenge is that the Ford Nation is still a factor.

On balance, I think John will win. There’s no progressive challenger – and Doug needs one in the race to have a fighting chance.

People like John, and likeability matters in this business!

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It’s a cliché, sure. It’s hackneyed and overdone, true. It has been done a million times, agreed.

But it’s fun: the columnist’s year-end political winner/loser list! And, this year, regular readers got in on the act!

But. However.

Just as Yours Truly was typing up this one, a bombshell landed. The federal ethics commissioner ruled that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau broke multiple federal ethics rules when he hopped onto the Aga Khan’s private helicopter—and stayed on his island retreat—over the holidays in 2016.

In her 74-page ruling, Conflict of Interest and Ethics Commissioner Mary Dawson ruled that Trudeau violated the Conflict of Interest Act when he and his family accepted the trip.  She also dismissed various complaints about l’Affaire Aga Khan, but so what. She had found him, a sitting prime minister, guilty of a serious conflict of interest.

Now, this writer had previously and vigorously defended Trudeau on the Aga Khan mess, but none of that particularly matters anymore. While the penalty is puny, Dawson’s decision is something we will be hearing about for years to come. I don’t think this has ever happened to a prime minister before. Ever.

A very unhappy-looking Trudeau accordingly had no option but to accept the report, apologize, and promise never to do it again.

That, then, is the political screw-up of the year, and it came at the very end of the year, too. The other contenders, up until that point, were (a) Trudeau et al. sucking up to Donald Trump, and having nothing to show for it; (b) Andrew Scheer’s relationship with the racist/anti-Semitic luminaries at The Rebel; (c) Jagmeet Singh and his party going into the witness protection program right after their leadership vote, and, naturally, (d) Melanie Joly with her serial screw-ups: Netflix, Canada 150, Holocaust memorial, $6 million non-hockey hockey rink, and doing nothing about the death of dozens of Canadian newspapers.

Those were all solid contenders, but the Trudeau-Aga Khan mess is, indisputably, the political screw-up of the year. (And the PMO staffer who let this happen? You need to be fired, pronto.)

But what about the biggest political win in 2017? Trudeau had a pair, with flipping two CPC ridings in by-elections; Scheer had his come-from-behind leadership victory, narrowly beating out a cocky frontrunner; and, a turban-wearing Sikh man won a party leadership. Write-in candidates included Chrystia Freeland thumbing her nose at the dictator Vladimir Putin—as well as Jason Kenney creating, then taking over, the United Conservative Party in Alberta.

But my regular readers (and me) were nearly-unanimous: something wonderful was said—about us (as a people), and about the victor (as a man) —when Jagmeet Singh won the New Democratic Party leadership on the first ballot. In the Trump-Brexit era, where ignorance and bigotry seemingly hold sway everywhere, Canadians—of every political persuasion—were quietly proud that a bearded, brown-skinned man with a turban could be considered a possible prime minister. A huge win for him, and for us as a people, too.

Most and least-successful politicians varied. But, for the most part, regular readers and commenters agreed: Brad Wall and Justin Trudeau were the top two most-successful politicians in Canada in 2017. Popular write-in candidates, however, included the aforementioned Freeland and Kenney, but also Jane Philpott, and Montreal’s new mayor.

Least-successful politicians?  There were plenty of those. Melanie Joly always ranks high on everyone’s naughty list—and particularly among Liberals, who remain privately livid that such a lightweight could be shoe-horned into cabinet. Bill Morneau, the Liberal Party’s human piñata, also received his fair share of brickbats. Singh, too, for winning the leadership on a wave of expectation and promise—and then promptly disappearing into a witness protection program somewhere.

But it was Andrew Scheer who was seen, almost-universally, as a dud. Some correspondents critiqued the Conservative Party leader for turning invisible (à la Singh) right after his leadership win —and others criticized him for being far too visible (as in his Lynchian, saturnalian “I’m Andrew” ad). Either way, Scheer has underwhelmed many. He is, as my wife put it, remarkably unremarkable.

And the story that will dominate Canadian politics in 2018? Will it be the end of NAFTA? Election upheaval in Ontario, New Brunswick, Quebec? #MeToo finally landing on Parliament Hill and exacting divine retribution?

Respondents were all over the map on this one.  Some thought the, ahem, potpourri of pot laws will be the big story. Others: “God knows, but something Trump-related.” On the provincial front, some ventured to say that Liberals would be returned in New Brunswick—but lose narrowly in Quebec and Ontario.

Personally, this writer remains in awe of #MeToo. It has swept aside the rich, the famous and the powerful—and it shows no sign of slowing down. When it hits Ottawa in 2018, as it will, it will strike with righteous (and overdue) fury—and it will claim the political careers of many creepy little men.

Lots of opinions, lots of dissent. At the end of the year—at the end of the column—one thing unites us all:

Thank God we live in Trudeau’s Canada—and not Trump’s America!

Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukah and a wonderful 2018 to all.

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It is truly something else.  Among other things, it means that Trudeau needs to get better prepared before he scrums again on this mess.

And it means CBC needs to get Barton back to the Hill, where she can do more of this sort of grilling. Fearless. Wow.

The first thirty seconds here are brutal.  This is an election ad.

Rosemary Barton presses Prime Minister Justin Trudeau about his decision to vacation on the private island owned by the Aga Khan.

Read more: https://t.co/piRo8tdZ62 pic.twitter.com/m2aq3jf3Wc

— The National (@CBCTheNational) December 20, 2017

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Yes. So says the Ethics commissioner:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau broke multiple federal ethics rules when he accepted a ride on the Aga Khan’s private helicopter and stayed on his private island over the holidays in 2016, the ethics commissioner has ruled.

In a ruling posted on the website of the Office of the Conflict of Interest and Ethics Commissioner Wednesday morning, Commissioner Mary Dawson said that her investigation into two complaints about the trip found that Trudeau violated the Conflict of Interest Act when he and his family accepted the trip but also dismissed several of the specific violations brought within those complaints.

Well.

I have previously defended Trudeau on this “controversy,” but that doesn’t matter anymore. While the penalty is puny, this decision is something we will be hearing about for years. I don’t think this has ever happened to a Prime Minister before. Ever.

Trudeau has no option but to accept the report, apologize, and promise never to do it again. And staff heads need to roll at PMO, I think. Who let this happen?

Anyway. Those year-end interviews aren’t going to be a lot of fun, now.

Nope.

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I don’t put much stock in Angus Reid’s little Premier’s popularity poll thing, and neither should you.  I think the Reid folks do it mainly for fun, and to get some free publicity, and it unfailingly it provides both.  Their release is here.

That said, a few observations:

• Brad Wall, unless I’m wrong, will go down as perhaps the most-liked provincial Premier in recent memory
• John Horgan should be enjoying more of a honeymoon
• Dwight Ball, once politically DOA, is somehow back – how come?
• Brian Pallister, who has fallen figuratively and literally, could very well be a one-term wonder
• Philippe Couillard has been trying to please everyone, and has ended up pleasing no one – he’s in trouble
• Rachel Notley up? Jason Kenney needs to consider the possibility that his extreme social conservatism is driving partisan Alberta Liberals and Alberta Party folks to the NDP Premier
• Brian Gallant must be happy he didn’t go through with that snap/surprise early election this Fall, eh?
• Stephen McNeil: I have no comment, and you likely don’t either
• Kathleen Wynne rounds out the bottom, again, but is up for the third consecutive Reid poll – she’s headed in the right direction

What does it all mean, O Smart Readers? Comments are open!

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That didn’t take long.

Last Monday Monday morning, this space wondered why the #MeToo movement had yet to alight in Ottawa.  Seventy-two hours later – and just as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was about to take the stage at his annual Christmas party – TVA broke a major story: a senior staff person in Trudeau’s own office was under investigation.

TVA was the first to disclose that Trudeau’s deputy director of operations, Claude-Éric Gagné, was being investigated for “inappropriate behavior.”  Gagné has been on leave since November, TVA reported.While Gagné’s name is known, Trudeau actually refuses to name him. The Prime Minister is also refusing to provide any details about the allegations, but CBC News has confirmed what TVA first revealed – that the alleged wrongdoer was Gagné, and that the allegations involved “inappropriate behaviour.”

Problematic, here, is this: (a) we don’t know who the investigator is (b) we don’t know his or her mandate (c) we don’t know who is paying him or her and (d) we don’t know what powers the independent investigator actually has.  We need to.

A principle of natural law is that you cannot investigate yourself. For this probe to be meaningful, the independent investigator needs to truly investigate – and truly be independent.

That said, Gagné – who is innocent until proven otherwise, of course – is perhaps the tip of the proverbial iceberg.  For days, Ottawa’s corridors of power having been buzzing about a coming media bombshell.  A major news organization has been probing sexual misconduct by elected and unelected officials.  And the expectation is that the revelations will bring to a speedy (and deserved) end to many political careers.

That, too, is one of the most positive outcomes of the #MeToo cultural revolution: since the Harvey Weinstein story broke, many victims have felt that they can finally step forward, and name names.  They have finally felt that they will be believed.  They need to be.

Case in point: after the Hill Times published my column, this writer received multiple calls, emails and direct messages about the two men I’d written about.  Two women stated that they, too, had been harassed by the nameless former journalist, and provided new details about what had happened to them.  And one individual – with intimate knowledge of Ottawa’s journalistic and political heavy-hitters – confirmed that statements about the other man, apparently in the form of affidavits, exist.

Hollywood, major media organizations, Capitol Hill in Washington: in recent weeks, all of these places have seen harassers, abusers and rapists driven out.  It was highly unlikely, then, that Ottawa would continue to be immune.  During this writer’s days on the Hill – working as a Special Assistant to Jean Chretien and then as a Chief of Staff – stories about sexual misconduct were endemic.  It is highly unlikely, in the intervening years, that the problem has disappeared.  The names of these “men” were known.

Why not name names, then?  Because it is up to the victims to decide that, and not anyone else. One of the women I heard from told me a horrible story about a man still working on Parliament Hill.  She provided a great deal of detail.  But she made clear that she did not want her name used, or the story told now.  Her wishes need to be respected.

But, for the many other women who have endured in silence, and who are now considering whether it is time to tell their story, we say: it is also your decision.  It can only be your decision.  But you are not without options.

Here is a list of places you can turn to:

• House of Commons Chief Human Resources Officer: Pierre Parent oversees the office that investigates abuse complaints on the Hill. His phone number is 613-992-0100.
  His email is parent@parl.gc.ca.
• House Respectful Workplaces Program: Myriam Beauparlant manages this program, and ultimately reports to Parent. Her phone number is 613-996-2068.  Her email is beauparlant@parl.gc.ca.
• Party Whips: Some complaints originate with the main party whips – which can problematic for women who want to make complaints about the whip’s partisan colleagues, of course. That said, there is no evidence that any of the whips have been anything but diligent during the lifespan of the current Parliament.  The Liberal whip, then, is Pablo Rodriguez, at 613-995-0580.  His email is rodriguez@parl.gc.ca.  The Conservative whip is Mark Strahl, at 613-995-2291 and mark.strahl@parl.gc.ca.  The NDP whip, finally, is Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet, and her number is 613-992-0336, while her email is marjolaine.boutin-sweet@parl.gc.ca.
• Police: Many cases of sexual harassment constitute a crime.  For those who have been the victim of one, the mandate of the RCMP’s Parliamentary Protective Service includes providing police services to Parliamentarians, Hill employees and visitors.  They have policing jurisdiction over the Hill.  Their inquiries number is (613) 943-6530; their email PPSCommsSPP@pps-spp.parl.gc.ca.

For those who have heard or experienced something, there is always the news media – who, in Canada and the United States, have been at the forefront of exposing sexual harassment and sexual violence cases.  And, in official Ottawa, a good media listener is never hard to find.

Whatever route you choose – and however much you wish to keep confidential – is up to you.  And only you can now if it is time to tell your story.

But if this man can provide two pieces of advice, it is this: if you do not act, the abuser will almost certainly continue to abuse other women.

And, of course, there has never been a better time than now.

Because #MeToo is working.

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